Bashar on the Back Foot

President Bashar Al-Assad yesterday used weighty rhetoric to deter further support for the rebel forces, claiming that if they were to take power, it would "lead to a state of instability for years and maybe decades to come." Assad may be right to point out the dangers of a quickly and completely destabilised Syria. The rebel forces are disparate and some factions contain elements of extremism, including the Al-Nusra Front. Israel is already worried by incursions into the Golan Heights by rebel forces. There is also a great deal of concern amongst foreign leaders as to the whereabouts of chemical weapons within Syrian borders and the fact that they may fall into terrorist hands with a change of power. A concern not lightened by the Syrian authorities, as yesterday they refused entry to a UN group charged with inspecting the use of chemical weapons.

The rhetoric used by Assad suggests a worried leader on the back foot, adamant that he still lives in Damascus despite recent rebel advances on the city and having lost swathes of the country in the North and East. He condemns Western powers and claims that "the Turkish government is knee-deep in Syrian blood." Yet he fails to acknowledge the government forces part in the huge toll the war has taken on Syria. According to UN figures, the death toll is above 70,000. Here at the Next Century Foundation we continue to record a high death toll (last month the total was 5,399). More than a million refugees have left the country and, according to the Syrian Red Crescent, more than four million have been displaced internally.

It is clear that the sooner the conflict can be brought to a close, the better. The rebels are unlikely to be appeased by anything other than the removal of Assad from power, especially since the resignation of the moderate Moaz Al-Khatib from the opposition leadership. However, there is an element of truth in Assad's assertion. The shift of power must be handled carefully, as a rapid overthrow may lead to wider destabilisation in the region.

Syria media deny Assad dissident pledge to US lawmaker

Farid sends this sad little piece:

Washington DC - January 2, 2008/AFP/ -- Syrian official media poured scorn late on Tuesday on comments by a visiting US Congressman that he had secured an undertaking from President Bashar al-Assad to free seven jailed dissidents.
Syria "denies the statement by House of Representatives member Patrick Kennedy that he raised the issue of certain detainees during his meetings with Syrian officials," the state SANA news agency cited an "official source" as saying.
"Syria refuses categorically to discuss its internal affairs with any foreign official. All that a foreign official can do is to be briefed about the situation in Syria in general and to listen to answers.
"No one has the right to interfere in Syria's internal affairs," the official source said.

Preserve Lebanon’s democracy and independence

Farid of the US based Syria Reform Party sends this item. Personally I should think there would be a lot of Lebanese who'd like to see Syria back in control and an end to Western meddling - but am I wrong?

Washington DC, July 18, 2007/William Harris - Now Lebanon/ -- In the contemporary world it is fashionable to represent conflicts as involving various shades of gray among contending parties, with clear moral choices being problematic. In the current Lebanese crisis, however, the choice is clear – it is between day and night, between light and darkness.

Above all, Lebanon’s future depends upon the survival and consolidation of its recently renewed democracy and independence. This requires agreement among political leaders on a new president committed to democracy and independence, implementation of the Lebanese state’s rightful monopoly of force on all its territory, and total cooperation with the international community in the proceedings of the coming UN murder tribunal. The Syrian/Lebanese security apparatus that commanded Lebanon until 2005, an apparatus still headed by Presidents Bashar al-Assad and Emile Lahoud, remains the prime suspect in the February 2005 assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. Until the culprits for this crime and a succession of plainly associated murders and attempted murders of Lebanese critics of the Syrian regime are apprehended, political murder will rule supreme and Lebanese democracy cannot be secured.

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PM mulls, via 3rd party, resuming Syria talks

Interesting times. Of course there is no mystery as to what Syria offers Israel. It is a complete peace. Jackie Hugi sent us this article:

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is exploring, via a third party, the possibility of resuming peace talks with Syria. A government source said there was no direct contact between Israeli and Syrian officials, "but a very serious assessment is underway." What is being assessed is what Israel would get in return for pulling out of the Golan Heights, the nature of future bilateral relations and whether Syria would consider cutting its ties with Iran, Hezbollah and Palestinian terror organizations, Israel's main enemies in the region.

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Syria's Assad wins second term

Shaul sent this with the comment, "He is more popular even than his father..."

Syrian President Bashar Assad won a referendum on extending his presidency for second term, garnering 97.62 percent of votes.
At a press conference, Interior Minister Bassam Abdel-Majid said 95.86 percent of eligible voters – 11.19 million – took part in the vote. Only 1.71 percent voted against renewing Assad's presidency for another term.

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Palace Feud

This item comes in from Farid - who of course has his own agenda - but it ehoes gossip currently doing the rounds. Assef Shawkat is already treading very thin ice because of his relationship with the Iranians. Current gossip is that his days are numbered:

Washington DC, April 28, 2007/RPS News/ -- Sources in Lebanon have confirmed to RPS that a palace feud in Damascus between Bouchra al-Assad, sister to Baschar and wife to head of the feared Military Intelligence Assef Shawkat, and Asma al-Assad, wife to Baschar, is boiling over. This time, the center of the dispute is the backing Asma al-Assad is providing to some Syrian NGO's started by her in support of Women's rights in Syria. Asma's NGO's steer away from political matters completely.
It seems that Bouchra al-Assad asked her husband Assef Shawkat to harass the heads of Asma's NGO's by detaining and questioning them for long periods of time. Noura al-Shak, who heads a coordination office between the NGO's and the EU, was detained recently for several hours, which resulted in her tendering her resignation soon thereafter. Our sources confirm that Bouchra and Anissa Makhlouf, her mother and wife to the late Hafez al-Assad, are concerned that the NGO's will help Asma build a powerbase.

The Political Economy of Syria

This item came in from Felix who comments that it is "Quite a good analysis":

Syria's economy, which is predominantly state-controlled, was characterizedin a recent report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as "stable butstagnant economy"(1) because of the failure of the narrowly confinedpolitical establishment to implement extensive economic reforms. Anold-fashioned inefficient and heavily regulated socialist command conomy, restricted political freedoms under a totalitarian system of government, andwide-scale corruption at the highest levels of government have impeded theemergence of a viable market economy. The three revenue sectors that Syriarelies on annually are oil production; taxes from government services; andthe government-owned industrial companies, which are widely politicized,greatly inefficient, and bleeding red ink. Only three segments of theeconomy are somewhat profitable and, not surprisingly, the three aremonopolies: tobacco, telecommunications, and banking, although the latter isbeing opened slowly to private banking. The tobacco monopoly is run by amember of the Assad family which has a complete ownership of the businessand is not subject to pricing control.

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Top US Democrat Visits Syria

Pelosi's Misguided Middle East Visit

by Dr. Marcy Newman, Electronic Lebanon, 5 April 2007

This week U.S. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi concluded her visit to the Middle East in Damascus, Syria, to which President George W. Bush's response was that her visit "sends mixed messages." While Pelosi's delegation to the region should be met with applause for refusing to participate in isolating Syria, her visit to Lebanon, Palestine, and Syria should be met with a great deal of caution.

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