Wednesday, August 29, 2012

NCF Casualty Report- week ending 27th of August


This report is the latest in our series on Syria. Today’s report is in two parts:
1)       NCF Casualty estimates and
2)       All other Casualty estimates. The second half of this latter report is so extensive that we have only included the summary here under the title “Casualties in more detail”. The full background by region of Syria can be accessed on the NCF Syria blog on the following link: FULL SYRIA CASUALTY FIGURES

Casualties – The NCF casualty estimates

The NCF estimates for civilian dead are enormous this week and represent the highest ever civilian total. Caution must be exercised. Some press reports (e.g. 60 dead bodies on a rubbish dump in Katana- seem on closer investigation to be false though we do our best to investigate these when we can). There are no independent sources for casualty estimates (other than the occasional news report). The casualty figures for “government dead” that the NCF uses in this report are based on those from the Syrian Observatory which are the only figures for government dead available. We hope you will use your discernment. The main value of these figures is as an indication of a trend. We give you our casualty estimates and then give you data from the other sources upon which they are based so that you can arrive at your own conclusions. The full background data upon which those other casualty estimates are based can be found on the NCF Syria blog on this link.

CIVILIAN CASUALTIES
(Total LCC figure is used, from which total the NCF rebel casualty figure is subtracted to give a net figure)
Date
Civilian casualties
Mon 20
118
Tues 21
189
Wed 22
83
Thu 23
128
Fri 24
139
Sat 25
410
Sun 26
212
TOTAL
1279





















REBEL CASUALTIES
(Rebel casualty figures are now being calculated on the highest reported figure for each day and area)

Date
Rebel casualties
Mon 20
32
Tues 21
21
Wed 22
100
Thu 23
43
Fri 24
62
Sat 25
20
Sun 26
31
TOTAL
309



GOVERNMENT CASUALTIES
(The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights is the only organisation that has consistent figures for government casualties and we therefore use their figures for government dead)

Date
Government casualties
Mon 20
47
Tues 21
34
Wed 22
51
Thu 23
37
Fri 24
36
Sat 25
39
Sun 26
28
TOTAL
272


















Weekly Casualty estimates – an overview
The number of civilian casualties has soared during the past week; the number of government combatants killed has also remained high and also the number of rebel dead:

Civilian dead:
1279 dead in the past week ending 27 August
766 dead in the past week ending 20 August
469 dead this past week ending 13 August
491 dead the week ending 6 August
829 dead the week ending 30 July
848 dead the week ending 23 July
454 dead the week ending 16 July
462 dead the week ending 9 July
665 dead the week ending 2 July
373 dead the week ended 25 June 
350 dead the week ended 18 June 
105 dead the week ended 11 June 

Rebel dead:
309 dead this past week ending 27 August
373 dead this past week ending 20 August
598 dead this past week ending 13 August
379 dead the week ending 6 August
199 dead the week ending 30 July
211 dead the week ending 23 July
170 dead the week ending 16 July
70 dead the week ending 9 July
107 dead the week ending 2 July
77 dead the week ended 25 June
41 dead the week ended 18 June 
40 dead the week ended 11 June 


Government dead:
272 dead this past week ending 27 August
269 dead this past week ending 20 August
309 dead this past week ending 13 August
297 dead the week ending 6 August
228 dead the week ending 30 July
348 dead the week ending 23 July
237 dead the week ending 16 July
191 dead last week ending 9 July
256 dead the week ending 2 July
143 dead the week ended 25 June
53 dead the week ended 18 June 
92 dead the week ended 11 June 

Casualties in more detail
The numbers of reported casualties per source follows in a table in which the source is given and a day by day breakdown of totals. For more detail including a breakdown of these figures by region (which must be examined in order to understand the full basis on which NCF casualty estimates are calculated) go to the NCF Syria blog on this link.
TOTAL CIVILIAN CASUALTIES

SYRIAN OBSERVATORY FOR HUMAN RIGHTS
VIOLATIONS DOCUMENTING CENTRE
SYRIAN ARAB NEWS AGENCY
SYRIAN NETWORK FOR HUMAN RIGHTS
LOCAL COORDINATION COMMITTEES
SYRIAN SHUHADA
Mon 20
113
152
NA
NA
150
139
Tues 21
152
159
NA
NA
210
231
Wed 22
115
150
NA
183
183
202
Thu 23
165
131
NA
207
171
216
Fri 24
134
188
NA
214
201
224
Sat 25
304
289
NA
336
430
424
Sun 26
122
140
NA
276
243
291


TOTAL REBEL CASUALTIES

SYRIAN OBSERVATORY FOR HUMAN RIGHTS
VIOLATIONS DOCUMENTING CENTRE
SYRIAN ARAB NEWS AGENCY
SYRIAN NETWORK FOR HUMAN RIGHTS
LOCAL COORDINATION COMMITTEES
SYRIAN SHUHADA
Mon 20
32
15
14
NA
NA
14
Tues 21
21
13
NA
NA
NA
10
Wed 22
18
11
88
NA
NA
15
Thu 23
11
11
33
NA
NA
13
Fri 24
35
19
54
NA
NA
21
Sat 25
21
20
NA
NA
NA
15
Sun 26
26
17
24
NA
NA
13


TOTAL GOVERNMENT CASUALTIES

SYRIAN OBSERVATORY FOR HUMAN RIGHTS
VIOLATIONS DOCUMENTING CENTRE
SYRIAN ARAB NEWS AGENCY
SYRIAN NETWORK FOR HUMAN RIGHTS
LOCAL COORDINATION COMMITTEES
SYRIAN SHUHADA
Mon 20
47
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Tues 21
34
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Wed 22
51
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Thu 23
37
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Fri 24
36
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Sat 25
39
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Sun 26
28
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA



Most organisations including the LCC figures do not distinguish between civilians and rebel soldiers (lumping both groups together as “martyrs”).

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