This report prepared by Gaanashree
Wood, our Chief Syria Research officer, is the latest in out series on Syria.
When we call these “casualties” we are being euphemistic. These reports are of
numbers killed. They represent the latest complete figures we have available. At
a time when much of the Muslim world has just celebrated Nowraz, the Jewish
world is celebrating Passover and the Christians about to celebrate Easter it
seems untimely but it is ready so we send it. Full background figures can be
found on our Syria blog and we commend it to those of you who are specialists.
Many accuse us of inflating figures. We try to do the reverse. We are very
cautious with both government and opposition sources, trying to use only the
most reliable and even then, minimising their claims which are often grossly inflated.
We revise our methods and sources regularly and will do so again but we
recognise that these figures are best used for COMPARISON rather than read as
an accurate death toll.
We expect civilian death tolls to
fall in coming weeks because of the continuing increase in numbers of refugees
fleeing the fighting. We do not expect the Syrian civil war to be resolved
quickly in the absence of a negotiated settlement, and certainly not within the
year.
Monthly Casualties from July 2012 to February 2013
There seems to be little or no prospect of
a peaceful resolution of the Syrian civil war as the conflict enters its third
year. For now, the only silver lining is that civilian casualty figures have
“stabilised” and are no longer rising. This is because of the steady emptying
of the cities and countryside as the people flee the fighting to take refuge in
neighbouring states. Meanwhile, rebel figures are on a slight rise and
government figures seem to constantly fluctuate. To date, over 70, 000 have
been killed and over 2 million displaced within Syria.
The total number of Syrian refugees
officially passed 1 million in March. According to the UN, this would be
equivalent to the entire population of Birmingham, UK leaving.
Everyday there are thousands of Syrians fleeing across the border
into Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq and Turkey. Many of these
refugees are families who forced to live in confined tents or rooms with no
working toilets, electricity or running water. Most of the refugees are
destitute and struggle to support themselves. In the past weeks, there have
been horrific stories about Syrian women being forced to prostitute themselves
in order for their families to survive. With little or no income, prostitution
is the only way for them to survive. As the number of refugees increases so do
their desperation.
Andrew Harper, chief of the U.N. refugee
commission in Jordan stated that, "We have seen no evidence of
prostitution in the refugee camps, but we have heard rumors of it," said
"Given the vulnerability of women, the camp's growing population and the
lack of resources, I'm not surprised that some may opt for such actions."
Having been forced to abandon and flee
their homes with their families, refugees are now being forced to pay
exorbitant rents to landowners in Lebanon. Refugees are charged to pitch
their tents as Lebanese landowners cash in on the influx.
Syrian children have also been severely
affected by this conflict. With over a million refugees, almost half are
children under the age of 11. Many of them had to flee their homes and watched
their families get killed in front of them. According to Save the Children,
three quarters of children have experienced the death of a relative or close
friend.
The $1.5 billion pledged by the
international community towards humanitarian aid has failed to materialise. The
money was promised at a conference in Kuwait at the beginning of the
year. Officials say they barely received a fifth of the aid money. The money
reaching those who need it is very slim. Hospitals especially are overwhelmed
and desperately need medical supplies. Without the aid money, they are
struggling to help the sick and injured. Recently US Secretary of State John
Kerry promised $60 million aid.
The announcement was made at a “Friends of Syria”
meeting in Rome on 28th February. In his
announcement, Kerry said the extra aid was designed to "strengthen the
organizational capacity of the Syrian Opposition Coalition." How is this
money going to be spent? The Department of State provided a detailed breakdown
to Congress. It includes:
· $10
million for Middle East Partnership Initiative programming to support local
councils inside Syria.
· $30
million to create a SOC Support Program within the USAID Office of Transition
Initiatives. The OTI Syria program was established with a $5 million
reprogramming in late 2012.
· $7
million for USAID "repair and maintenance" programs to improve services
(may refer to opposition controlled areas and presumably includes water,
electricity, and/or public health)
· $6
million for State's Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations to support
the their training programs for the SOC and media programs with the opposition
· $7
million spread over various programs to support mine and unexploded ordinance
safety training, transitional justice programs, and counter-sectarianism
program
In light of the recent aid announcements,
Ahmed Moaz al-Khatib announced his resignation on 24thMarch stating
frustration over the inactivity of the international community and internal
struggles as reasons. Following his announcement, the Syrian National Coalition
was invited to assume the Syria’s seat in the Arab League in a 2-day
summit in Qatar, hosted by the Emir of Qatar.
The al-Assad government was “enraged” that
the Arab League offered seat to “bandits and thugs.” Moaz al-Khatib’s
resignation came days after US-based Islamist Ghassan Hitto was elected by the
opposition to be prime minister of an alternative administration that could
govern rebel-held areas from inside Syria.
However, Russia criticised the Arab League for offering Syria’s
official seat to the opposition coalition. In a statement, Moscow
described the move as "yet another anti-Syrian" step and illegal
under international law.
During his recent trip to Israel,
President Obama made it clear that the US will not hinder any countries’
decision to provide arms to Syrian rebel groups, following Britain’s and
France’s decision to urge fellow EU states to life the current arms embargo.
However, they faced strong resistance from Germany and other EU
states. Despite the prolonged violence, rising number of refugees and high
casualty rates, there is little support amongst the public for direct military
intervention or of providing “non-lethal support” to rebels. The decision to
lift the arms embargo will come under review again in May.
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