Thursday, June 16, 2011

The relative strength of the various opposition groups

Most demonstrators are ordinary citizens, not members of this or that political movement. This applies most particularly to younger demonstrators. Of those who are politically active and that do have an allegiance to one or other strand of the opposition, the following is a crude analysis of allegiance. It is no more than an estimate, given the fact that there is no possible way to measure allegiances accurately:

    1. Youth movement (various loose allegiances): 16%
    2. Kurdish Democratic Party of Syria (two factions):  15%
    3. All other Kurdish political parties: 15%
    4. Rifaat Al Assad (UNDA): 15%
    5. Syrian Muslim Brotherhood: 14% (the MB has grown weaker in recent years)
    6. Various liberal independents (Damascus Declaration etc): 10%
    7. Traditional parties (e.g. Communists / socialists): 10%
    8. Other groups (e.g. Azadi, Salvation Front etc): 5%

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