Israel's View

Graph of the Month: n terms of Israel’s interests, is it better that Assad’s regime falls and the rebels seize power or that his regime survives and defeats the rebels? (Percentage of the Jewish public):

Israel accusations against Syria

Some say that Israel is looking for an excuse to stir up trouble with Syria. The Israelis now claim that satellite images showing a Syrian nuclear facility have been released by the Institute for Science and International Security, a US based research institute. They say that the Syrian nuclear facility is thought to be related to the Dair Alzour uranium conversion site destroyed by Israel in a 2007 strike. On Wednesday, Washington's Institute for Science and International Security reported that recent satellite images showed one of the sites to be a "small uranium conversion facility," adding that the site was "functionally related" to the reactor Israel reportedly destroyed in 2007.

Syrian peace?

Walid Muallam has just been in London. His visit coincided with the U.S bombing of the Syrian border village. Whilst talking to the press on that issue he did say that the ball was in the Isaeli court when it came to the Golan Heights problem. Apparently Syria is ready to go ahead tomorrow if negotiations are on the basis of hte '67 borders. Of course Israel has problems of its own getting its act together and heaven knows how Tzipi Livni's bid for power will pan out in the long run. Perhaps Olmert will stay on as caretaker Israeli premier till January and find the courage to do something on the Syrian track in the interim.

Syrian officer involved in Hariri death killed

Israel seems to be trying to distance itself from the Damascus car bombing. Following the oblique accusation in the recent Reform Party of Syria circulated article - the RPS are now circulating this item which links the whole thing to the Hariri death. A bit far fetched perhaps. Their original police implied that Israel did it to get at Syria's nuclear team. They can't have it both ways. What next? They could coved r all their bases and say the Russians did it.

A Syrian intelligence officer who was involved in the assassination of former Lebanese premier Rafik Hariri in February 2005 was killed in the car bomb attack in Syria on September 27, Syrian opposition representative Sheikh Abdullah Hamidi told Israel Radio on Sunday.

Israel tacitly blamed for Syrian bomb

Here's a strange thing indeed. The Syrian opposition group, RPS, is suggesting rather obliquely that the Israelis were responsible for the terrible terrorist car bomb in Syria. And their source? The Debka file, an extremist Israel based site rumored to be well connected at the Pentagon. So - obliquely - an Israel group seems to be implying that Israel did this terrible thing just to assassinate someone connected with an alleged nuclear program. Weird indeed! If not borderline obscene. And untrue we trust. Extract from the Debka item below - click for the link:

Our military sources describe rising tension between Syria and Israel in the wake of the car bomb explosion Saturday, Sept. 27, which killed 17 people and injured 14 outside a Syrian security installation at Sidi Kadad on the highway to Damascus airport. The victims were not officially identified. Various Arab sources report that one was a Syrian brigadier who was not named. After the attack, DEBKAfile’s sources raised the possibility that it might have targeted people involved in Iranian/Syrian nuclear activity.

Goodbye Iran - Hello Russia

Have just left Gaza and am in Tel Aviv where the gossip is extraordinary. They say that Syria has evicted Khalid Mishal of Hamas and sent him to Khartoum. I am not sure at this early stage how credible that report means but if so it would mean - in turn - that the USA is now fully engaged in the Israel-Syria talks.

What is certain is that Syria is moving back towards their old friend Moscow. There is not prosepect - from an Israeli perspective - of peace anywhere else but on the Syrin track. So we all take what we can get. For the moment.

Better news on Peace

Again from Jerusalem. Wise council from those in the know here seems to be that all is not lost on the Syria track after all. Bashar Al-Assad has himself acknowledged that what we have so far is talks about talks. And our earlier dire predictions that a Mofaz premiership would destroy the Syrian track may be groundless. His people are saying that he can be pragmatic - even on this. And after all - it may be Leevni in any case.

Syria Peace talks

A note from Jerusalem. The word here is that Israel's Peace with Syria lobby is very concerned about the prospect of Olmert's coming resignation. Olmert has handled the proximity talks with Syria personally - by which we mean through his own office. If Tzipi Leevni wins out in the coming Khadima elections there is a chance the talks will still proceed. If it is Mofaz the talks will be destroyed. Olmert could force things forward before he leaves office. There is already a draft memorandum of understanding on the table which he personally leaked to Maariv newspaper. But leaking it is one thing - announcing it and progressing matters is another and Olmert seems to lack the courage to go for the big gamble.

Could peace break out between Israel and Syria

Well it seems there are still a few people around that think peace is possible - though we get increasingly doubtful here at NCF. Thank God for the optimists. Here is something forwarded to us by ATFP:

By Janine Zacharia Bloomberg News, International Herald Tribune
Published: July 29, 2008

WASHINGTON: Israel and Syria have suddenly found fresh reasons to try to make peace after eight years of stalemate. President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, concerned about the survival of his regime, wants to reap the political and economic benefits of ending his nation's isolation from the West.
Prime Minister Ehud Olmert of Israel, mindful of his own precarious political future, seeks to wrest Syria out of Iran's orbit and stop it from funneling weapons to the Lebanese group Hezbollah, which used them against Israel in the 2006 war.

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GCC chief slams Olmert's remarks

Are the Israelis playing games rather than pursuing peace? Some would reckon so, including the GCC boss it would seem:

Secretary General of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Abdul-Rahman Al-Attiyah slammed Monday the recent remarks by Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert as "unhelpful" for the Middle East peace conference, due in the United States in November.Olmert said the US-proposed conference would lead to declaration of stances rather than a declaration of agreement.

TO VIEW FULL TEXT CLICK HERE

Working Group on the Middle East Peace Process: Statement on Middle East meeting

David Pelham of the ICG in Jerusalem sent us this worthy document. The Syrian dimension of the document shows a certain lack of comprehension of the nature of the issue - Syria cannot enter first track discussions that don't address the return of the Golan in some shape or form - and the document is a little unimaginative on issues like that of the status of Jerusalem. But it is useful none the less. Click below for the full text:

Working Group on the Middle East Peace Process: Statement on Middle East meeting

More speculation

Justin writes re the post below:

Good summary Mehreen, thanks for this. Some more speculation on the Syria incident that's worth a look on Daniel Levy's blog:

TO VIEW DANNY'S BLOG CLICK HERE

Note from NCF - the whisper is that Danny is about to join Blair's Jerusalem team. He's a nice guy. Awsomely clever. A little bit proud sometimes though, which can be offputting. - wm

Making the Conference Work

How can we have a peace process without Syria? Impossible now. Rafi Dajani of ATFP sends this item in which the Israel Policy Forum urges that proper preparation take place before the Mideast Fall conference, most notably a prior agreement on a statement of principles and the attendance of key Arab states:

MAKING THE CONFERENCE WORK By Jonathan Wisbey The Israel Policy Forum September 5, 2007
More than a month after it was initially announced, the US-sponsored peace conference tentatively scheduled to take place this November—and the ambiguity surrounding nearly every aspect of it—is still a topic of heated debate.

First proposed in mid-July, the conference is the keystone of a Bush administration initiative designed to take advantage of the situation created in the Palestinian Authority by the Fatah-Hamas unity government’s violent dissolution. The United States hopes that the conference will provide Israel with an opportunity to reach some form of agreement with Abbas’ moderate Palestinian leadership and reverse the political gains made by Hamas in 2007.

TO VIEW FULL ITEM CLICK HERE

Syria, Israel and the forgotten Street

Rafi Dajani of ATFP sends this item: In Asharq Alawsat (pan-Arab) former editor-in-chief Abdul Rahman Al-Rashed urges Israel and the U.S. to test Syrian intentions by resuming negotiations from where they last left off between Israel and Syria

SYRIA, ISRAEL AND THE FORGOTTEN PEACE Editorial : Asharq Alawsat (Pan-Arab) June 12, 2007

I do not know if Ehud Olmert, given his weak state, can be the Israeli leader capable of initiating peace talks with Syria. But what is for certain is that the time has come to give it a try. Syria is up to its ears in very grave regional problems while Israel today, from a security standpoint, is weaker than ever before. Since the assassination of former Israeli Prime Minster Yitzhak Rabin, observers concerned with the matter realize that peace between Tel Aviv and Damascus is more likely and easier to achieve, despite the repeated failures since Madrid in 91, followed by the negotiations in 1993, and finally the Maryland negotiations. But since the Geneva meeting between the late President Hafez al Assad and former American President Bill Clinton in 2000, everyone sensed that Syria was ready [for peace] but that Israel was reluctant. There were no further negotiations since the death of President Assad; however talks in the past had led to crucial understandings that could enable a peaceful future if indeed both sides were sincere.

TO VIEW FULL ARTICLE CLICK HERE

PM mulls, via 3rd party, resuming Syria talks

Interesting times. Of course there is no mystery as to what Syria offers Israel. It is a complete peace. Jackie Hugi sent us this article:

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is exploring, via a third party, the possibility of resuming peace talks with Syria. A government source said there was no direct contact between Israeli and Syrian officials, "but a very serious assessment is underway." What is being assessed is what Israel would get in return for pulling out of the Golan Heights, the nature of future bilateral relations and whether Syria would consider cutting its ties with Iran, Hezbollah and Palestinian terror organizations, Israel's main enemies in the region.

TO READ FULL ARTICLE CLICK HERE

Back to the Syrian Track

Award winning Israeli Journalist Jackie Hugi sent this through. It is by a colleague and is an important overview of a changing situation:

Ma’ariv (p. 2) by Ben Caspit -- Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has completed his “feasibility study” on the possibility of holding negotiations between Israel and Syria, and he is now leaning toward going for the Syrian track and to begin preparations to this end. Olmert is considering including this in a reserved Israeli affirmative reply to the Saudi peace initiative. In the meantime, he is waiting for the results of the Labor Party primary, in the hope of Ehud Barak winning, who is meant to become the prime minister’s strategic partner in this step.
Sources close to Olmert say that in the last few days the prime minister “ripened” and became convinced that negotiations with the Syrians and a possible peace agreement between the two countries would substantively change the strategic situation in the region and help isolate Iran and solve the Hizbullah problem, mainly in light of the collapse of Abu Mazen’s Fatah and the fact that there is no chance of a peace process with the Palestinians in the near future.
Recently a number of foreign emissaries visited Damascus with questions from Olmert. Based on their information, the prime minister made an in-depth discrete examination of the issue. At the same time, Israel appealed to the US through various channels, and the Americans were persuaded that negotiations between Israel and Syria also conforms to their interests in the region.
Moreover: The voices in the security establishment calling to open a diplomatic track on the northern front are constantly increasing. All the security ranks, except for the Mossad director, now enthusiastically support this: the chief of staff, his deputy, the director of IDF Intelligence, the chairman of the National Security Council, the Political-Security Staff in the Defense Ministry, along with the staff ranks. Military sources say that continuing the current policy will, almost certainly, lead to some sort of deterioration in the situation on the northern front, which could turn into a war within a very short time.
There has also been a change in the position of Mossad Director Meir Dagan, which is described by informed sources as “strategic.” Dagan still believes that Syria has no intention of abandoning the axis of evil, of cooling its relations with Iran, of cutting off its ties to Hizbullah or of expelling the terror organizations from its soil. Nonetheless, in a written document that Dagan sent recently to a secret forum, a dramatic change was noted in his position relating to the Arab world: until now Dagan contended that the axis of moderate Arab countries was opposed to negotiations between Israel and Syria and that these countries, headed by Saudi Arabia, would view this as “sticking a knife in their back” by Israel. Dagan, who is responsible for the ties to these countries and specializes in what goes on there, now states that the moderate Arab countries have been persuaded of the necessity of negotiations between Israel and Syria, and view such negotiations as an important way of undermining the terror axis and stopping the approaching Shiite-Islamic revolution. Israel, in this assessment, earns the blessings of the moderate Arab states—Saudi Arabia, the Persian Gulf states, Jordan and others—for a possible diplomatic step with Syria.

Israeli Eyes Turn to Damascus

The Peace with Syria demonstration on the Golan was organised last week by NCF members. Pressure is building on the government of Israel. The following article from the New York Times is good for background:

The question, of course, is whether Mr. Assad actually wants to make peace with Israel in return for the Golan Heights, or simply wants to start a “peace process” that would bring him in from the cold. One top aide said last week that Mr. Olmert, though weak politically, was not going to play the easy political card and get involved in an unserious negotiation with Damascus that could easily fail and end in war, not peace.

Mr. Assad has changed since Israel’s war with Hezbollah, the official said. “He thinks he won, and his self-confidence now is unbelievable.” Mr. Assad has said he’s ready for peace, but if peace fails, he’s ready for war.

TO VIEW FULL ITEM CLICK HERE

Eli Cohen gone forever?

The NCF has had a number of approaches to retrieve the bones of the one time Israeli spy, Eli Cohen - including from Eli's elderly widow. All a lost cause if this article is to be believed - but I am not so sure this is credible. Of course you may be wondering why a lot of old bones matter at all - but then, if you ask yourself that question, you're not Israeli

TO VIEW FULL ARTICLE CLICK HERE

Israel does not want Peace?

Gideon Levi, one of our International Media Council award winning journalists, wrote this gloomy assesment - which was sent to us by the Palestinian Ambassador in Washington, Afif Safieh:

The moment of truth has arrived, and it has to be said: Israel does not want peace. The arsenal of excuses has run out, and the chorus of Israeli rejection already rings hollow. Until recently, it was still possible to accept the Israeli refrain that "there is no partner" for peace and that "the time isn't right" to deal with our enemies. Today, the new reality before our eyes leaves no room for doubt and the tired refrain that "Israel supports peace" has been left shattered.

TO VIEW FULL ARTICLE CLICK HERE

Top US Democrat Visits Syria

Pelosi's Misguided Middle East Visit

by Dr. Marcy Newman, Electronic Lebanon, 5 April 2007

This week U.S. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi concluded her visit to the Middle East in Damascus, Syria, to which President George W. Bush's response was that her visit "sends mixed messages." While Pelosi's delegation to the region should be met with applause for refusing to participate in isolating Syria, her visit to Lebanon, Palestine, and Syria should be met with a great deal of caution.

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