US accuses Syria, Iran over Lebanon tensions

Hard to tell the truth anymore - the Middle East is awash with disinformation. Is this more of the same? It would help if the US sent an Ambassador to Syria for heaven's sake:

Khaleej Times - 29 October, 2010
The United States on Thursday accused Syria and Iran of fuelling tensions in Lebanon, which a top UN envoy called part of a “hurricane blowing up” in the Middle East.
The United States said Syria was illicitly arming Hezbollah and other militias and showing “flagrant disregard” for the country’s independence. Syria rejected the attack.

Conspiracy Theories

Well this about beats all when it comes to conspiracy theories. What do you think? This was sent over to us by RPS (the Syrian opposition group):

Assad's Intelligence Services Helped Kill al-Mabhouh
"If you question what Assad has given-up in return for US appeasement, then look no further than the killing of al-Mabhouh RPS believes was facilitated by Syrian intelligence in cooperation with the west. Notice the silence of the Iranian regime due to Iranian coordination with Assad knowing that less pressure on Syria will help Assad, clandestinely, further Iranian influence as we have seen in Syrian training on the SA-2 missiles of Hezbollah on Syrian soil and Syrian intransigence on a nuclear program Iran may well be the ultimate beneficiary."

Widow tells press Syria to blame for killing

This is a fascinating story. Rumours and conspirasy theories abound. At the one extreme, Syrian "inside" gossip is that this was done by the Syrians to please the Americans. At the other extreme, European "inside" gossip is that the man was never killed at all but that the whole thing was a ruse and he has gone into hiding with a new identity.

This - the latest of many conspiracy theories, was sent us by Israel's peace now people:

Haaretz - Rumors abounded in the months prior to Mughniyah`s death regarding a rift between himself and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. The rumors were that Mughniyah was attempting to take over command of the militant organization. Mughniyah headed Hezbollah`s operations branch serving in a role similar to chief of staff.

TO VIEW FULL ITEM CLICK HERE

Anatomy of Syrian-Israeli Tensions

This came in from Oded in Jerusalem. It makes interesting reading:

Jerusalem Center Strategic Affairs Unit

Syria served as a primary conduit for the build-up of Iranian-backed Hizbullah prior to the outbreak of the Second Lebanon War in July 2006. Damascus supplied the majority of the heavy-payload rockets Hizbullah fired at Israel.

The Syrian-Israeli military balance has been characterized by a gross asymmetry in Syria's favor in standing active-service formations along the Syrian-Israeli border. In October 1973, Israel was forced to repel a massive Syrian ground assault with only 177 tanks against a total Syrian force of 1,400 tanks, providing an advantage for Syrian armor of more than eight to one.

Syria has undertaken a massive military build-up over the past few years, focusing primarily on Scud (B, C, and D) heavy rockets and chemical warheads. Syria has become a regional superpower in chemical weaponry.

Russia is providing state-of-the-art weaponry and military technology to Syria, and is reopening a Russian naval base on the Syrian coast. Additionally, Iran's huge petrodollar-driven financing capability has played a major role in Syrian weapons procurement.

Syria's destabilizing role in the region was underscored by Gen. George W. Casey Jr., former U.S. Commander in Iraq, who confirmed that Syria has acted as a primary line of supply for weaponry and volunteers that continue to stream unfettered over the Syrian-Iraqi border to support the Iraqi insurgency against U.S. and coalition forces.

One of Syria's prime motivations in its current military behavior is to free itself of international pressure in the context of its continuing involvement in destabilizing Lebanon and with regard to its suspected main role in the murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.

Syrian Rockets Hit Northern Israel in the Second Lebanon War

The report of Israeli air force activity over northeastern Syria along the Turkish-Syrian border on September 6 comes in the context of disturbing trends in Syrian military behavior. Syria served as a primary conduit for the build-up of Iranian-backed Hizbullah prior to the outbreak of the Second Lebanon War in July 2006. Damascus supplied the majority of the heavy-payload rockets Hizbullah fired at Israel, including, 220mm rockets and 302mm rockets.1 Syrian-supplied rocket warheads usually contained anti-personnel munitions - a mixture of lethal explosives and steel balls or fragments.

Syria has also increased the tempo of its military exercises and has removed roadblocks that existed for years between Damascus and the city of Kuneitra in the Golan Heights that is adjacent to its front line with Israel.

Historically, the Syrian-Israeli military balance has been characterized by a gross asymmetry in Syria's favor in standing active-service formations along the Syrian-Israeli border. While Syria maintains its army on battle-ready status, the bulk of the Israeli army is organized around army reserve units that are only mobilized in the event of an imminent attack. For example, in October 1973, Israel was forced to repel a massive Syrian ground assault with only 177 tanks against a total Syrian force of 1,400 tanks that stretched back from the Golan Heights to Damascus, providing an advantage for Syrian armor of more than eight to one.

Key Factors in Syrian Behavior

At present, Syria's behavior is a function of the following factors:

The Syrian perception that it has a realistic military option against Israel based on their view of Hizbullah's successes in last summer's war.

Syria's continued sponsorship of radical Palestinian Islamic terror groups including Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Hamas, Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), and other Jihadi organizations.

A massive Syrian military build-up focusing primarily on Scud (B, C, and D) heavy rockets and chemical warheads, with a massive commensurate increase in military spending over the past few years. The Syrian armament build-up in recent years has included a major investment in chemical weaponry, in which Syria has become a regional superpower. It is important to stress that Damascus' strategic decision to build up its military arsenal preceded the U.S. decision to provide advanced military weaponry to Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Israel.

Syria has also increased the tempo of its military exercises, and has enhanced its infrastructure on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights.

Syria's recent military build-up is all the more destabilizing in view of the decision by Russia to upgrade its influence in the region by providing state-of-the-art Russian weaponry and military technology, and to reopen a Russian naval base on the Syrian coast. Additionally, Iran's huge petrodollar-driven financing capability has played a major role in Syrian weapons procurement.

Syria's Destabilizing Role in the Region

Current Syrian-Israeli tensions are also punctuated by the additional Syrian strategic need to free itself of international pressure in the context of its continuing involvement in destabilizing Lebanon, as well as Damascus' interest in shaking off international pressure stemming from Syria's suspected main role in the murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.

Syria's destabilizing role in the region was underscored by Gen. George W. Casey Jr., former U.S. Commander in Iraq, who confirmed that Syria has acted as a primary line of supply for weaponry and volunteers that continue to stream unfettered over the Syrian-Iraqi border to support the Iraqi insurgency against U.S. and coalition forces.2 At this sensitive juncture, it is in the interests of both Syria and Israel to prevent further deterioration of the situation.

* * *

Notes
1. Uzi Rubin, "Hisbullah's Rocket Campaign Against Northern Israel: A Preliminary Report," Jerusalem Issue Brief, Volume 6, Number 10, Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, August 31, 2006,
2. Thomas E. Ricks, "General: Iraqi Insurgents Directed from Syria," Washington Post, December 17, 2004,

Rice breaks the ice with Syria, but not Iran

· Iraq conference backdrop for high level discussion
· US praises Damascus's counter-insurgency effort

Ian Black in Sharm el-Sheikh
Friday May 4, 2007
The Guardian

Efforts to stabilise Iraq by involving its neighbours in talks brought Condoleezza Rice together with Syria's foreign minister yesterday for an ice-breaking meeting but talks with her Iranian opposite number, Manouchehr Mottaki, failed to happen.

The US secretary of state's session with Walid Moualem on the margins of an international conference on Iraq followed rare praise from the US military that Syria was doing more to seal its border with Iraq to foreign fighters joining the Sunni insurgency.

The high-profile diplomatic encounter in the Egyptian resort of Sharm el-Sheikh was the first of its kind since Syria, Iran's only Arab ally, was accused of being behind the murder of the former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri in February 2005. It denies the charge and is resisting calls for a UN tribunal to investigate the killing.

TO READ FULL STORY CLICK HERE

Farid Ghadry, from the Syrian opposition, has sent us the following opinion piece on the Rice meeting, posted on the Reform Party of Syria website.

A Safe Iraq is the Purpose
Farid Ghadry, RPS,Washington DC
May 4, 2007
With Iraq becoming the center of gravity of US foreign policy in the Middle East, the Syrian opposition is witnessing some disturbing events taking place that look like a reversal of the past policy by the US in its approach to dealing with the Assad regime. But a closer look may reveal a different perspective...

After the meeting yesterday, the White House spokesman Tony Snow downplayed its importance when he said: "Any conversations would not be bilateral discussions. They would not be formal negotiations." He added: "The one and only topic, again, in Sharm el- Sheikh is to say: 'It is time now to step forward and support the government of Iraq. ' That is the strong message that is being sent." It is obvious from the narrow goal that precipitated this meeting to take place that Iraq and only Iraq was the central issue...

TO READ OPINION PIECE IN FULL CLICK HERE

Rafik Harriri

Farid sends a note of a March 20 (today) Wall Street Journal article - by William Harris. We summarise with the caveat that this issue needs burying to enable progress:

A crucial turning point has arrived in the U.N investigation into the murder of former Lebanese prime minister, Rafik Hariri, in February 2005.

A report by the chief of the investigation, Belgian Serge Brammertz, presented to U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon on March 15, establishes that the specific motives for the assassination were strictly political.

The next step should be to establish the special mixed international/Lebanese tribunal envisaged in U.N. Security Council resolution 1664 of March 2006, to prosecute Hariri's murderers and their instigators. All Security Council members approved the draft protocol, detailing the tribunal's authority, after protracted negotiation between Lebanese and U.N. legal experts.

Syria and Hezbollah wish to neuter the tribunal protocol.

Hezbollah sees Saudis mediating in Lebanon crisis

Agence France-Presse - 06 January, 2007
Lebanon’s Shi’ite Hezbollah believes Saudi Arabia could mediate in the country’s political crisis, one of the movement’s former government ministers was quoted as saying yesterday in a media report.

TO VIEW FULL TEXT CLICK HERE