Adel writes: some thoughts on Syria if you
want to share with others:
[[ Details of the EU embargo : In recent years we have seen sanctions being used as a
targeted geopolitical tool. Governments have tended to introduce sanctions
rather more willingly than lift them, and, as a result, the ability of
businesses to operate in certain sectors has been restricted. However we are now
seeing, at least in relation to Myanmar/Burma and, to a lesser extent, Syria,
sanctions being lifted in response to the evolving political landscape in both
countries and it is hoped this will create some opportunities for the
international investment community.
The European Council (“the Council”) has removed certain restrictive measures against both Myanmar/ Burma and Syria. Although the Council has so-far only published its Decisions, the implementing legislation, when published, is expected to reflect the Decisions without substantial amendment
Whilst it is acknowledged that, at least in relation to Syria, such opportunities may be limited, we can hope that opportunities in Myanmar/ Burma may be more significant. In that regard, those in the energy sector will have picked up on the recent announcement that Myanmar/Burma has put on the market a substantial number of oil & gas blocks on a production sharing basis. Apparently 59 prospective bidders have already registered their interest.
Set out below is a summary of the key changes, and their potential impact, which investors may find of interest.
The Council has issued Council Decision 2013/186/CFSP of 22 April 2013 (“the New Syria Decision”) which amends Council Decision 2012/739/ CFSP (the “Existing Syrian Decision”) concerning restrictive measures against Syria, citing the need to help the Syrian civilian population, restore normal life, uphold basic services and reconstruct and restore normal economic activity to Syria.
The New Syria Decision entered into force on 23 April 2013 and provides for three derogations from the existing Syrian restrictions. Competent authorities may authorise the:
.Syria
The relaxation of certain of sanctions against Syria comes amidst growing international support for the opposition forces to the Assad regime, leading to them being increasingly recognised as the legitimate representatives of the Syrian people, and mounting concern at the humanitarian crisis that is unfolding as a result of the ongoing conflict. While it is not yet clear how the application of the derogations and conditions will work in practice, the Council hopes that by lifting the embargo on Syrian oil exports the opposition groups will be able to obtain access to much needed funds and resources to support their activities. The Decision also provides opportunities for international parties to re-engage with the economic opportunities available in Syria and in particular the Syrian oil industry.
William Hague, the British Foreign Security, has expressed caution over how much real economic benefit the derogations will bring to Syria but acknowledged the political importance of the Decision, stating that: “the security situation is so difficult that much of this will be difficult to do, but it is important for us to send the signal that we are open to helping in other ways, in all the ways possible”. While the economic impact of the Council’s Decision remains to be seen the political message that the Council supports the opposition forces is clear.
With reports of growing tensions amongst the opposition groups it is unclear whether the relaxation of the sanctions will achieve the Council’s ambition to assist in bringing the conflict to an end. Although there have been reports that some EU members have been pushing for the arms embargo to be lifted to allow the opposition forces access to weapons, this has not happened because of the fear that any increase in arms in the region could These Decisions reflect the Council’s continued use of so-called “smart sanctions”; strengthening or relaxing economic sanctions in response to the evolving political and humanitarian situation on the ground. Initial reports indicate that both Decisions have been met with cautious approval although serious concerns remain with respect to the political and humanitarian situation in both countries. The Decisions will be kept under review and renewed or amended, as appropriate, as the situation on the ground develops if the Council considers that its objectives have not been met. the conflict. ]]
Also earlier
And earlier :
Our foreign Secretary William Hague heads to
Brussels to attended the European Union Council of ministers meeting Monday (27
May), to discuss, among other issues, amending the embargo on providing arms to
Syrian rebels fighting to overthrew the dictatorial regime of President Bashar
al-Assad in a two year bloody civil war that claimed an estimated 94,000 lives
and turned near one fifth of the population into refugees . Backed mainly by
France, Hague wants to amend the embargo ( which comes to an end or renewal at
midnight Friday 31 May), in order to supply more equipment to the rebels. In
February, the UK and France persuaded other member states, overcoming
considerable reluctance, to allow the supply to the rebels of non-lethal
military equipment for defensive purposes.
In trying to amend the
arms embargo, Britain have the support of France, Italy and Spain while
Germany, so-far, remains neutral against more countries opposing the idea, which
diplomatic sources say, is part of an American agenda to arm the Syrian
rebels.
In the last three occasions when Foreign
secretary Hague made statement to the House of Commons, MPs ( from all sides)
were wares of arms falling into the wrong hands, or learning lessons from
arming Mujahdine in Afghanistan in 1980s or against getting involved in a civil
war; while last months voices raised in the Commons warning of another unwise
military intervention based on unsound intelligence reports.
Prime Ministers David Cameron has asked the EU to
change their attitude to provide more help to the revels. The European Union
should be prepared to change its arms embargo on Syria–a move which could pave
the way for weapons to be sent to the opposition forces–to maintain the pressure
on President Bashar al-Assad, U.K. The PM told EU leaders he fully supported
the U.S.-Russian plan to hold a peace conference on Syria as soon as possible,
but that should not be used as an excuse to ease up the pressure on the Syrian
regime. But he thought it was right to show that the European Union, was ” ..
prepared to change the EU arms embargo so that we can do more to shape the
moderate opposition and up the pressure on Assad.”
Amending the embargo requires unanimous support
of all 27 member states , which is almost certain they will reject the. As
other EU member states have yet to be convinced of the move, the Anglo-French
plans don’t have much chance of success since majority of EU
nations Anglo-French attempt to amend it are questioning this wisdom.
The Czech Republic has been vocal in questioning
the quality of the control over rebel forces exercised by the rebels’ major
political body, the Syrian National Coalition (SNC). The Syrian opposition have
been trying to reach some unifying front, but still no clear who are they or
whether they have much control of events or forces on the ground inside Syria.
Sweden has been the most reluctant to accept the longer-term trend, towards
tougher sanctions against the regime of Assad, arguing that that would limit the
space for a political solution; while Austria has been particularly vocal in
opposing the easing of arms restrictions on the rebels, questioning the need and
the impact. In addition, in recent months, Austrian Chancellor Werner Faymann said that there had been no
EU agreement to lift the weapons embargo on Syria at the leaders’ meeting.
Diplomats from countries objecting to lifting the
embargo advise of waiting the outcome of the American-Russian peace summit
scheduled for June 12. The same view is taken by the aid agency Oxfam saying it
would be “irresponsible” not to widen the arms ban and warned a failure to do so
could extinguish hopes of a breakthrough at the summit according to Oxfam Head
of Arms Control Anna Macdonald. “Allowing the EU arms embargo to end could have
devastating consequences,” warned Oxfam’s “There are no easy answers when trying
to stop the bloodshed in Syria, but sending more arms and ammunition clearly
isn’t one of them.”
The charity warned that attempts by Britain and France to
channel weapons into the hands of rebel fighters could “fan the flames of the
conflict and cost lives.” She warned that arms could be used to commit human
rights violations. More than 94,000 people have lost their lives in the conflict
which flared two years ago following protests against the rule of President
Bashar al-Assad.
What is worrying observers, anti-war campaigners,
MPs and peers alike is what has been reported of pressure from president Obama Administration for EU to arm the rebels. Diplomatic
sources in the Middle East and Europe have been briefing journalists on the US
moves. John Kerry,
the US secretary of state, has been urging the EU to reach consensus on a change
that would allow weapons to be delivered to the rebels – though without any
decision to do so at this stage.
During Mr Hague statement to the House of
Commons, MPs expressed concern that not only arms falling into the wrong hands
with really possibility of being used against our troops in future and our
interests, but it could also lead into complicating the situation and ruining
hard word work by British diplomats working with the Russians, who only last
week succeeded in persuading Assad to accept negotiating with the opposition in
a conference likely to be held in Geneva. Former Commons select committee on
Foreign Affairs chairman Mike Gapes ( Labour MP for South Ilford )made a
speech advising against such folly and instead of arming rebels” We need to …be
battering on the doors of the White House and the Kremlin and doing far more to
get the countries that really can make a difference to stop the process before
it is too late.” (see full speech)
The main concern in Europe is that external
powers supporting both side in the conflict, like Iran and Hizbollah ( which is
listed by US and a number of countries as a terrorist group) are backing and
supplying arms ( as well as sending militia to support his troops) are not
themselves pro-democracy, liberty or reform will have little respect for
human-rights. While authoritarian Gulf Arabs, like the Qataris who arm the
rebels, only believe in democracy as a PR show for holding conference or
television shown, but shown little desire to implement any democratic measures
like given women or non-Muslims equal rights or even implementing basic workers
rights for gust workforce.
The likelihood of the `Monday meeting EU council
of ministers meeting is a compromise in the shape of extending the EU arms
embargo but throwing a bone to the Anglo-French bloc in by anti-Assad regime
strong measure in shape of smart sanctions.
The European Council (“the Council”) has removed certain restrictive measures against both Myanmar/ Burma and Syria. Although the Council has so-far only published its Decisions, the implementing legislation, when published, is expected to reflect the Decisions without substantial amendment
Whilst it is acknowledged that, at least in relation to Syria, such opportunities may be limited, we can hope that opportunities in Myanmar/ Burma may be more significant. In that regard, those in the energy sector will have picked up on the recent announcement that Myanmar/Burma has put on the market a substantial number of oil & gas blocks on a production sharing basis. Apparently 59 prospective bidders have already registered their interest.
Set out below is a summary of the key changes, and their potential impact, which investors may find of interest.
The Council has issued Council Decision 2013/186/CFSP of 22 April 2013 (“the New Syria Decision”) which amends Council Decision 2012/739/ CFSP (the “Existing Syrian Decision”) concerning restrictive measures against Syria, citing the need to help the Syrian civilian population, restore normal life, uphold basic services and reconstruct and restore normal economic activity to Syria.
The New Syria Decision entered into force on 23 April 2013 and provides for three derogations from the existing Syrian restrictions. Competent authorities may authorise the:
- Purchase, import or transport of crude oil and petroleum products from Syria and related financing or financial assistance including financial derivatives as well as insurance and reinsurance
- Sale, supply or transfer of key equipment and technology for the key sectors of the oil and natural gas industry in Syria as well as their sale or supply to Syrian and Syrian owned companies outside Syria and the provision of related technical assistance or training and other services as well as financing or financial assistance
- Grant of a financial loan or credit to, or the acquisition or extension of a participation in enterprises in Syria engaged in the Syrian oil industry or the creation of any joint venture with enterprises in Syria and companies they control which are engaged in the Syrian oil industry
- The Syrian National Coalition for Opposition and Revolutionary Forces must be consulted in advance by the relevant Member State
- The activities concerned (i) must not be directly or indirectly for the benefit of a designated entity whose funds and economic resources have been frozen; and (ii) must not breach any other provisions of the Existing Syria Decision
.Syria
The relaxation of certain of sanctions against Syria comes amidst growing international support for the opposition forces to the Assad regime, leading to them being increasingly recognised as the legitimate representatives of the Syrian people, and mounting concern at the humanitarian crisis that is unfolding as a result of the ongoing conflict. While it is not yet clear how the application of the derogations and conditions will work in practice, the Council hopes that by lifting the embargo on Syrian oil exports the opposition groups will be able to obtain access to much needed funds and resources to support their activities. The Decision also provides opportunities for international parties to re-engage with the economic opportunities available in Syria and in particular the Syrian oil industry.
William Hague, the British Foreign Security, has expressed caution over how much real economic benefit the derogations will bring to Syria but acknowledged the political importance of the Decision, stating that: “the security situation is so difficult that much of this will be difficult to do, but it is important for us to send the signal that we are open to helping in other ways, in all the ways possible”. While the economic impact of the Council’s Decision remains to be seen the political message that the Council supports the opposition forces is clear.
With reports of growing tensions amongst the opposition groups it is unclear whether the relaxation of the sanctions will achieve the Council’s ambition to assist in bringing the conflict to an end. Although there have been reports that some EU members have been pushing for the arms embargo to be lifted to allow the opposition forces access to weapons, this has not happened because of the fear that any increase in arms in the region could These Decisions reflect the Council’s continued use of so-called “smart sanctions”; strengthening or relaxing economic sanctions in response to the evolving political and humanitarian situation on the ground. Initial reports indicate that both Decisions have been met with cautious approval although serious concerns remain with respect to the political and humanitarian situation in both countries. The Decisions will be kept under review and renewed or amended, as appropriate, as the situation on the ground develops if the Council considers that its objectives have not been met. the conflict. ]]
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