Casualty Estimates

 This report is the latest in our series on Syria. Today’s report is in two parts:

1)      NCF Casualty estimates and

2)       All other Casualty estimates. The second half of this latter report is so extensive that we have only included the summary here under the title “Casualties in more detail”. The full background by region of Syria can be accessed on the NCF website on the following links:

Full civilian casualty lists

Full rebel casualty lists

Full government casualty lists (only limited data available)

Casualties- NCF estimates

We have delayed the release of this report until this afternoon in order to include comprehensive casualty reports for the past week. We are releasing our weekly figures today (Tuesday afternoon) because it gives us time to analyse the data coming in over the weekend. We are going to give you our casualty estimates and then give you data from the other sources upon which they are based so that you can arrive at your own conclusions. The full background data upon which those other casualty estimates are based can be found on the news section of the NCF website on the links listed above. The data is too copious to include in this report.

Those killed in the past week

The NCF estimates based on all available sources are as follows. NCF note – we are doing our very best to give you the most accurate estimate available. We ourselves recognise that these figures may vary widely from the actual truth. There are no reliable figures available, largely because of the chaos within Syria:

CIVILIAN CASUALTIES

(The LCC figure – minus the highest available rebel casualty figure)

Date	Civilian casualties
02/07	98
03/07	60
04/07	61
05/07	62
06/07	82
07/07	52
08/07	47
TOTAL	462

REBEL CASUALTIES

(Rebel casualty figures seem unrealistically low and as such the NCF has chosen the highest available figures for each day)

Date	Rebel casualties
02/07	9
03/07	11
04/07	9
05/07	7
06/07	7
07/07	14
08/07	13
TOTAL	70

GOVERNMENT CASUALTIES

(The NCF is aware that government casualties are under-reported. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights is the only organisation that has remotely consistent figures for government casualties and we have used their figures though even SOHR stopped publishing casualty figures by region on Friday 29th – note that the government itself has stopped publishing its own casualty figures on SANA, issuing its last casualty figure for government dead on 26^th June). The following figures must therefore be regarded with caution.

Date	Government casualties
02/07	25
03/07	25
04/07	34
05/07	24
06/07	26
07/07	21
08/07	36
TOTAL	191

Weekly Casualty estimates

The number of casualties in all categories has decreased slightly during the past week

Civilian dead:

462 dead this past week ending 9 July

665 dead last week ending 2 July

373 dead the week ended 25 June  

350 dead the week ended 18 June 

105 dead the week ended 11 June 

Rebel dead:

70 dead this past week ending 9 July

107 dead last week ending 2 July

77 dead the week ended 25 June

41 dead the week ended 18 June 

40 dead the week ended 11 June 

Government dead:

191 dead this past week ending 9 July

256 dead last week ending 2 July

143 dead the week ended 25 June

53 dead the week ended 18 June 

92 dead the week ended 11 June 

And Another Perspective

The actual figures are, as we have stated, impossible to know and could be higher or equally could be lower than the above figures which represent the best calculation we can make from the available data. We have been examining the LCC figures in particular as there is a debate within the LCC about the accuracy of their figures. Some say there should first be a provisional figure and then a confirmed figure later because many who seem dead (because they are either severely injured or have been taken into custody) may turn up later having survived. Some suggest the LCC figures which are our main benchmark could be reduced by 15% to produce a more accurate figure. They have a point but for the moment we will continue to use LCC figures.

Casualties in more detail

The numbers of reported casualties follows in a table in which the source is given and a day by day breakdown of totals. For more detail including a breakdown of these figures by region go to the news section of our website on the links at the top of this report.

TOTAL CIVILIAN CASUALTIES

	SYRIAN OBSERVATORY FOR HUMAN RIGHTS	VIOLATIONS DOCUMENTING CENTRE	SYRIAN ARAB NEWS AGENCY	SYRIAN NETWORK FOR HUMAN RIGHTS	LOCAL COORDINATION COMMITTEES	SYRIAN SHUHADA
02/07	64	51		104	107	94
03/07	52	72		70	71	74
04/07	52	77		No list	70	79
05/07	63	68		72	69	79
06/07	63	75		95	89	88
07/07	42	53		67	66	61
08/07	53	50		58	60

TOTAL REBEL CASUALTIES

	SYRIAN OBSERVATORY FOR HUMAN RIGHTS	VIOLATIONS DOCUMENTING CENTRE	SYRIAN ARAB NEWS AGENCY	SYRIAN NETWORK FOR HUMAN RIGHTS	LOCAL COORDINATION COMMITTEES	SYRIAN SHUHADA
02/07	9	7				2
03/07	7	11				4
04/07	9	5				1
05/07	3	2				7
06/07	7	7				2
07/07	13	14				4
08/07	13	4

TOTAL GOVERNMENT CASUALTIES

	SYRIAN OBSERVATORY FOR HUMAN RIGHTS	VIOLATIONS DOCUMENTING CENTRE	SYRIAN ARAB NEWS AGENCY	SYRIAN NETWORK FOR HUMAN RIGHTS	LOCAL COORDINATION COMMITTEES	SYRIAN SHUHADA
02/07	25
03/07	25
04/07	34
05/07	24
06/07	26
07/07	21
08/07	36

SANA has stopped reporting the numbers of government forces killed.

The LCC figures do not distinguish between civilians and rebel soldiers (lumping both groups together as “martyrs”). As the LCC is a local organisation on the ground in Syria, we have made a decision that for the present we will use their figures for NCF estimates of civilian dead (but first deducting our totals for rebel fighters killed).