Syria Report

NCF daily Report on Syrian Issue – Strategic issues – Report dated 11 June 2006 (evening)

• The professional class in Damascus have started arming themselves for fear of violence. Business people are being threatened with retribution by rebels if they open their stores (threats that are proving effective).
• There is a rise in criminality such as theft, looting, rape and murder in the capital.

• International sanctions are causing shortages in gas and domestic goods.

• Rebels have a strong presence in the Hama, Dera’a and Damascus countryside (Duma, Harasta).

• Volunteer fighters joining the rebel forces from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Algeria and Tunisia.

• Fighting between rebels and regime forces has spread to the Damascus neighbourhoods of Qaboun and Barzeh, and the Harasta district.

• Large parts of northern and central Syria have not so much fallen under rebel control as fallen out of government control, e.g. suburban areas north of Aleppo such as Izzaz and Atareb.

• Parts of Homs (like Al Khalidiya district)and most of Idlib and Jebel Zawiya are out of government control

• Syrian rebels are now becoming an effective guerrilla force with new regional military councils (e.g. Homs Military Council). Rebels are pinning government forces into their security checkpoints thus restricting their movement.

The NCF Syria research team identified the following casualty figures as reasonably credible:

Tuesday 5 June

• Attack on Heffa Heights near Latakia 58 government soldiers killed (opposition claim)

Wednesday 6 June

• Qubair village (West of Hamma) indeterminate number killed - opposition claim 78 civilians dead - government claims 9 civilians killed

Friday 8 June

• Rebel attack on bus carrying Russian workers in Damascus. Indeterminate number of dead

Saturday 9 June

• Heffa Heights - 10 civilians killed in shelling (6 children)

• Katena Town (West of Damascus) 3 civilians killed by government forces (Katena is a military town largely pro-government and under strong government control)

• Indeterminate number of civilian deaths in Derra due to shelling

Sunday 10 June

• Qusseir, South of Homs near Lebanese border 6 rebels dead

• Latakia, Haafa, Derra 46 killed (opposition claim) of whom 20 are rebel soldiers and one is a Syrian Army defector – the rest are civilians (10 of whom were children)

• Attack on Aghannto air defence base in Rastan, north of Homs - Indeterminate number of government soldiers killed, base virtually over-run (satellite pictures). 40 defectors from this missile base (rebel information) took SAM missiles with them. The Syrian Army counterattacked the rebel strongholds in the city of Homs, and the surrounding towns of Qusaiyr, Rastan and Talbisa.

Monday 11 June

• Deir Ezzor province, East Syria (El Eshara): At least 8 identified as dead so far today of whom an indeterminate proportion are civilians. 6 government soldiers killed (opposition sources)

• Hama province: in the villages of Qastoun, Shaghourit and al-Laj - 3 rebels dead and one government soldier

• Following yesterday’s airbase attack, Rastan town under bombardment – four civilians dead including one child

• Derra - Baath party official assassinated

• Qusseir - security checkpoint overrun – indeterminate number of government dead

• Idlib (opposition sources) 7 government soldiers killed (bus bombing) 2 civilians and 2 rebels

• Government military funerals for security forces dead from Latakia, Homs, Deir Azzor and Derra take place today - 26 buried (confirmed – pictures)

• Soldier assassinated (in car) in Barza, Damascus (confirmed pictures)

• Haafa, Latakia - 10 civilians, 2 rebels and an indeterminate number of government soldiers killed.

Observations

The Republican Guard and the powerful Fourth Division of the Syrian Army are still held in reserve. On the other hand burials of Syrian Army soldiers take place almost daily.

The NCF estimates total dead over the past week (from all credible information available to NCF Syria researcher team) as 92 government soldiers / 105 civilians / 40 rebels (note that rebels are reluctant to report their own casualty figures so the total for rebel dead could be considerably higher).