Syria rebels move HQ from Egypt to Turkey

Hmmm. Interesting. So the new Egyptian government dissaproves of the Arab Spring. Which is predictable of course. Interesting though:

SEE THIS LINK

The headquarters of the Syrian National Coalition (SNC) is being transferred from Egypt to Turkey, as the new administration that toppled President Mohamed Morsi has limited the movements of the Syrian opposition, according to the coalition’s Turkey representative. 

Siwar Al-Assad Conference talks about the Syrian Conflict at ILERI

Take a look at this link:

The new diaspora

Lise Douchette was interviewing the US Ambassador to Syria Giles Ford on the world service last night Sept 4th. She said that the diaspora seemed to be marked out even in this country. The secret police were even aware of the meetings we had had. Their families were visited by the police in Damascus. Last weekend someone was very concerned that even meeting in this house, his family got the knock on the door in Syria.

Syrian National Council unveiled in Turkey

Members of Syrian opposition groups have announced at a meeting in Turkey that they have selected 140 people to form a “national council” to give a public face to the protests against President Assad. Furthermore the council will attempt to co-ordinate the factionalised opposition in order to intensify the pressure on the government. Only 70 names out of the list of 140 were announced publically at the meeting, possibly because the unnamed individuals currently reside in Syria and therefore the publicity could be a threat to their security. The list is composed of revolutionary youths, political activists and technocrats, whilst ethnic and religious minorities have reportedly also been represented. Yaser Tabbara, a Syrian-American attorney and a member of the council, has noted that “the council will be seeking to fill the vacuum identified by the international community, as an alternative to Assad's regime and represent the position of the Syrian revolution in an efficient and credible way.” The opposition has had unofficial contact with foreign governments, and one of the aims of the formation of the council is that meetings with Arab and Western governments will follow, as well as consultations with the UN and the Arab League.

The Syrian opposition has clearly attempted to mimic the activities of the Libyan opposition, who declared the formation of the National Transitional Council in the eastern Libyan city of Al Bayda in late February. The question is how far does the Syrian National Council wish to follow in the footsteps of the Libyan rebels: will they engage in an armed rebellion, backed by Western military support? That possibility may exist, but it is still much too early to tell.

Syrian National Dialogue Conference

President Al-Assad of Syria has recently allowed meetings with opposition members, aimed at creating a ‘national dialogue’.

Nearly 200 dissident opposition members have held their own meetings in Damascus, calling for a peaceful transition to democracy and an end to the rule of Al-Assad and have now been invited to enter discussions with the government; many view this as a great step forward.

The Guardian however, has been critical, suggesting that this may be nothing more than a ‘PR exercise’. The meetings have not included any of Syria’s major opposition parties or those affiliated with them and this casts doubt on whether or not meaningful reform can emerge out of this.

With protests occurring daily, not only in Damascus but throughout Syria, Ammar Abdulhamid, an exiled dissident, suggests that there is still a strong possibility of revolution.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, many opposition parties have declared themselves opposed to the talks; including the main opposition party in Syria, the Damascus Declaration coalition.

The White House has called the talks worthwhile but says it will continue to put pressure on the Syrian government to end the violence towards civilians, which likewise has been condemned by the European Union.

July 10^th has now been set as the date on which Mr Al-Assad and his government will hold their ‘National Dialogue Conference’; a consultative meeting of approximately 100, again unaffiliated, intellectual and political figures, who will discuss various constitutional amendments.

It is the government’s hope that these meetings will stave off revolution and secure the Ba'ath regime. Whether or not these meetings will placate the Syrian protestors, or whether this is simply too little too late, remains to be seen.

What is clear is that this is not a true ‘opposition meeting’, but merely meetings with groups of citizens that include a few opposition members.

What went wrong?

The Syrian Reform Group based in America and led by Faride Ghadry called for demonstrations in Syria last Saturday 5th February. They were jumping on the Egypt bandwagon. Not to be outdone the Muslim Brotherhood jumped on Faride Ghadry's bandwagon and called for demonstrations a day earlier on Friday 4th February.

And what happened? There were no demonstrations of any significance. The Muslim Brotherhood were utterly humiliated. Truth is they are very weak in Syria just as they are in Egypt (contrary to Western perceptions). Indeed they were humiliated in Egypt under similar circumstances ("The 6th April Movement" in Egypt successfully called a general strike on 6th April 2010 demanding the removal of President Mubarak but a repeat demonstration called for 6 May 2010 was cancelled by them because they perceived the Muslim Brotherhood as jumping on the bandwagon - this lead to the political humiliation of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt at the time).

That is not to say that they would not garner support in a genuine election in either country, perhaps even mustering 20% of the votes. But they can never be the key political force in Syria.

Is that the point? Perhaps not. It was the street, not the Muslim Brotherhood, that led the Egyptian Revolution.

So why then no street protests in Syria? Well one reason is the Syrians were not inclined to join a protest called in the name of the Muslim Brotherhood of course (the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood is already much discredited because of its close association with Khaddam, the much hated former Vice President of Syria). Another was that it takes more courage to demonstrate in Syria given the stronghold the government exercises. And a third is economic.

Economic you ask? Well yes, economic. To quote the Middle East Association this week, "Syria boasts one of the region’s most diversified economies. With ever increasing competition, the private sector is experiencing growth and a rise in foreign investment. GDP growth is 4.5%, and future growth is expected as Syria’s international standing develops. A substantial increase in bilateral trade is anticipated in 2011-12 as the country becomes more integrated into the global economy. There are promising opportunities in construction, tourism, healthcare, infrastructure, and the energy sector."

Yes but, you say, Egypt has 4-5% growth and look what happened there. Well sure but in Egypt they've had World Bank driven reforms which mean that they no longer run a centralised economy with cheap food prices. Furthermore, in Egypt the rich have displayed their wealth in lavish fashion, living in elite walled ghettos, a world apart from the people. In Syria there is still staggering poverty but none the less the wealth has spread a little further into the middle income groups than in Egypt. Furthermore Syria is a smaller country. Egypt is hugely overpopulated with 80 million people crammed into quite a modest swathe of habitable land.

And finally I guess, Syria is just better run. Less chaos. Which is why Syria gets no revolution. Syria may be vulnerable to a military coup (and that's pretty questionable) but certainly not to a street led revolution. Not anytime soon anyway. Simple eh?

Ghadry Goes

Farid Ghadry is resigning as President of the US approved Syrian opposition group, The Reform Party of Syria (RPS). The RPS is one of two key external opposition groups, the other (and larger) being Rifat al Assad's "United Nationals' Alliance". There is also a small opposition group under the wing of former deputy premier Ghadam in alliance with elements of the Moslem Brotherhood - but this has been discredited

Syrian Dissident Killed?

One of the Syrian opposition figures has dissapeared, missing presumed dead, in Tripoli in Northern Lebanon. Human Rights Watch have taken up his cause but he was almost certainly murdered. Still there is always a chance he is still alive. Let's hope. He leaves a pregnant wife and young son whose lives have been threatened as well. Sad world wouldn't you say?

Human Rights Watch says that Nawar Abboud, who worked as an accountant for a Syrian opposition group, was detained in the northern city of Tripoli three months ago and hasn't been heard of since.

More trouble in Damascus

Seems there is more and more trouble brewing in Damascus. To start with the Syrian opposition was blaming the Israelis - which was wierd (see previous posts). Now they are blaming the Syrian government - which is weirder still.

October 9, 2008 //RPS News// – The Al-Arabiya web site reported this morning that a fight erupted in Damascus around noon time today between the Syrian Security Forces and unknown combatants. Al-Arabiya reporter asserted that the engagement happened next to the al-Wasseem Mosque on Al-Yaroom Street.

Where is Shawkat?

Interesting gossip going around. They say Assef Shawkat, head of the Syrian Military Intelligence is under house arrest for his participation in killing Mughnieyh and that his fate will mirror that of Ghazi Kanaan, another high Syrian official, who committed suicide in October of 2005.
According to US sponsored Syrian opposition leader Farid Ghadry: The rumors of Shawkat's demise or house arrest were circulated fast on the Internet. There are other rumours that his wife Bushra is seeking political asylum in Dubai after being refused political asylum in France. The Iranians are betting that if Shawkat is incapacitated, Iran can fill the void thus control its influence in and of Damascus and the Saudis are betting that with Shawkat out of the way, they can force Assad to maneuver his ship closer to the Arab shore long abandoned by him.

Break up “Damascus Declaration” Meeting

This story came in from Farid:

Damascus - December 14, 2007/Aafaq/ -- Wednesday evening Syrian security forces raided the home of Riad Seif and broke up a meeting of the Secretariat of the “Damascus Declaration for National Democratic Change in Syria.” Those who were present at the time of the raid were threatened with arrest if they did not leave the house immediately. [Full Story in Arabic]
This was just two days after the government launched a campaign of arrests across Syria sweeping up leading members of the political opposition.

Shooting Yourself in the Foot

This is interesting from Farid. I kind of think the same for once. How the Moslem Brotherhood have disadvantaged themselves by forming an alliance with the Syrian traitor, Khaddam. They call it the National Salvation Front and it has won the Moslem Brotherhood friends in Washington. But at what cost back home? Farid writes in his travelogue:

The meetings with the other Syrian dissidents in Jordan were extensive and the results were very satisfactory. When in Amman, I like to eat at a very popular and common (Shaabi) restaurant called Abou Hashem, which was frequented often by the late King Hussein. One would suspect that fear would grip Syrians traveling into Jordan, but in reality they come armed with courage and determination. I got to meet new faces, some from the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood who came from Hama. They were not too happy with the direction their leadership in London took by uniting with the ex-vice president of Syria. The stories I heard from them about Khaddam's actions while he was in power in Syria explain very well the reasons behind his unpopularity. More often, I try to steer Syrians away from expressing hate and direct them to put their trust in the rule of law in the new Syria.

TO VIEW FARID'S FULL ITEM CLICK HERE

Syrian Oppression

This item sent by Felix is a reminder of the oppression wrought by the Syrian regime against dissent.

Syrian opposition activists have recently been criticizing the oppression of young people - especially students - in Syria, following the imprisonment of seven activists aged 22-32 who were involved in establishing an online youth discussion group and who posted pro-democracy articles online.

The seven, most of them students, were convicted by the Supreme State Security Court, on June 17, 2007, of "taking action or making a written statement or speech which could endanger the State or harm its relationship with a foreign country, or expose [the State] to the risk of hostile action against the State or its property," under Article 278 of the Syrian Penal Code.

After over a year in detention without trial - a procedure permitted under Syrian emergency law - five of the activists received five-year prison sentences, while the other two, who were also convicted of "broadcasting false news or reports that could harm the prestige of the State or its financial status," were sentenced to seven years

Full Article

Explosion in Syria Kills 15 Soldiers

This came in from Farid:

Washington DC, July 26, 2007/RPS Staff/ -- An explosion at an ordnance depot in northern Syria killed at least 15 soldiers Thursday and wounded 50 others.
The depot belonged to a Syrian military unit in Musalmiya located about 7 miles from Aleppo and 200 miles from Damascus.
It is yet unknown what caused the blast. The SANA new agency claimed that high temperatures that reached as high as 113 Fahrenheit were the culprit.

Scare Mongering?

This item comes in from Farid. Is he scare mongering?

Washington DC, June 24, 2007/RPS News/ -- RPS is issuing a travel alert to anyone contemplating a trip to Syria in the near future due to the sudden disappearance of Arabs and foreigners alike.
On March 31st of this year, Canadian tourist Nicole Vienneau disappeared while in Syria. She was last seen leaving the Cairo Hotel in Hama to visit the Qasr Ibn Wardan (a nearby castle). A 1 million Syrian pound (over $20,000) has been earmarked as reward money for anyone who can point to her whereabouts. As of this writing, there is no trace of Nicole.
An Egyptian medical doctor named Amro Ahmad Youssef has also disappeared about a month ago when he traveled to Syria to visit with Syrian friends he attended medical school with in Moscow. Dr. Youssef whereabouts are still unknown and it is believed he may have come face-to-face with a new phenomenon in Syria: Economically deprived killers looking for easy prey and quick cash.

Opposition statement

Farid sends us this item from Washington:

Washington DC, May 1, 2007/AFP/ -- BEIRUT - Six leading opposition figures jailed in Syria warned on Tuesday that the “repressive climate” in their country was worsening and called for the release of all political prisoners.
“Our situation as prisoners of conscience is part ... of the crisis of public freedoms and human rights in Syria, which started with the state of emergency imposed 44 years ago,” they said in a joint letter from Adra prison near Damascus.
“The crisis has reached its climax today, with increased repression and suppression of freedoms,” they wrote in the letter published in Lebanon’s leading An-Nahar newspaper.
The signatories are Anwar Bunni, Michel Kilo, Kamal Labwani, Mahmud Issa, Faeq al-Mir and Aref Dalila. The newspaper did not disclose how the letter was smuggled out of the Syrian prison.

Window Voting in Syria

Well the Syrian elections are done - and perhaps they've been a tad more honest than in previous years. An improvement maybe but still a long way to go. But there's no pleasing Farid who writes:

"The Syrian regime did not disappoint all those who boycotted the elections in the last few days and, as expected, the Syrian Interior Minister appeared publicly today just before noon in Damascus to announce the results. But unlike the 99.99% of the people voting that most of the previous eight parliamentary Syrian elections claimed, this time around the Ministry of Interior showed a hint of Tocquvellian minimalism when it alleged a 56.12% turnout of the 12 million eligible voters."

Elections in Syria

Farid reminds us that today, some Syrians will cast their votes in parliamentary elections held across Syria to elect 250 members of parliament.

The Syrian opposition has boycotted the elections.

Syrian Elections

Farid sends a note of concern regarding forthcoming Syrian elections. He points out that in his view:

On April 22, Syrians will choose a new Syrian Parliament represented by 250 members . . .
Of the 250 seats in the parliament, 167 have been pre-designated for the National Progressive Front of which the Ba'ath Party holds the majority number of seats at 135. The remainder 83 seats in the new parliament are assigned to Independents, some of whom entering the race are either too close to the regime or whose hands have been tied by new election laws that limit their spending. Effectively, there is no opposition in the Parliament that can challenge the Assad regime. If it does rise, as in the case of Riad Seif and Mamoun al-Homsi, both ex-members of parliament, they are stripped of their immunity and persecuted for freedom of expression.

Measures Against Anwar Bunni

This has just come in from Farid. If true it is very worrying:

Washington DC - February 19, 2007/The Syria Monitor Blog/ -- In an unprecedented move, the Syrian Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs has declared before the criminal court its intention to criminalize activist lawyer Anwar Bunni and then to present the ruling, once it comes out, to the Ministry of the Interior in order to strip Bunni of his citizenship, according to reports in AKI (Arabic, 2/19/07) and Elaph (Arabic, 2/18/07).

The Ministry, which called for the maximum sentence, also demanded compensation for all the sums received by Bunni from the EU Commission, as director of the (partially EU-funded) center for human rights which he opened in Syria and which the Syrian authorities shut down a week after its opening.

TO VIEW FULL ITEM CLICK HERE