Monday, July 30, 2012

Report on Syria - Casualties/refugees


- 25th July 2012 (early afternoon)
This report is the latest in our series on Syria. Today’s report is in three parts:
1)       A special note from the NCF Team on the Syrian Refugees in Jordan
2)       NCF Casualty estimates and
3)       All other Casualty estimates. The second half of this latter report is so extensive that we have only included the summary here under the title “Casualties in more detail”. The full background by region of Syria can be accessed on the NCF Syria blog  on the following link:
FULL SYRIA CASUALTY FIGURES


Special note on Syrian refugees in Jordan


The NCF met HE Mr Mazen Kemal Homoud, Ambassador of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan to the UK, to discuss the refugee question. The Ambassador informed the NCF that only 30,000 of the 130,000 Syrian refugees in Jordan to date had been registered. Most are staying with Jordanian families rather than in the camps. “We are opening one large new camp, to add to the existing camp which caters for 30,000.” Jordan’s Prime Minister, Fayez Tarawneh, was up at the existing campsite on Monday. William Hague visited there with his Jordanian counterpart, Nasser Judah. Prince Faisal was there last weekend. Prince Rashid, the head of the NGO that helps the camps was there. The USA is giving $100 million to help the Syrian refugees in Jordan. The UK is giving £17 million. The Hashemite Kingdom takes the ongoing Syrian refugee crisis as its first priority. The new camp is far larger than the existing camp so that it can cater for the increasing flood of refugees.



Casualties – The NCF casualty estimates

Again, we have delayed the publication of this report to get all information available. And again, we acknowledge the inaccuracy of much of the data here. We are using all available sources but unfortunately the government no longer reports casualty figures, there are no independent sources (other than the occasional news report) and we therefore have to rely solely on opposition sources. We note that rebel casualties are therefore under-reported and government / civilian casualties probably over reported. We hope you will use your discernment. The main value of these figures is as an indication of a trend. We are going to give you our casualty estimates and then give you data from the other sources upon which they are based so that you can arrive at your own conclusions. The full background data upon which those other casualty estimates are based can be found
on the NCF Syria blog on the link listed above. The data is too copious to include in this report.

Those killed in the past week

he NCF estimates based on all available sources are as follows. NCF note – we are doing our very best to give you the most accurate estimate available. We ourselves recognise that these figures may vary widely from the actual truth. There are no reliable figures available, largely because of the chaos within Syria:

(For rebel casualties we take the highest available figure. Government casualty figures continue to be difficult to find and the Syrian Observatory have stopped doing a breakdown of the figures)

CIVILIAN CASUALTIES
(LCC figure – highest rebel casualty figure)

Date
Civilian casualties
Mon 16
       69
Tue 17
62
Wed 18
157
Thu 19
154
Fri 20
191
Sat 21
117
Sun 22
98
TOTAL
848


REBEL CASUALTIES
(Rebel casualty figures seem unrealistically low and as such the NCF has chosen the highest available figures)

Date
Rebel casualties
Mon 16
28
Tue 17
20
Wed 18
31
Thu 19
63
Fri 20
24
Sat 21
23
Sun 22
22
TOTAL
211


GOVERNMENT CASUALTIES
(Though massively under-reported the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights is the only organisation that has consistent figures for government casualties.)

Date
Government casualties
Mon 16
41
Tue 17
29
Wed 18
65
Thu 19
98
Fri 20
38
Sat 21
43
Sun 22
34
TOTAL
348




Weekly Casualty estimates


The number of civilian casualties has doubled during the past week. Regardless of which, the number of combatants killed has increased massively:

Civilian dead:

848 dead this past week ending 23 July
454 dead last week ending 16 July
462 dead the week ending 9 July
665 dead the week ending 2 July
373 dead the week ended 25 June
350 dead the week ended 18 June
105 dead the week ended 11 June


Rebel dead:

211 dead this past week ending 23 July
170 dead last week ending 16 July
70 dead the week ending 9 July
107 dead the week ending 2 July
77 dead the week ended 25 June
41 dead the week ended 18 June
40 dead the week ended 11 June

Government dead:


348 dead this past week ending 23 July
237 dead this past week ending 16 July
191 dead last week ending 9 July
256 dead the week ending 2 July
143 dead the week ended 25 June
53 dead the week ended 18 June
92 dead the week ended 11 June 





CASUALTIES IN MORE DETAIL
The numbers of reported casualties follows in a table in which the source is given and a day by day breakdown of totals. For more detail including a breakdown of these figures by region go to the NCF Syria blog on this link.




TOTAL CIVILIAN CASUALTIES



SYRIAN OBSERVATORY FOR HUMAN RIGHTS
VIOLATIONS DOCUMENTING CENTRE
SYRIAN ARAB NEWS AGENCY
SYRIAN NETWORK FOR HUMAN RIGHTS
LOCAL COORDINATION COMMITTEES
SYRIAN SHUHADA
Mon 16
69
85
-
88
97
108
Tue 17
41
71
-
96
82
94
Wed 18
134
169
-
194
188
270
Thu 19
105
188
-
204
217
247
Fri 20
126
230
-
248
215
238
Sat 21
75
125
2
150
140
158
Sun 22
79
99
-
114
120
132




TOTAL REBEL CASUALTIES



SYRIAN OBSERVATORY FOR HUMAN RIGHTS
VIOLATIONS DOCUMENTING CENTRE
SYRIAN ARAB NEWS AGENCY
SYRIAN NETWORK FOR HUMAN RIGHTS
LOCAL COORDINATION COMMITTEES
SYRIAN SHUHADA
Mon 16
28
23
-
-
-
6
Tue 17
20
16
-
-
-
7
Wed 18
31
16
-
-
-
3
Thu 19
63
21
-
-
-
1
Fri 20
21
24
-
-
-
8
Sat 21
18
20
-
-
-
23
Sun 22
22
11
7
-
-
12



TOTAL GOVERNMENT CASUALTIES



SYRIAN OBSERVATORY FOR HUMAN RIGHTS
VIOLATIONS DOCUMENTING CENTRE
SYRIAN ARAB NEWS AGENCY
SYRIAN NETWORK FOR HUMAN RIGHTS
LOCAL COORDINATION COMMITTEES
SYRIAN SHUHADA
Mon 16
41
1
-
-
-
-
Tue 17
29
1
-
-
-
-
Wed 18
65
-
1
-
-
-
Thu 19
98
-
3
-
-
-
Fri 20
38
-
-
-
-
-
Sat 21
43
2
-
-
-
-
Sun 22
34
3
-
-
-
-


SANA has stopped reporting the numbers of government forces killed (and in any case its website has been taken down – presumably by cyber attack).

The LCC figures do not distinguish between civilians and rebel soldiers (lumping both groups together as “martyrs”). As the LCC is a local organisation on the ground in Syria, we have made a decision that for the present we will use their figures for NCF estimates of civilian dead (but first deducting our totals for rebel fighters killed).

 




CIVILIAN CASUALTIES
(LCC figure – highest rebel casualty figure)

Date
Civilian casualties
Mon 16
       69
Tue 17
62
Wed 18
157
Thu 19
154
Fri 20
191
Sat 21
117
Sun 22
98
TOTAL
848


REBEL CASUALTIES
(Rebel casualty figures seem unrealistically low and as such the NCF has chosen the highest available figures)

Date
Rebel casualties
Mon 16
28
Tue 17
20
Wed 18
31
Thu 19
63
Fri 20
24
Sat 21
23
Sun 22
22
TOTAL
211


GOVERNMENT CASUALTIES
(Though massively under-reported the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights is the only organisation that has consistent figures for government casualties.)

Date
Government casualties
Mon 16
41
Tue 17
29
Wed 18
65
Thu 19
98
Fri 20
38
Sat 21
43
Sun 22
34
TOTAL
348


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