Casualty Figures

This report is the latest in our series on Syria. Today’s report is in two parts:

1)      NCF Casualty estimates and

2)      All other Casualty estimates. The second half of this latter report is so extensive that we have only included the summary here under the title “Casualties in more detail”. The full background by region of Syria can be accessed on the NCF Syria blog  on the following link: FULL SYRIA CASUALTY FIGURES

3)      A special report from the NCF Team on the Tremseh incident which is published unedited – as received from the team – so that you can draw your own conclusions

Casualties – The NCF casualty estimates

We have delayed the release of this report until this evening in order to include comprehensive casualty reports for the past week. We are releasing our weekly figures today (Tuesday evening) because it gives us time to analyse the data coming in over the weekend. We are going to give you our casualty estimates and then give you data from the other sources upon which they are based so that you can arrive at your own conclusions. The full background data upon which those other casualty estimates are based can be found on the news section of the NCF website on the links listed above. The data is too copious to include in this report.

Special note on Tremseh from the NCF Secretary General

The NCF Team has been tasked with the harrowing job of looking through all material from the Tremseh Massacre, including all videos of the dead and all emotional reports from the survivors. They are of the opinion that the most accurate guess at casualty figures can be made by taking an average of all lists. They are much influenced by some of the testimony from the Spanish journalist who escaped to Turkey and some eyewitness reports.

They calculate 133 as a credible estimate for civilian dead at Tremseh. They accept the government figure of 37 for rebel fighters killed (noting that it seems low when measured against the number of young males of fighting age found amongst the dead). They have no particular reason to argue with the government figure of 3 Syrian Army soldiers killed at Tremseh.

Note that though originally the LCCs published a list of 103 named casualties confirmed dead for Tremseh (out of a total claim for civilian dead of over 200). They had to revise that down to 68 confirmed dead thus far when it became apparent that their original list included both dead and wounded.

The NCF Secretary General disagrees with the NCF Team. He notes that the credible casualty lists available are mostly of male dead of fighting age. He questions the partiality of the Spanish journalist who was possibly embedded with the Spanish FSA volunteers (see previous NCF reports on international involvement). He notes that whereas at Houla there was a predominance of women and children casualties (the men having been quicker to flee), here at Tremseh most of the casualties are indeed fighting age males. All credible direct Syrian sources with which the NCF Secretary General has spoken put Tremseh down as a battle which was a major defeat for the FSA. Rebel reports that people are missing or were “killed fleeing through the fields” do not accord with our directly sourced reports that Tremseh village was surrounded at dawn in a surgical attack in which no one was allowed to escape.

The NCF Secretary General believes the true figure for civilian dead at Tremseh to be close to our earlier estimate of 50. However this is a team effort and he will not overrule the tem. The NCF Team’s estimates prevail will be used in the report below despite the misgivings at the over reporting of civilian dead by the NCF Secretary General. You can make your own mind up.

FURTHER NOTE: We continue to use Syrian Observatory figures for government soldiers killed. However, for the second week running the Syrian Observatory figures are totally unsupported. In other words they have started merely putting down a global figure for each day. We are aware that government figures killed are high – but this high? Unless the Syrian Observatory mends its ways and starts to provide credibly sourced figures again, from next week we will switch to using the highest figure per day for government casualties from any other source available instead of the Syrian Observatory figure (where possible) even if that figure is a partial figure. We are aware of the large number of coffins being delivered to Syrian Army war widows in Latakia but we feel that the Syrian Observatory may be giving way to the needs of propaganda.

Those killed in the past week

The NCF estimates based on all available sources are as follows. NCF note – we are doing our very best to give you the most accurate estimate available. We ourselves recognise that these figures may vary widely from the actual truth. There are no reliable figures available, largely because of the chaos within Syria:

(*Tremseh estimates have been reached in a different way. Civilian casualties have been estimated by taking an average of all the figures for the massacre. For rebel casualties we take the highest available figure. Government casualty figures continue to be difficult to find and the Syrian Observatory have stopped doing a breakdown of the figures, thus on the 12^th they give a total figure but not a figure for Tremseh only. The only figure for government casualties at Tremseh is given by SANA and is included below. )

CIVILIAN CASUALTIES

(LCC figure – highest rebel casualty figure)

Date	Civilian casualties
09/07	31
10/07	42
11/07	33
12/07	51
TREMSEH*	133
13/07	55
14/07	52
15/07	57
TOTAL	454

REBEL CASUALTIES

(Rebel casualty figures seem unrealistically low and as such the NCF has chosen the highest available figures)

Date	Rebel casualties
09/07	21
10/07	26
11/07	28
12/07	16
TREMSEH*	37
13/07	25
14/07	23
15/07	15
TOTAL	170

GOVERNMENT CASUALTIES

(Though massively under-reported the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights is the only organisation that has consistent figures for government casualties.)

Date	Government casualties
09/07	34
10/07	26
11/07	28
12/07	32
TREMSEH*	3
13/07	37
14/07	39
15/07	41
TOTAL	237

Weekly Casualty estimates

The number of civilian casualties has decreased slightly (despite Tremseh) during the past week. Note that these figures do not include the latest fighting in Damascus which will fall into next week’s figures. Regardless of which, the number of combatants killed has increased massively:

Civilian dead:

454 dead this past week ending 16 July

462 dead last week ending 9 July

665 dead the week ending 2 July

373 dead the week ended 25 June  

350 dead the week ended 18 June 

105 dead the week ended 11 June 

Rebel dead:

170 dead this past week ending 16 July

70 dead last week ending 9 July

107 dead the week ending 2 July

77 dead the week ended 25 June

41 dead the week ended 18 June 

40 dead the week ended 11 June 

Government dead:

237 dead this past week ending 16 July

191 dead last week ending 9 July

256 dead the week ending 2 July

143 dead the week ended 25 June

53 dead the week ended 18 June 

92 dead the week ended 11 June 

Casualties in more detail

The numbers of reported casualties follows in a table in which the source is given and a day by day breakdown of totals. For more detail including a breakdown of these figures by region go to the NCF Syria blog on this link.

TOTAL CIVILIAN CASUALTIES

	SYRIAN OBSERVATORY FOR HUMAN RIGHTS	VIOLATIONS DOCUMENTING CENTRE	SYRIAN ARAB NEWS AGENCY	SYRIAN NETWORK FOR HUMAN RIGHTS	LOCAL COORDINATION COMMITTEES	SYRIAN SHUHADA
09/07	34	53	2	81	52	87
10/07	35	49	-	66	68	67
11/07	44	51	4	74	61	61
12/07	56	75	-	90	67	67
TREMSEH	160	69	2	71	220	231
13/07	55	81	2	97	80	96
14/07	54	60	-	88	75	71
15/07	59	70	8	95	72	96

TOTAL REBEL CASUALTIES

	SYRIAN OBSERVATORY FOR HUMAN RIGHTS	VIOLATIONS DOCUMENTING CENTRE	SYRIAN ARAB NEWS AGENCY	SYRIAN NETWORK FOR HUMAN RIGHTS	LOCAL COORDINATION COMMITTEES	SYRIAN SHUHADA
09/07	21	4	2			7
10/07	26	18				3
11/07	9	28				4
12/07	14	16				2
TREMSEH	10	1	37
13/07	25	12	2			3
14/07	23	15				2
15/07	11	15				6

TOTAL GOVERNMENT CASUALTIES

	SYRIAN OBSERVATORY FOR HUMAN RIGHTS	VIOLATIONS DOCUMENTING CENTRE	SYRIAN ARAB NEWS AGENCY	SYRIAN NETWORK FOR HUMAN RIGHTS	LOCAL COORDINATION COMMITTEES	SYRIAN SHUHADA
09/07	34	1	2
10/07	26
11/07	28
12/07	32
TREMSEH			3
13/07	37
14/07	39	2
15/07	41		8

SANA has stopped reporting the numbers of government forces killed.

The LCC figures do not distinguish between civilians and rebel soldiers (lumping both groups together as “martyrs”). As the LCC is a local organisation on the ground in Syria, we have made a decision that for the present we will use their figures for NCF estimates of civilian dead (but first deducting our totals for rebel fighters killed).

Tremseh Special Report

The following report is included unedited – as received from the NCF Team:

It is proving almost impossible to come to a conclusion regarding the death toll following the events in Tremseh last Thursday. With so many conflicting estimates and abundant rumours circulating, all we can do is compare the various strands of evidence, objectively decide which we feel is the most reliable and make our own estimation. According to initial reports from a Next Century Foundation source in Syria on the victims of the Tremseh massacre, the death count has risen to 150. Forty of them were buried in a mass grave at once in Treimseh and there appears to be video footage of this. Seven were buried in the village of Kafar Hood, and six in the village of Deemo. The 150 estimate includes at least 40 victims that were so badly burned that is has been impossible to identify them.

The identification issue is just one of many problems arising in the attempt to obtain an accurate number of victims. Two bodies were found at the home of Mr. Sh’hada al-Younes, four at the home of Mahmoud Darweesh, one corpse belonging to Sheikh Waheed Qattash was moved from the home of Mus’ab al-Hasno, in addition to more than ten corpses moved from the home of Sami Sh’hada, and four bodies that were found in a burnt out car. 

Another more concerning issue is the reports that claim the bodies of 25 victims were stolen by government forces and are currently at the 47th Brigade, south of Hama. This is all in addition to more than 250 people that were detained by the Assad shabiha militias located in the village of Salhab. There are still tens of missing people, and the numbers are on the rise due to the difficulty in communication with neighbouring villages where a number of corpses were moved but no details on the numbers have been provided. Reports that there are also many unaccounted for lying in nearby fields adds to the difficulty of counting exactly how many were killed and who they were.

Journalist Daniel Leal Olivas has described what he saw when he went into Tremseh shortly after the events of Thursday 12^th. He said he saw evidence of fresh tank tracks and damage from mortar shells. He claims that the government cannot deny use of heavy weaponry and that the level of damage could not be blamed on rebel weapons and damage. He spoke at length with terrified and desperate residents, in fear of their lives and saw pools of blood in numerous houses.

As with all reports emerging from Tremseh there are many different variations regarding the methods of killing used. Some report heavy shelling, arbitrary gunfire, and field executions with bullets and knives.

One of the more horrifying discoveries is that of the 30-40 burned corpses that were found, some very small, suggesting they may be children. The initial cause of death has not been determined and it is unknown whether some of the victims were burned while they were still alive.

The rebel footage of uncovered, butchered bodies, shrouded bodies and the carnage left in the aftermath of the Tremseh incident is undeniably shocking and gruesome in nature but it is important to remember that it is not necessarily reliable. It is interesting to note that most of the bodies that appear in the videos are young males of fighting age and this correlates with the list of names that has been published by the Syrian Network.

It is clear, however, from most sources and the footage we have seen, that women and children were also killed. It is very difficult though to get any real idea of the numbers killed from the videos and who they were. AFP has posted a report from an activist who is part of the Sham News Network claiming that most of the dead were Free Syrian Army fighters and an activist at a media center in Hama also said "a large number of rebels were killed in fighting between the FSA and the regular army." This is in total contrast to many reports that most of the dead are civilians.

Facebook activist Sumayya Saleh reports that Tremseh was subjected to violent shelling by the Assad army since the early hours of the morning on the 12^th July. A convoy composed of 25 cars filled with army personnel and security forces, 3 BMPs, 5 Zell cars with Shelka, and a number of Shabiha from surrounding villages headed toward the town. They surrounded the village from all sides and prevented residents from leaving. After the shelling Saleh says that the Shabiha from surrounding pro-regime villages stormed the village and those who survived the shelling were slaughtered. Saleh claims a shocking total of 220 dead, which is the figure clung to by the Western press and most activists. This figure does seem unrealistically high.

An EA Worldview contact claims that he communicated with someone inside the village who reported that there were 220 bodies in the town, some of whom had been gathered in the mosque and more lay outside of it. Though there is no way to independently verify this claim, according to EA, this is a source that has been consistently reliable. Their source, who visited Tremseh after what is being called a massacre, described the devastation. Abu Mohammad, a resident of a nearby village named Kfar Hod, said he had visited Tremseh afterward, described in a telephone interview a scene of devastation, with bodies strewed in fields, on streets and in private homes. He said about 50 corpses had been retrieved from the Orontes River adjoining the village. He said a convoy of vehicles from Alawite villages had parked outside the village early Thursday, including five trucks filled with soldiers, and began shooting, backed by tanks along the village’s eastern edge. Pro-Assad militiamen known as Shabiha deployed on the western edge of the village, he said, and “fired at anyone or any car that tried to leave the village.”

So now we must look at the totals we have collected and try to come to some sort of conclusion for ourselves. Here is a simple table compiled by the NCF team:

	SYRIAN OBSERV	CENTRE FOR DOCS OF VIOLATIONS	SANA	SYRIAN NETWORK	LCC	SYRIAN SHUHADA
CIVILIANS	160	69	2	71	220	231
REBELS	10	1	37	-	-	-
TOTAL	170	70	39	71	220	231

The Syrian Revolution Martyr Database has come up with 231, another large total which is perhaps due to their pro-opposition agenda. They will be very keen to have as large a number as possible to publish. Their total does include some women and children under 18 but it is difficult for us to rely on this source.

The Independent newspaper reported that despite initially claiming that more than 200 civilians died in last week's events they have now been provided with a list of 103. Some opposition activists then reduced that list down to 68 names, saying the first count mistakenly included some of the wounded. This just indicates the problem with trusting the huge range numbers with which are faced. It is proving impossible to decipher who is being included in the total. How do we work out how many civilians, rebels and government soldiers were killed? The Damascus Center for Human Rights Studies claims that Residents affirmed the disappearance of more than two hundred citizens, locals, and the wounding of 300-400 others, whereas the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said that it had been able to confirm only 103 names, 90 percent of which were young men.

Needless to say the Syrian government has repeatedly come up with ludicrously low figures regarding the number of dead, initially starting with over 50 and most recently Jihad Makdissi claiming that only 37 rebels and 2 civilians were killed. Now we know that this is not true.

The only way it seems that we at the NCF Team can make any sort of sense of this web of numbers it to look at who is most consistently reliable and work out some sort of midway average between the lowest and highest estimates. This, we conclude comes to approximately 133 dead.