Seducing Syria

The Syrian opposition are upset about the USA's outreach to Syria (Bill Burns the US State Department heavy is visiting Damascus). They are concerned that it means we no longer oppose the Syrian government. But we have bigger fish to fry and that means bringing Syria back into the Western camp at almost any cost because that will weaken Iran. But does weakening Iran reduce the risk of another Mid East war - or increase it?

The Obama administration last week made a major diplomatic opening to Syria. It dispatched Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs William Burns to Damascus for talks, thereby elevating the level of diplomatic contact and further making good on a pledge to engage with countries that George W. Bush s administration shunned.

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Conspiracy Theories

Well this about beats all when it comes to conspiracy theories. What do you think? This was sent over to us by RPS (the Syrian opposition group):

Assad's Intelligence Services Helped Kill al-Mabhouh
"If you question what Assad has given-up in return for US appeasement, then look no further than the killing of al-Mabhouh RPS believes was facilitated by Syrian intelligence in cooperation with the west. Notice the silence of the Iranian regime due to Iranian coordination with Assad knowing that less pressure on Syria will help Assad, clandestinely, further Iranian influence as we have seen in Syrian training on the SA-2 missiles of Hezbollah on Syrian soil and Syrian intransigence on a nuclear program Iran may well be the ultimate beneficiary."

Iran orders changes in Syria?

The rumour is that there's been a major reshufle in Syria's armed forces. The take is that they are getting rid of the pro-Western military and promoting the pro-Iran military. Which shows, I suspect, how little people understand Syria - even the exiled Syrians that have never lived or visited there. Yes, they purge pro-Western people from time to time. They are worried they might be getting subverted for counterinsurgency, either by Dr Rifat or the USA.

Information received by RPS confirms that Iran has, from direct orders of Ayatollah Khameni, influenced the removal of Gen. Ali Mamlook of the State Security Services to be replaced by Gen. Hassan Khalouf. Khalouf has been lobbying with those who have advocated with the policy of peeling away from Iran.

Goodbye Iran - Hello Russia

Have just left Gaza and am in Tel Aviv where the gossip is extraordinary. They say that Syria has evicted Khalid Mishal of Hamas and sent him to Khartoum. I am not sure at this early stage how credible that report means but if so it would mean - in turn - that the USA is now fully engaged in the Israel-Syria talks.

What is certain is that Syria is moving back towards their old friend Moscow. There is not prosepect - from an Israeli perspective - of peace anywhere else but on the Syrin track. So we all take what we can get. For the moment.

Iranian University to Open in Syria

This just came in from Farid who seems to be the guy who sends us more stuff than anyone else on Syria:

Washington DC, July 27, 2007/RPS Staff/ -- During an interview today with Mehar, an Iran daily, Arsalan Baqeri, Deputy Minister of Science, Research and Technology for international affairs, announced the establishment of Iranian Farabi University in Syria.

In the interview Baqeri confirmed that the Iranian Minister of Science, Research and Technology Mohammad Zahedi finalized, during a recent visit to Syria, the establishment of Farabi University, which is an international branch of Tarbiat Modarres University. He also confirmed that Syria and Iran pledged to set up a new 16-member committee to conduct research in biotechnology and laser.

Tarbiat Modares University (TMU) was founded in 1982 as a graduate university specializing in biotechnology. It is the only university in Iran which offers a master program for Medical Biotechnology and only 6-9 students are admitted annually according to their performance in National Graduate Studies Entrance Exam. The university was initially in charge of training (tarbiat) university lecturers (modarres) to eradicate the era of the Shah of Iran. It selected its students after a rigorous "ideological" screening process.

It is expected that about 150 Iranian graduate students will eventually move to Syria to cooperate with Syrian students on biotechnology matters.

Quartet and Iran see different future

Rafi Dajani of ATFP sent this item in which the Washington Post reports on the concurrent meeting that Iran, Syria, Hamas and Hezbollah held to the Quartet meeting in order to strategize over their Mideast policy:

By Robin WrightWashington Post Staff WriterFriday, July 20, 2007; Page A12
Pledging to make headway where others have failed, Tony Blair made his debut as the new Middle East envoy at a meeting in Portugal yesterday with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki Moon and representatives of the European Union and Russia.
"There is no more important issue for peace and security in the world," Blair said at the Lisbon meeting of the Quartet, the group orchestrating Middle East peace efforts. "I'm nothing if not an optimist."

TO VIEW FULL ITEM CLICK HERE

Hamas Conquest of Gaza Disturbs Arab World

Rafi Dajani of ATFP sends this item in whih The New York Times examines how the events in the occupied Palestinian territories are symptomatic of the larger regional dynamics pitting groups aligned with Iran and Syria against Western-backed governments

HAMAS CONQUEST OF GAZA DISTURBS ARAB WORLD WITH ECHOES OF RECENT SPLITS AND ALL By Michael Slackman - New York Times - June 21, 2007

CAIRO, June 20 — The conquest of the Gaza Strip by Hamas has frightened Arab leaders because it was characterized by the same dynamics that have been agitating the region.
Once again, as in Lebanon last summer, the fight pitted a Western-backed government against a newly empowered, radical Islamist group aligned with Syria and Iran. And, once again, the Western-backed group lost and the Iranian-Syrian group won.
The outcome demonstrated the rising threat to the status quo in places like Cairo; Amman, Jordan; and Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, posed by political Islam. And it gave Iran yet another foothold on Arab borders.

TO VIEW FULL ARTICLE CLICK HERE

Rice breaks the ice with Syria, but not Iran

· Iraq conference backdrop for high level discussion
· US praises Damascus's counter-insurgency effort

Ian Black in Sharm el-Sheikh
Friday May 4, 2007
The Guardian

Efforts to stabilise Iraq by involving its neighbours in talks brought Condoleezza Rice together with Syria's foreign minister yesterday for an ice-breaking meeting but talks with her Iranian opposite number, Manouchehr Mottaki, failed to happen.

The US secretary of state's session with Walid Moualem on the margins of an international conference on Iraq followed rare praise from the US military that Syria was doing more to seal its border with Iraq to foreign fighters joining the Sunni insurgency.

The high-profile diplomatic encounter in the Egyptian resort of Sharm el-Sheikh was the first of its kind since Syria, Iran's only Arab ally, was accused of being behind the murder of the former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri in February 2005. It denies the charge and is resisting calls for a UN tribunal to investigate the killing.

TO READ FULL STORY CLICK HERE

Farid Ghadry, from the Syrian opposition, has sent us the following opinion piece on the Rice meeting, posted on the Reform Party of Syria website.

A Safe Iraq is the Purpose
Farid Ghadry, RPS,Washington DC
May 4, 2007
With Iraq becoming the center of gravity of US foreign policy in the Middle East, the Syrian opposition is witnessing some disturbing events taking place that look like a reversal of the past policy by the US in its approach to dealing with the Assad regime. But a closer look may reveal a different perspective...

After the meeting yesterday, the White House spokesman Tony Snow downplayed its importance when he said: "Any conversations would not be bilateral discussions. They would not be formal negotiations." He added: "The one and only topic, again, in Sharm el- Sheikh is to say: 'It is time now to step forward and support the government of Iraq. ' That is the strong message that is being sent." It is obvious from the narrow goal that precipitated this meeting to take place that Iraq and only Iraq was the central issue...

TO READ OPINION PIECE IN FULL CLICK HERE

Lack of a Clear Policy

Isolate Syria and engage Iran or vice-versa? The Bush government can't make up its mind. Certainly their disaray is handing the Democrats a foreign policy gift. Farid from the US favored Syrian opposition sent the following item which shows where he's coming from. Meanwhile Israel has a golden opportunity to go for a Syrian peace but does the Prime Minister have the courage to take the risky leap into the abys? I doubt it. Olmert's main concern is survival.

Farid writes: No policy towards Syria created a vacuum that the Democrats in Congress have taken advantage of by demonstrating a capacity not to be fence-sitters.

The blame falls squarely on a timid US-Syria policy that in the beginning made sense as the US was plowing its way in Iraq. But soon thereafter, the US learned that the Syrian porous borders were used, in conjunction with the support of the Syrian Assad regime, to wreak havoc in Iraq with the aim of destabilizing a country on the verge of a historic transformation. Yet, the US did nothing more than isolate Syria in the hope it can change its behavior. Three years later and over three thousands US deaths in Iraq, the US still has no policy on Syria, which created the opportunity for the Democrats to craft one.

The US policy towards Iran suffers from the same malaise and that is why the Democrats, once again, announced a willingness to sit with Ahmadinajead of Iran.

Engage Syria; Isolate Iran

Sent to the NCF by Terry Newman

The West wants to isolate Iran, weaken Hamas and Hizbullah. Syria wants to be brought in from international isolation. The time is right for Western engagement with Syria. Assad’s cards are the strongest they have been since his ascent to power. He maintains close contacts with Iran, Hamas, and Hizbullah - and is often the glue between Iran and the latter. As Western pressure on Iran increases, Assad knows his strategic value to the West increases. But this is a fragile position...

To see the full article please click on the title