This report is the latest in our series on Syria. Today’s report is in two parts:
1) NCF Casualty estimates and
2) All other Casualty estimates. The second half of this latter report is so extensive that we have only included the summary here under the title “Casualties in more detail”. The full background by region of Syria can be accessed on the NCF Syria blog on the following link: FULL SYRIA CASUALTY FIGURES
Casualties – The NCF casualty estimates
Again, we have delayed the publication of this report to get all information available. And again, we acknowledge the inaccuracy of much of the data here. We are using all available sources. We are glad to see that the government SANA website has again started reporting some casualty figures after more than a month in which it failed to give any figures. The additional source is useful. Less helpful is the fact that the Syrian Observatory’s figures are becoming more difficult to follow. At the time of writing their figures for Thursday were not available and they have started classifying some bodies as unidentified (perhaps understandably given the levels of violence) which means it becomes impossible to know whether they are rebel fighters or civilians. This week we have decided to classify unidentified bodies as civilian but we will review the policy. We must again caution you that there are no independent sources (other than the occasional news report). We note that rebel casualties are therefore under-reported and government / civilian casualties probably over reported. We hope you will use your discernment. The main value of these figures is as an indication of a trend. We are going to give you our casualty estimates and then give you data from the other sources upon which they are based so that you can arrive at your own conclusions. The full background data upon which those other casualty estimates are based can be found on the NCF Syria blog on the link listed above.
Those killed in the past week
The NCF estimates based on all available sources are as follows.
CIVILIAN CASUALTIES
(LCC figure minus highest rebel casualty figure)
Date
|
Civilian casualties
|
Mon 23
|
149
|
Tues 24
|
131
|
Wed 25
|
98
|
Thu 26
|
167
|
Fri 27
|
79
|
Sat 28
|
123
|
Sun 29
|
82
|
TOTAL
|
829
|
REBEL CASUALTIES
(Rebel casualty figures seem unrealistically low and as such the NCF has chosen the highest available figures) – even so the figures for rebel dead are clearly hugely underreported this week
Date
|
Rebel casualties
|
Mon 23
|
26
|
Tues 24
|
19
|
Wed 25
|
31
|
Thu 26
|
33
|
Fri 27
|
21
|
Sat 28
|
37
|
Sun 29
|
32
|
TOTAL
|
199
|
GOVERNMENT CASUALTIES
(The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights is the only organisation that has consistent figures for government casualties.)
Date
|
Government casualties
|
Mon 23
|
35
|
Tues 24
|
31
|
Wed 25
|
41
|
Thu 26
|
NA
|
Fri 27
|
35
|
Sat 28
|
41
|
Sun 29
|
45
|
TOTAL
|
228
|
Weekly Casualty estimates
The number of civilian casualties has remained massive but held steady during the past week. The number of combatants killed has decreased. Note that the number of rebel dead are underreported as usual with rebel dead, in some instances, counted as civilian dead (as a consequence of which we will reconsider our method of calculating rebel dead as of next week – possibly changing from taking the highest available figure per day, to the highest available figure per district per day):
Civilian dead:
829 dead this past week ending 30 July
848 dead last week ending 23 July
454 dead the week ending 16 July
462 dead the week ending 9 July
665 dead the week ending 2 July
373 dead the week ended 25 June
350 dead the week ended 18 June
105 dead the week ended 11 June
Rebel dead:
199 dead this past week ending 30 July
211 dead last week ending 23 July
170 dead the week ending 16 July
70 dead the week ending 9 July
107 dead the week ending 2 July
77 dead the week ended 25 June
41 dead the week ended 18 June
40 dead the week ended 11 June
Government dead:
228 dead this past week ending 30 July
348 dead last week ending 23 July
237 dead the week ending 16 July
191 dead last week ending 9 July
256 dead the week ending 2 July
143 dead the week ended 25 June
53 dead the week ended 18 June
92 dead the week ended 11 June
Casualties in more detail
The numbers of reported casualties follows in a table in which the source is given and a day by day breakdown of totals. For more detail including a breakdown of these figures by region go to the NCF Syria blog on this link.
TOTAL CIVILIAN CASUALTIES
SYRIAN OBSERVATORY FOR HUMAN RIGHTS
|
VIOLATIONS DOCUMENTING CENTRE
|
SYRIAN ARAB NEWS AGENCY
|
SYRIAN NETWORK FOR HUMAN RIGHTS
|
LOCAL COORDINATION COMMITTEES
|
SYRIAN SHUHADA
| |
Mon 23
|
125
|
134
|
142
|
175
|
167
| |
Tues 24
|
119
|
165
|
152
|
150
|
194
| |
Wed 25
|
98
|
98
|
143
|
129
|
148
| |
Thu 26
|
50
|
149
|
178
|
200
|
197
| |
Fri 27
|
87
|
116
|
143
|
100
|
151
| |
Sat 28
|
121
|
163
|
186
|
160
|
200
| |
Sun 29
|
88
|
104
|
162
|
114
|
113
|
TOTAL REBEL CASUALTIES
SYRIAN OBSERVATORY FOR HUMAN RIGHTS
|
VIOLATIONS DOCUMENTING CENTRE
|
SYRIAN ARAB NEWS AGENCY
|
SYRIAN NETWORK FOR HUMAN RIGHTS
|
LOCAL COORDINATION COMMITTEES
|
SYRIAN SHUHADA
| |
Mon 23
|
19
|
26
|
2
|
5
| ||
Tues 24
|
12
|
19
|
5
|
8
| ||
Wed 25
|
31
|
21
|
16
|
4
| ||
Thu 26
|
33
|
32
|
16
|
4
| ||
Fri 27
|
19
|
19
|
5
|
21
| ||
Sat 28
|
37
|
26
|
30
|
28
| ||
Sun 29
|
32
|
10
|
17
|
4
|
TOTAL GOVERNMENT CASUALTIES
SYRIAN OBSERVATORY FOR HUMAN RIGHTS
|
VIOLATIONS DOCUMENTING CENTRE
|
SYRIAN ARAB NEWS AGENCY
|
SYRIAN NETWORK FOR HUMAN RIGHTS
|
LOCAL COORDINATION COMMITTEES
|
SYRIAN SHUHADA
| |
Mon 23
|
35
| |||||
Tues 24
|
31
| |||||
Wed 25
|
41
| |||||
Thu 26
|
NA
| |||||
Fri 27
|
35
| |||||
Sat 28
|
41
| |||||
Sun 29
|
45
|
The LCC figures do not distinguish between civilians and rebel soldiers (lumping both groups together as “martyrs”). As the LCC is a local organisation on the ground in Syria, we have made a decision that for the present we will use their figures for NCF estimates of civilian dead (but first deducting our totals for rebel fighters killed).
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