Thursday, August 16, 2012

Report on Syrian Issue - Casualties

(Edited on 16/08/12 to add some Syrian Shuhada totals)
 
- 15th August 2012 (evening)


This report is the latest in our series on Syria. Today’s report is in two parts:
1)       NCF Casualty estimates and
2)       All other Casualty estimates. The second half of this latter report is so extensive that we have only included the summary here under the title “Casualties in more detail”. The full background by region of Syria can be accessed on the NCF Syria blog on the following link: FULL SYRIA CASUALTY FIGURES

Casualties – The NCF casualty estimates

There are no independent sources for casualty estimates (other than the occasional news report). The casualty figures for “government dead” that the NCF uses in this report are based on those from the Syrian Observatory which are the only figures for government dead available. We hope you will use your discernment. The main value of these figures is as an indication of a trend. We give you our casualty estimates and then give you data from the other sources upon which they are based so that you can arrive at your own conclusions. The full background data upon which those other casualty estimates are based can be found on the NCF Syria blog on the link listed above.
THOSE KILLED IN THE PAST WEEK: The NCF estimates based on all available sources are as follows. Note we are listing the highest figure we have ever recorded for rebel dead, undoubtedly in part a consequence of the more ruthless tactics adopted in Aleppo and elsewhere by the government in the past week. The sheer scale of the onslaught on Aleppo has resulted in higher rebel casualties. Civilians in rebel held areas have fled, leaving rebel forces particularly vulnerable.
The remaining UN monitors in Aleppo were moved out of the city back to Damascus because of worsening violence.

CIVILIAN CASUALTIES
(Total LCC figure is used except where to do so produces an unrealistically low figure in the view of the NCF in which case the highest recorded figure is used, from which total the NCF rebel casualty figure is subtracted to give a net figure)
Date
Civilian casualties
Mon 06
59
Tues 07
101
Wed 08
113
Thu 09
51
Fri 10
103
Sat 11
13
Sun 12
29
TOTAL
469

REBEL CASUALTIES
(Rebel casualty figures are now being calculated on the highest reported figure for each day and area except in instances where that figure produces an unrealistically high figure in which case the lowest possible interpretation of the Sana figures is used)
Date
Rebel casualties
Mon 06
102
Tues 07
69
Wed 08
54
Thu 09
89
Fri 10
77
Sat 11
110
Sun 12
81
TOTAL
598

GOVERNMENT CASUALTIES
(The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights is the only organisation that has consistent figures for government casualties and we therefore use their figures for government dead)
Date
Government casualties
Mon 06
62
Tues 07
32
Wed 08
41
Thu 09
31
Fri 10
52
Sat 11
43
Sun 12
48
TOTAL
309


Weekly Casualty estimates – an overview
The number of civilian casualties has remained high during the past week. The number of government combatants killed has also remained high. The number for rebel dead is by far the highest number we have ever recorded:
Civilian dead:
469 dead this past week ending 13 August
491 dead the week ending 6 August
829 dead the week ending 30 July
848 dead the week ending 23 July
454 dead the week ending 16 July
462 dead the week ending 9 July
665 dead the week ending 2 July
373 dead the week ended 25 June 
350 dead the week ended 18 June 
105 dead the week ended 11 June 

Rebel dead:
598 dead this past week ending 13 August
379 dead the week ending 6 August
199 dead the week ending 30 July
211 dead the week ending 23 July
170 dead the week ending 16 July
70 dead the week ending 9 July
107 dead the week ending 2 July
77 dead the week ended 25 June
41 dead the week ended 18 June 
40 dead the week ended 11 June 

Government dead:
309 dead this past week ending 13 August
297 dead the week ending 6 August
228 dead the week ending 30 July
348 dead the week ending 23 July
237 dead the week ending 16 July
191 dead last week ending 9 July
256 dead the week ending 2 July
143 dead the week ended 25 June
53 dead the week ended 18 June 
92 dead the week ended 11 June 

Casualties in more detail
The numbers of reported casualties per source follows in a table in which the source is given and a day by day breakdown of totals. For more detail including a breakdown of these figures by region (which must be examined in order to understand the full basis on which NCF casualty estimates are calculated) go to the NCF Syria blog on this link.

TOTAL CIVILIAN CASUALTIES

SYRIAN OBSERVATORY FOR HUMAN RIGHTS
VIOLATIONS DOCUMENTING CENTRE
SYRIAN ARAB NEWS AGENCY
SYRIAN NETWORK FOR HUMAN RIGHTS
LOCAL COORDINATION COMMITTEES
SYRIAN SHUHADA
Mon 06
186
185
NA
224
161
212
Tues 07
65
131
NA

166
211
Wed 08
75
148
NA

167
178
Thu 09
52
125
NA

142
150
Fri 10
114
116
11
154
180

Sat 11
96
110
7

101

Sun 12
75
90
NA

110


TOTAL REBEL CASUALTIES

SYRIAN OBSERVATORY FOR HUMAN RIGHTS
VIOLATIONS DOCUMENTING CENTRE
SYRIAN ARAB NEWS AGENCY
SYRIAN NETWORK FOR HUMAN RIGHTS
LOCAL COORDINATION COMMITTEES
SYRIAN SHUHADA
Mon 06
28
30
74


28
Tues 07
31
32
48

4
32
Wed 08
16
17
46


17
Thu 09
24
27
67


26
Fri 10
24
22
63



Sat 11
23
12
110



Sun 12
31
13
22

45


TOTAL GOVERNMENT CASUALTIES

SYRIAN OBSERVATORY FOR HUMAN RIGHTS
VIOLATIONS DOCUMENTING CENTRE
SYRIAN ARAB NEWS AGENCY
SYRIAN NETWORK FOR HUMAN RIGHTS
LOCAL COORDINATION COMMITTEES
SYRIAN SHUHADA
Mon 06
62





Tues 07
32





Wed 08
41





Thu 09
31





Fri 10
52





Sat 11
43
1




Sun 12
48






Most organisations including the LCC figures do not distinguish between civilians and rebel soldiers (lumping both groups together as “martyrs”).

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