Population Figures

This report is the latest in our series on Syria

The population of Syria

Every week we have committed ourselves to dealing with media issues. Today we cover the Syrian population figures, looking at both the ethnic and confessional divides. The media currently uses the CIA figures, which are similar to those used by Wikipedia. But these figures are confusing and in some degree arbitrary. Hopefully we shall manage to do better:

We have not placed our NCF estimates at the beginning of this report. We feel you should look at the available data for yourself first. You will find the NCF estimates at the conclusion.

The Syrian population is extremely fragmented and it is difficult to estimate the numbers of those in the different religious and ethnic groups. Particularly in this time of crisis (the numbers of those killed, displaced or fleeing the country may soon start to impact population figures).

The majority are generally accepted to be Sunni Arabs, though many significant minority groups also exist including the Kurds (themselves predominantly but not exclusively Sunni), Christians, Alawites, Druze plus smaller minority groups such as the Armenians (often lumped with the Christians), the Shiites / Ismailis (often lumped with the Alawites) and the Turkmen. There are other far smaller confessional groups such as the Yezidis and Jews but they do not overall impact population figures in a any significant way. Most sources for population figures make a distinction between numbers for ethnic groups and religious groups.

This hyperlink leads you to a crude confessional map of Syria which indicates the areas where the compilers believe some religions are prominent. It indicates that Sunni Muslim is the dominant religion with other religious groups including Shia Muslim, Christian, Yazidi and Druze spread across the country in clusters. It should be viewed with caution more as an indication than an accurate map.

Below are the figures for the ethnic breakdown of Syria used by the US / UK governments (the US State Department made more detailed estimates in 2006). These of course lump Arab Muslims. Alawites, and most Christians (other than Syria’s c. half-a-million Armenians) together as Arabs. They are largely extrapolations from earlier census figures which were themselves flawed (e.g. a significant proportion of the Kurdish population were not registered as “citizens” of Syria).

Ethnic groups:

	Arab	Kurds	Other (Armenian, Turkmans etc)
State Department (March 2012)	90%	9%	1%
CIA (July 2012)	90.3%	9%	0.7%
Foreign Office (May 2012)	90.3%	9%	0.7%

Their figures for religious groups are perhaps more enlightening; though here Sunni Arabs are lumped together with the bulk of the Kurds under the heading “Sunni Muslim”.

Religious groups:

	Sunni Muslim	Christian	Alawite	Druze	Other
State Department (March 2012)	74%	10%	12%	3%	1%
CIA (July 2012)	74%	10%	(others lumped together 16%)
Foreign Office (May 2012)	72%	12%	14%		2%

An invaluable reference point is provided by “historic” population figures from the few census tables available on the basis that different groups should grow in population at a similar rate, with the possible exception of Christians as they tend to have smaller families. Don’t forget however, the tendency to undercount the Kurds. There is also a traditional reluctance on the part of Alawite community to declare themselves “Alawite” because of historic persecution of the sect resulting in families which are what Alawites call “hidden Alawites” who would be recorded as Sunnis. NCF Note: The 1963 figures used below are extracts from those provided by the Hon Ivor Lucas (former UK ambassador to Syria) to the Royal Society for Asian Affairs in his 1993 lecture. He writes: I gave the following figures for 1963, when the Ba’thists came to power and the total population was about half what it is now. Muslims were an overwhelming majority, but split between Sunnis (70% of the total population) and three minority sects – Alawites (sic) about 11%, Druze 3%, and Ismailis 1.5%. The Christian communities comprised about 12% and dwindling. As regards ethnic minorities, Kurds amounted to 8.5% of the total population, Armenians 4%, Turkomans 3% and Palestinians over 2%. The latter were mostly refugees from 1948, destined to increase after the Six Day War of 1967 and to be a potent source of instability. In the context of the NCF report, I would have thought that the significant statistics were, in terms of the total population, approximately Muslims 90%, Sunnis (including Kurds) 70%, Alawites 10% and Christians now about 8%.

Historic figures:

	1943 Census	1963
Sunni Muslim	68%	70%
Alawite	11.5%	11%
Druze	3%	3%
Ismaili	1%	1.5%
Shia	0.5%
Christian	14%	12%
Jews	1%
Yazidis	0.1%
Kurds		8.5%
Total population	2,860,411	12,000,000

NCF sources from the Kurdish and Alawite communities have also provided us with their position on population figures which are very interesting as a comparative tool. The Kurdish figures are provided by a senior member of the KDP in consultation with his party. The Alawite figures by an Alawite former member of the government. We acknowledge of course, that for political reasons different confessional groups will wish to maximise their own numbers.

KURDISH SOURCE ON KURDISH POPULATION FIGURES

Area	Numbers	Percent (%)
Efrin City	850,000	3.8
Aleppo City	750,000	3.4
Kubany City	400,000	1.8
Albab City	60,000	0.3
Alsfira	40,000	0.2
Gabal Alsammaan	12,000	0.05
Azaz	25,000	0.1
Garablus	20,000	0.08
Munbeg	15,000	0.06
Damascus	550,000	2.4
Raqa	50,000	0.2
Latakia	50,000	0.2
Hamah	20,000	0.08
Hasakeh	1,650,000	7.3
TOTAL	4,492,000	20%

ALAWITE SOURCE ON POPULATION FIGURES

	Sunni Arab	Kurdish	Christian	Alawite	Others (Yazidis, Jews, Turkmans)
Alawite source	50%	5%	10%	24%	10%

ALAWITE SOURCE ON ALAWITE POPULATION FIGURES

Area	Numbers	Percent (%)
Aleppo City	1,000,000	4.4
Damascus, Homs and Aleppo provinces	1,500,000	6.7
Latakia	1,200,000	5.3
Tartous	1,200,000	5.3
Other	500,000	2.2
TOTAL	5,400,000	24%

There are also a number of Iraqi and Palestinian refugees in Syria. In 2007, UNHCR estimated that the number of Iraqi refugees in Syria was over 1.2 million (NCF estimate 1.5 million of whom nearly 50% are Christian – some have started to return to Kurdish Iraq). According the United Nations Relief and Work Agency, there are still about 0.5 million Palestinian refugees in Syria in 2012 (Syria born young men of Palestinian extraction have been at the forefront of the uprising).

Using the above information and working with a crude estimation of the Syria population, as provided by the CIA at 22.5 million, the NCF have attempted to make estimates of the current demographic divisions. This was attempted before in February 2012. The most recent figures have been estimated by taking an average of the above data. We realise that any such estimate is very contentious.

NCF team estimates:

	Sunni Arab	Kurdish	Christian	Alawite	Druze	Others (Yazidis, Jews, Turkmans)
NCF Feb 2012	51%	14%	8.5%	14%	3%	6%
NCF July 2012	56.5%	12.5%	12%	14%	3%	2%

Our July estimate thus places the total Muslim population of Syria at JUST OVER 83% (Turkmans who are classified along with others in the above are of course also Muslim) and Christians, Druze and others at just under 17%. There are those who would also classify Druze as Muslim. We are also aware that our latest figures put the Kurdish population a little low and the Christian and Alawite figures a little high – perhaps taking an average of available data is not the best solution. The 1943 census had a total Muslim population for Syria of 81% (Sunni Muslim plus Alawite plus Shiite plus Ismaili). It would be interesting to ask a specialist in Geographical Information Systems (GIS) to take this and all other available data and produce a proper analysis of the population of Syria. This we will do at some point and provide you with revised data. We were prompted to conduct the above exercise after hearing a broadcaster who shall be nameless state that Alawites were 3% of the Syrian population. As the conflict becomes increasingly sectarian it is important that whatever figures journalists use, they are at least realistic.