Report on Syrian Issue - Casualties

NCF daily Report on Syria – Casualties – Report dated 7 August 2012 (evening)

This report is the latest in our series on Syria. Today’s report is in two parts:

1       NCF Casualty estimates and

2    All other Casualty estimates. The second half of this latter report is so extensive that we have only included the summary here under the title “Casualties in more detail”. The full background by region of Syria can be accessed on the NCF Syria blog on the following link: FULL SYRIA CASUALTY FIGURES

Casualties – The NCF casualty estimates

We must again caution you that there are no independent sources (other than the occasional news report). However now that SANA is again reporting its claims as to numbers of rebel fighters killed we at least have a broader set of figures from which to make our estimates. The casualty figures for “government dead” that the NCF uses in this report are based on those from the Syrian Observatory and may be high. We hope you will use your discernment. The main value of these figures is as an indication of a trend. We are going to give you our casualty estimates and then give you data from the other sources upon which they are based so that you can arrive at your own conclusions. The full background data upon which those other casualty estimates are based can be found on the NCF Syria blog on the link listed above.

Those killed in the past month

The NCF has prepared casualty estimates for the entire month of July. We revise our calculation method from time to time depending on data available. But with that caveat our totals for July are that 4,641 people were killed last month in the Syrian civil war breaking down as follows: 2,789 civilians killed; 733 rebel fighters killed; 1,119 government dead (predominantly Syrian Army). Thus:

CASUALTIES FOR  JULY	CIVILIANS	REBLS	GOVERNMENT
01.07.12	58	10	19
WEEK 2.07-8.07	462	70	191
WEEK 9.07-15.07	454	170	237
WEEK 16.07-22.07	848	211	348
WEEK 23.07-29.07	829	199	228
30.07.12	97	26	34
31.07.12	41	47	62
TOTAL	2789	733	1119

• A new counting method has been applied to Monday 30.07 and Tuesday 31.07 (LCC figure - highest rebels figure per area).
• Government figures are those given by the SOHR.

Those killed in the past week

The NCF estimates based on all available sources are as follows. Note that for the first time we are listing rebel dead as higher than government dead. In part the fact that we have changed our method of calculation for our estimates for rebel dead very slightly may be a factor. But undoubtedly, the sheer scale of the onslaught on Aleppo has resulted in higher rebel casualties. Civilians in rebel held areas have fled, leaving rebel forces particularly vulnerable. One NCF source close to the Syrian government told us today: “They call it ‘cleansing Aleppo’. They say it may take some time. How can it take some time? They are using extremely heavy bombardment by air force and artillery. It looks like they are emptying all their ammunition into the rebel held areas of Aleppo. It is very very brutal. It can’t take time.”

Specifically: Government troops have been placing tanks and armoured vehicles in southwest Aleppo in the Hamadaniya neighbourhood.  Attack helicopters have continually bombarded Hanano district and fighting has also intensified in Bab Antakya, Aziziyeh and Sabaa Bahrat. The remaining UN monitors in Aleppo were moved out of the city back to Damascus because of worsening violence.

CIVILIAN CASUALTIES

(LCC figure minus highest rebel casualty figure)

Date	Civilian casualties
Mon 30	21
Tues 31	35
Wed 01	121
Thu 02	78
Fri 03	104
Sat 04	95
Sun 05	37
TOTAL	491

REBEL CASUALTIES

(Rebel casualty figures seem are now being calculated on the highest reported figure per district per day)

Date	Rebel casualties
Mon 23	79
Tues 24	52
Wed 25	59
Thu 26	52
Fri 27	33
Sat 28	47
Sun 29	87
TOTAL	379

GOVERNMENT CASUALTIES

(The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights is the only organisation that has consistent figures for government casualties)

Date	Government casualties
Mon 30	34
Tues 31	62
Wed 01	45
Thu 02	43
Fri 03	19
Sat 04	52
Sun 05	42
TOTAL	297

Weekly Casualty estimates

The number of civilian casualties has remained high during the past week. The number of government combatants killed has also remained high. The number of rebel dead has been constantly underreported in our view (even accounting for guerrilla tactics) as a consequence of which we have reconsidered our method of calculating rebel dead – changing from taking the highest available figure per day, to the highest available figure per district per day. This would account for a slight increase in our count of the numbers of rebel dead – not the massive increase we have seen this past week. This is by far the highest number of rebel dead we have ever recorded:

Civilian dead:

491 dead this past week ending 6 August

829 dead last week ending 30 July

848 dead the week ending 23 July

454 dead the week ending 16 July

462 dead the week ending 9 July

665 dead the week ending 2 July

373 dead the week ended 25 June 

350 dead the week ended 18 June 

105 dead the week ended 11 June 

Rebel dead:

379 dead this past week ending 6 August

199 dead last week ending 30 July

211 dead the week ending 23 July

170 dead the week ending 16 July

70 dead the week ending 9 July

107 dead the week ending 2 July

77 dead the week ended 25 June

41 dead the week ended 18 June 

40 dead the week ended 11 June 

Government dead:

297 dead this past week ending 6 August

228 dead this past week ending 30 July

348 dead last week ending 23 July

237 dead the week ending 16 July

191 dead last week ending 9 July

256 dead the week ending 2 July

143 dead the week ended 25 June

53 dead the week ended 18 June 

92 dead the week ended 11 June 

Casualties in more detail

The numbers of reported casualties follows in a table in which the source is given and a day by day breakdown of totals. For more detail including a breakdown of these figures by region go to the NCF Syria blog on this link.

TOTAL CIVILIAN CASUALTIES

	SYRIAN OBSERVATORY FOR HUMAN RIGHTS	VIOLATIONS DOCUMENTING CENTRE	SYRIAN ARAB NEWS AGENCY	SYRIAN NETWORK FOR HUMAN RIGHTS	LOCAL COORDINATION COMMITTEES	SYRIAN SHUHADA
Mon 30	52	77	NA	136	100	125
Tues 31	43	64	NA	NA	87	84
Wed 01	115	134	NA	NA	180	179
Thu 02	112	141	14	NA	130	158
Fri 03	75	106	NA	141	137	NA
Sat 04	134	179	20		142	NA
Sun 05	111	123	NA	131	124	NA

TOTAL REBEL CASUALTIES

	SYRIAN OBSERVATORY FOR HUMAN RIGHTS	VIOLATIONS DOCUMENTING CENTRE	SYRIAN ARAB NEWS AGENCY	SYRIAN NETWORK FOR HUMAN RIGHTS	LOCAL COORDINATION COMMITTEES	SYRIAN SHUHADA
Mon 30	22	17	65	NA	NA	17
Tues 31	43	20	40	NA	NA	19
Wed 01	21	18	43	NA	NA	16
Thu 02	29	23	35	NA	NA	24
Fri 03	21	12	21	NA	NA	NA
Sat 04	36	17	25	NA	NA	NA
Sun 05	11	6	82	NA	NA	NA

TOTAL GOVERNMENT CASUALTIES

	SYRIAN OBSERVATORY FOR HUMAN RIGHTS	VIOLATIONS DOCUMENTING CENTRE	SYRIAN ARAB NEWS AGENCY	SYRIAN NETWORK FOR HUMAN RIGHTS	LOCAL COORDINATION COMMITTEES	SYRIAN SHUHADA
Mon 30	34	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
Tues 31	62
Wed 01	45
Thu 02	43
Fri 03	19
Sat 04	52
Sun 05	42

The LCC figures do not distinguish between civilians and rebel soldiers (lumping both groups together as “martyrs”). As the LCC is a local organisation on the ground in Syria, we have made a decision that for the present we will use their figures for NCF estimates of civilian dead (but first deducting our totals for rebel fighters killed).