Syria and Lebanon

Syrian Opposition Conference(s) in Brussels

2011-12-14T11:40:00.003Z

“Syria: the way forward” was the title of a conference held by the European Conservatives and Reformists Group in the EU on the 8^th of December 2011. In the rooms of the European Parliament, representatives of different Syrian opposition groups met together to find common ground in facing the worsening of the Syrian scenario. After an opening speech by UK Member of the European Parliament Sajjad Karim and a brief update of the situation in the field made by Mathieu Hermans (IKV Pax Christi), the representatives made their remarks, answering also questions from the public. The speakers were: Anwar Yussef (Kurdish Democratic Party), Dr Halla Diab (Organization for Democracy and Freedom in Syria), Farouk Masara (National Democratic Council), Ribal Al Assad (Organization for Democracy and Freedom in Syria), Lokman Deli (Independent), Hassan Masri Haddad (National Democratic Council), Sherko Zein Aloosh (Independent), Kawa Yousef (Kurdish Youth Movement). During the meeting, several appeals for unity among the opposition factions were made by the speakers. Despite the fact that the conference aimed at bridging the gaps among the groups of the Syrian opposition front, no member of the Syrian National Council was present. The SNC preferred to participate in another conference about Syria affairs held on the day before by the Socialist and Democrats Group of the European Parliament(“Syria at the crossroads” on December 7^th).

FOR A VIDEO LINK CLICK HERE

Formation of Syrian National Democratic Council

2011-11-15T12:50:00.003Z

A conference regarding the Syrian uprising was held in Paris this weekend consequently forming a new unified voice for the Syrian opposition.

The central committee for the National Democratic Council of Syria was appointed on Sunday the 13th of November following a vote among the Syrian attendee's at the conference.

The process, strictly following the single transferrable vote method of proportional representation, appointed the following members to the committe;

Abdel Nasser Arab - UNDA

Abdulbaki Kulo - Kurdish Independent

Anwar Yussef - KDP

Farouk Masara - Opposition Ba'ath Party

Hassan Masri Haddad - Independent

Line Al Khayer - Syrian Women's Party

Mohamed Al Ajlani - UNDA

Mohamed Al Dik - Independent

Rifaat Al Assad - UNDA

Syrian Kurds Unite

2011-11-02T12:20:00.004Z

On the 26th of October, the north eastern city of Qamishli in Syria saw it's first meeting of the Kurdish National Council.

252 Kurd's, belonging to youth groups, poitical movements and parties as well as individual activists, gathered and successfully created a united front with the intention of partaking in the national opposition's efforts toward achieving a democratic Syria.

The community have collectively agreed a number of recommendations they will present to the National opposition as a unified voice. Recommendations include constitutional rights relating to; the essential recognition of the Kurd population in Syria, freedom of religious practices, security of minorty groups ie. the Caldo-Assyrians and the fundamental right of equality for all.

With the Kurdish population being one of Syria's indigenious groups, such constitutional amendments are essential and long over-due, a point the al-Assad regime entirely disregards having only granted a vague form of citizenship to the Hasaka Kurds in April of this year.

The council recognisesd the achievements and importance of the Kurd youth groups who will join theKurdish union in their aspiration to achieve Syrian democracy through the combined voice of the Syrian opposition.

"Secular" opposition to rival SNC is formed in Paris

2011-10-18T11:04:00.001Z

On September 17th, a new Syrian opposition group emerged. The Coalition of Secular and Democratic Syrians (CFLD), formed in Paris, was created with the explicit aim of countering the Syrian National Council’s Islamist composition. This is particularly problematic given the West’s recent show of support for the SNC despite it being unrepresentative of the Syrian opposition in general. In contrast to the very strong Islamist/Brotherhood bias of the SNC, the new secular coalition, also referred to as the Syrian Coalition of Secular and Democratic Forces (CSDF), is made up of Christian, Muslim, Kurd and Arab activists all united behind the idea of a secular and democratic Syria.

This is by no means an anti-religious coalition, but instead one that is concerned about the Syrian uprising being hijacked by Islamists, and particularly by the Muslim Brotherhood. As one of its members Sheikh Ma’shooq al-Khaznawi told France 24: “If we want Syria to enjoy a prosperous future, there must be a separation between religion and state. We do not have a problem with God and the Prophet and the Koran, but with people who are the self-appointed spokesmen of God.”

More details on their general philosophy can be found on the website of one of the organisers of the conference in Paris in which the Coalition was formed, and on the Coalition's facebook page.

EU Hails The Formation of the SNC

2011-10-13T11:16:00.000Z

The Syrian National Council, formed inIstanbul on 2^nd October, has moved forward in its bid to seekinternational recognition. The EU’s foreign ministers have agreed astatement which welcomes the formation of the SNC. Thestatement on 10^th October called the creation of the body, “apositive step forward," and condemned the "brutal repression led bythe Syrian regime against its population". This comes a day after Syriathreatened to take “tough measures” against any country that recognised theCouncil.

However, the words of French ForeignMinister Alain Juppe, reflect the EU’s cautious approach to the newly formedSyrian body. France was the first EU country to recognise the Libyan interimcouncil, but Juppe said that the Syrian body did not “have the same structure.”He continued, “we are not at the stage of recognition. I believe we have to getto know them better and get a better idea of their intentions.” Although thestatement stopped short of formally recognising the Council as the officialopposition this still provides the SNC with a level of international supportand legitimacy.

The new diaspora

2011-10-04T11:20:00.004Z

Lise Douchette was interviewing the US Ambassador to Syria Giles Ford on the world service last night Sept 4th. She said that the diaspora seemed to be marked out even in this country. The secret police were even aware of the meetings we had had. Their families were visited by the police in Damascus. Last weekend someone was very concerned that even meeting in this house, his family got the knock on the door in Syria.

Addounia TV: Unrest happening in ‘fake cities’

2011-09-30T15:19:00.001Z

A number of media outlets have reported that a documentary has been recently broadcast on Syrian news channel Addounia TV which claims that the unrest in the country is not actually happening. The documentary alleges that al-Jazeera news had filmed the footage in replica cities built in Qatar using filmmakers and actors, with the aim of creating a false impression of what is happening in Syria. The documentary asserts that movie-set versions of Syrian cities and public squares have been constructed with the help of American and French directors, and that a similar illusion was created for the Libyan conflict. The documentary reported that “The world and the Libyans were deceived by those replicas that Tripoli fell. With those replicas, Al Jazeera will continue media fabrication and cinematic tricks by shooting scenes of big defections from the Arab Syrian Army and shooting scenes of clashes between some elements who claim being defectors and elements from the regime.” Addounia TV is owned by Mohamed Hamsho, the brother-in-law to Maher al-Assad, who is the commander of Syria’s Republican Guard and brother to the Syrian president.

If the documentary’s accusations are true, then surely the Syrian government would allow foreign journalists into Syria in order to prove that the real cities are peaceful, and that the unrest is confined to ‘fake’ Qatari film sets. Seeing as the government has not taken such a step, the logical conclusion is that Addounia TV, rather than al-Jazeera, is the one who is guilty of ‘media fabrication’.

Further Crackdown in Syria

2011-09-22T15:46:00.002Z

It has been reported today that the Syrian military has maintained its military crackdown against the opponents of President Assad. Five deaths have been reported in Homs, whilst there has been one death in both Hama and Rastan. One activist group, the Local Coordination Committee, has announced that students have been facing the brunt of the heavy security presence in Damascus; a girl’s school in Damascus was raided by security forces whilst dozens of students in the southern town of Jassem were rounded up following a demonstration. Also on Tuesday, Syrian state media has announced that “armed terrorist groups” have killed five security personnel and wounded 17 others in an ambush on a military convoy in Daraa province.
Exact casualty figures are difficult to determine due to the expulsion of foreign journalists from Syria by the government.

Syrian National Council unveiled in Turkey

2011-09-16T14:07:00.004Z

Members of Syrian opposition groups have announced at a meeting in Turkey that they have selected 140 people to form a “national council” to give a public face to the protests against President Assad. Furthermore the council will attempt to co-ordinate the factionalised opposition in order to intensify the pressure on the government. Only 70 names out of the list of 140 were announced publically at the meeting, possibly because the unnamed individuals currently reside in Syria and therefore the publicity could be a threat to their security. The list is composed of revolutionary youths, political activists and technocrats, whilst ethnic and religious minorities have reportedly also been represented. Yaser Tabbara, a Syrian-American attorney and a member of the council, has noted that “the council will be seeking to fill the vacuum identified by the international community, as an alternative to Assad's regime and represent the position of the Syrian revolution in an efficient and credible way.” The opposition has had unofficial contact with foreign governments, and one of the aims of the formation of the council is that meetings with Arab and Western governments will follow, as well as consultations with the UN and the Arab League.

The Syrian opposition has clearly attempted to mimic the activities of the Libyan opposition, who declared the formation of the National Transitional Council in the eastern Libyan city of Al Bayda in late February. The question is how far does the Syrian National Council wish to follow in the footsteps of the Libyan rebels: will they engage in an armed rebellion, backed by Western military support? That possibility may exist, but it is still much too early to tell.

False Hope

2011-09-14T11:50:00.001Z

Following a meeting with British Prime Minister David Cameron on Monday, President Medvedev of Russia has announced that his government will oppose any UN sanctions against the Syrian government. The Russian ambassador to the UN has already used his veto to block several resolutions earlier in the crisis, including a report on Iranian arm sales to Syria as well as two drafts of a Franco-British attempt to condemn the use of force by the Assad administration. Western powers have already proposed sanctions such as an arms embargo and a ban on the import of Syrian petroleum in order to pressurize the Syrian government to ease its military crackdown. Given that Russian firms are Syria’s main source of weaponry, and the close relations between Russia and the Syrian oil industry, it is clear that such sanctions would be detrimental to Russian interests. However, according to reports published late last week, it appeared as if the tone of Russian rhetoric had changed; following diplomatic pressure from Western powers, as well as a visit from a delegation of the Syrian opposition to Moscow, President Medvedev condemned the Syrian government’s use of violence and hinted at the possibility of supporting a new Security Council resolution on Syria. Such hopes were dashed following Monday’s meeting with Cameron when President Medvedev clarified his opposition to existing EU sanctions as well as the possibility of introducing further UN sanctions; whilst Western powers have been preparing a resolution calling for sanctions against the Syrian regime, it was revealed yesterday that Russia was preparing its own rival draft resolution which simply calls on the government and opposition to open direct talks. If Russia were to reduce its support for the Assad regime, it would prove hazardous for the Syrian government given its reliance on Russia for military, diplomatic and economic support. Speculation of such a shift in Russian foreign policy appears to be, at least for the time being, false hope.

EU oil ban

2011-09-02T16:06:00.001Z

Two weeks after Secretary Clinton called on countries to step up restrictions on oil imports from Syria, the EU has adopted a ban on crude oil imports. The ban covers the purchase, import and transport of all Syrian oil products and is predicted to cost the regime millions of pounds each day.

Oil accounts for roughly 25% of Syria's income and the EU is the recipient of 95% of its oil exports. Unified international pressure is still unlikely however as Russia, a permanent member of the UN Security Council continues to say it will veto any action by the UNSC.

The UK reportedly had concerns about the sanctions negative effect on the local population. The Syrian economy is in dire straits, a situation which will only be heightened by the sanctions.

a longer term perspective

2011-09-02T15:41:00.002Z

This is a really interesting piece that looks at the prospect for long term conflict in Syria through the lens of the regional Sunni Shi'a conflict, led by Saudi Arabia and Iran.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/28/opinion/sunday/the-dangers-lurking-in-the-arab-spring.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all

Amnesty International Report

2011-09-01T16:03:00.001Z

The most recent Amnesty International Report on Syria has focused on the issue of detention. It concludes that:

‘The prevailing situation in Syria has been one in which widespread torture and other ill-treatment are reported in Syria’s interrogation and detention centres and members of security forces effectively benefit from immunity from prosecution... Furthermore, what Amnesty International has documented is sufficient to conclude that there is a pattern of deaths in custody of suspected opponents of the regime occurring in circumstances that suggest that torture and other ill-treatment, including possibly denial of medical care, have been factors in the deaths.’

The report recounts individual stories of detention and torture adding to the growing force of the human rights criticism against the Syrian Government. Amnesty International supports calls for the International Criminal Court to investigate possible crimes against humanity.

http://www.amnesty.org/en/library/asset/MDE24/035/2011/en/e4ed18bf-25c6-4eba-af40-2995299c4eb1/mde240352011en.pdf

Iran acknowledges protesters 'legitimate demands'

2011-08-31T16:18:00.002Z

The Foreign Minister of Syria’s closest ally Iran has said that the "government should answer to the demands of its people". It was an unexpected move by Iran causing some commentators to suggest that the Syrian Government is now in dire straits, having lost the support of its closest ally. The comments did not, however, call for President Assad to step down. The remarks, whilst being a major change in public discourse, are not life threatening given the Syrian Government’s own public commitment to introduce reforms.

Where is Gaddafi?

2011-08-24T14:11:00.001Z

Rebels yesterday stormed Gaddafi’s Bab al-Aziziya compound in Tripoli. Whilst it seems their victory is near complete the question remains: where is Gaddafi and what are his plans? Is he in a position to continue to fight or is he simply on the run? World leaders, NATO and the rebels have all stated that they have no idea where Gaddafi currently is. South Africa has denied helping him flee the country and the US department of defence has confirmed that they believe he is still in Libya.

In a recent audio message Gaddafi pledged ‘martyrdom or victory’ and his son Saif Gaddafi said that the situation is Tripoli was ‘a trap’, presumably to lure rebels into a false sense of victory. Another possibility is that he may have gone to his birthplace of Sirte, which has been a stronghold of loyalists, or to his ancestral home of Sabha in the south of Libya.

The persistence of fighting in towns outside Tripoli, as well as the presence of pro-Gaddafi snipers on the streets of Tripoli, suggest that the fighting is not yet over. A spokesman for Gaddafi said loyalists were capable of carrying on fighting ‘not just for days or weeks, but for years’ and in his broadcast message Gaddafi called for ‘youth, seniors, women, men and armed committees’ to ‘attack Tripoli and comb the areas and eradicate the traitors and rats’. In response to the concerns of prolonged violence world leaders have called on Gaddafi to stop fighting and admit defeat.

The fall of Gaddafi could have consequences around the region, particularly for countries like Syria where the regime is teetering on the edge.

Assad warns against intervention

2011-08-22T11:36:00.000Z

In an interview on Syrian national television on Sunday night President Assad laid out his position on the current situation in Syria. In his view the regime is in no danger of falling to the protests and the security institutions continue to have a legitimate role to play in maintaining security. He expressed defiance towards calls for him to step aside accusing the ‘colonial powers’ of seeking to weaken Syria rather than give it space to reform and warned that ‘any action against Syria will have huge consequences that they [foreign countries] can never tolerate’.

Finally, he again raised the question of political reform. He suggested that a law on forming political parties would be issued next week and that elections for the parliament could be held in February 2012. The question remains as to whether such reforms will have any impact on the protests in Syria. Spurred on by international condemnation of the Syrian regime, moves towards reform are unlikely to appease protesters who have heard talk of reform before but not seen it materialise.

UN humanitarian mission to visit Syria

2011-08-19T13:43:00.002Z

In a spate of international activity over Syria, the US, Canada, France, Germany, Britain and the EU have all called for the President Assad to step down. Simultaneously, Syria has agreed to allow a team from the UN's Office for the Co-ordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) access to Syria to verify claims that all army operations against protesters have ended and to report on the human rights situation in the country. This comes at the same time as the UN released a report on the human rights situation in Syria recommending to the UN Security Council (UNSC) that members of the Syrian regime be referred to the International Criminal Court.

On Thursday, the coordinated call by a number of western governments for Assad to stand down came with increased sanctions and a commitment to draft a UNSC sanctions resolution on Syria. President Obama said ‘the future of Syria must be determined by its people, but President Bashar al-Assad is standing in their way.’ With a US official noting ‘we lost patience with him… Assad has a perfect record of empty promises.’ Russia meanwhile has rejected the calls for Assad to stand down, instead suggesting that countries should be helping the regime implement its programme of reforms. Russia has threatened to veto any UNSC resolution that opens the door to international intervention in Syria.

The UN humanitarian mission is due to arrive in Syria on Saturday and will spend four days touring areas where there has been reported violence. This important development will hopefully contribute to a clearer picture of what is happening on the ground in Syria. International media are prohibited from entering Syria and reporting on the situation has been plagued by an inability to confirm rumours and reports. The UN humanitarian chief said Damascus had pledged that the mission "will have full access to where we want to go". The mission comes after UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon spoke to President Assad by telephone on Wednesday. During the call President Assad claimed that all army operations against protesters had ended.

All these events have encouraged protesters on the ground. One veteran dissident in Damascus said ‘I am jubilant. This came at the right time for the street’. In contrast, Syria's ambassador to the UN says the US is waging a "diplomatic and humanitarian war" against his country. As international pressure mounts, it is still difficult to see how and when this stand off will end.

The future of Iranian support for Syria

2011-08-17T13:39:00.001Z

Reports of recent months suggest that Tehran is playing a large role in shaping and supporting the current crack down on protesters by the Syrian regime. This leads to numerous important questions such as: just how much support is Iran providing - particularly if support will limit the impact of sanctions; and how strong is the Iranian commitment to Assad - will they jump ship when it looks certain that Assad will go or will they be prepared to fight side by side with the Syrian regime if the situation escalates?

In recent months there have been reports of security forces in Syria being heard speaking Farsi, rumours that Iran has agreed to fund a military base in Latakia through which Iranian military hardware could be transferred to Syria (which Iran has denied), and reports from a former Syrian security officer that he knew of Iranian troops and snipers on the ground in Syria. Such reports are leading many to suggest that Syria is basing its response to the protesters on Iranian advice – most noting that the Iranian regime has experience in quelling protests. The Asia Times Online has reported speaking with an Iranian intelligence source who admitted Iran has provided support in the fields of psychological warfare and information management but denied Iran was exporting riot control techniques. He also indicated, however, that some Iranian officials felt a ‘deep unease’ about the methods being employed in Syria.

Syria is a key ally for Iran in the region, forming an integral part of what is often called the ‘axis of resistance’ aimed challenging the role of the US and Israel in the region. An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman this week reiterated support for the regime saying that Iran sees no justification for any Western intervention in the internal affairs of Syria. There is no doubt that Iran is supporting the Assad regime, but one must ask, how far this support will extend if the situation escalates. Some Iranian foreign policy experts have already started questioning whether Iran is setting itself up for a fall being so closely aligned to the Assad regime. Unconditional support risks Iran being left out in the cold if the Assad regime falls.

Naval attack on Latakia

2011-08-15T11:12:00.003Z

In what represents a significant escalation in firepower, the Syrian government has deployed the navy to attack the port town of Latakia. Residents and human rights groups are reporting that 27 people have been killed as forces attacked by land and sea. The land assault began on Saturday and on Sunday Syrian naval forces fired shells on the city. Journalists have not been able to independently verify the reports because of restrictions on international journalists reporting in Syria.

Local sources say that the attack on Latakia continues today while at the same time Syrian troops and tanks are entering several towns in Homs province. Latakia has been home to large anti-government protests with one resident suggesting that around 20,000 people have been rallying daily.

Clinton calls for wider sanctions of Syria

2011-08-12T14:43:00.001Z

US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton yesterday called on European countries as well as India and China to step up their pressure on the Syrian regime. She said ‘what we really need to do to put the pressure on Assad is to sanction the oil and gas industry.’ Not being a major economic partner of Syria, the US has been working to drum up international support for sanctions against Syria’s oil and gas sector. The sectors provide as much as a third of the regime’s revenues. It is reported that Washington is also encouraging energy companies trading with Syria to cease. Clinton said Washington had been "very clear" in its statements about Assad's loss of legitimacy but the "real trick" was to convince Syria’s trading partners to do more.

Defence Minister 'More Than Alive'

2011-08-10T11:31:00.001Z

ian_black (twitter) ali habib, sacked syrian defence minister is "more than alive" according to damascus source who saw him this morning

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/post/syrian-defense-minister-killed/2011/03/29/gIQAbyzx4I_blog.html

http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=233057

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4106489,00.html

The rumours that circulated yesterday, from the mouths of websites such as the Washington Post, have been proven to be false. The Defence Minister General Ali Habib's reported sacking the day before marks one of the biggest shake ups of the al-Assad government since the uprising began earlier this year. The next day, rumours regarding his assassination at the hands of President Assad emerged from various sources.

Habib emerged on television through the Syrian Arab News Agency to deny reports that he was dead. He also confirmed the reports that he stepped down as a result of ill health.

Ali Habib has been replaced by General Daoud Rajha as Defence Minister. These events remind us/me of the importance to check the credibility of sources before reporting yet another dramatic story regarding Syria.

http://www.sana.sy/eng/337/2011/08/09/363176.htm

The Elite Situation

2011-08-09T14:49:00.000Z

It is undeniable that the Syrian elite play some role in the production of keeping the al-Assad family in government. Their position is even more integral in keeping the government in power during a time of crisis, where dozens of key figures and countries have emerged to criticise the bloodshed in Bashar's campaign against Syria.

As described by Anthony Shadid for the New York Times (7th August 2011), there are now indications that the business elite is bracing and preparing itself for the downfall of the Assad government. Shadid describes the elite as 'one of the most important pillars of the Syrian leadership, notably during th Islamist revolt in 1982.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/08/world/middleeast/08syria.html?pagewanted=2&ref=middleeast

Shadid further goes on to talk about the military in Syria. Unlike in Egypt, where the military refused to fire on civilians, and in Libya, where there were top level defections in the military, in Syria, the body remains intact, cohesive and loyal. With some 70% of the composition being Alawite, the military has provided to be particularly difficult to split from the Assad government.

An Associated Press article for Fox News (4th August 2011) goes on to say why this is so. It describes that Syria is greatly contrasting to the events that occured in Libya and Egypt. In Libya, for example, there were 'tribal divisions and longstanding resentment towards Gaddafi', whilst in Egypt, the military was largely made of conscripts who were disinclined to fight their own people.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/08/04/us-struggles-to-drive-wedge-in-syrias-military-elite/

In contrast, the army in Syria is elite and Alawite, the sect to which al-Assad belongs, providing less divide and more stability or loyalty in comparison to their parallels in Libya or Egypt. In general, they are less prone to defection, which may be a reason for the survival of the al-Assad government thus far.

Sami Moubayed's article for Gulf News (2nd August 2011) further analysed why the business elites have not yet turned against the al-Assad government. It describes that the cities of Damascus and Aleppo are in fact 'operating' normally. Aleppo has been immune from the economic crisis and has not suffered problems like the rest of Syria largely due to its large trading relationship with Turkey. Aleppo has also learnt from its mistake of supporting the Muslim Brotherhood in 1982, which has apparently led to their dormant business elite. Furthermore, Moubayed states that the business elite in Damascus are in fact no longer in Damascus, but in the suburbs surrounding the city.

http://gulfnews.com/opinions/columnists/why-damascus-aleppo-are-silent-for-now-1.845867

Overall, Moubayed thinks that the business elite remain allied to the Syrian government because of their political, social and economic interests. 'Both cities can make or break any political movement - but rarely have they been part of anything that threatens stability or their commercial interests.' Interestingly, Moubayed lists three reasons why this will soon be no more, and the two cities will kick up a fuss. These are the increasing levels of unemployment, lack of community leaders and demographics, where Damascus is described as the 'melting point of all Syrians.

The importance of the elites is certain, however their actions in the coming weeks or months are not. I believe that change, perhaps in overthrowing the al-Assad government, will orginate from this body.

Defence Minister Switched Then Killed

2011-08-09T12:54:00.001Z

This is the question circulating in Syria at the moment. President Bashar al-Assad's Defence Minister, who was replaced yesterday (Monday), has been found dead in his home today. Reports from authorities say that he was suffering a deterioration in his health, and that his illness was the cause of his dismissal. His death, reported by the opposition and activists, is yet to be confirmed, but otherwise presents and interesting coincidence.

It has been suggested by London daily al-Sharq al-Awsat that General Ali Habib was axed from the Syrian government as a result of his objection to military intervention in Hama, which has resulted in the death of hundreds of civilians. This is because he believed it would lead to soldier defections. Opposition websites further claim that he was assassinated by Al-Assad's men, in particular, Bashar's brother, Maher Assad.

Habib has been replaced by General Daoud Rajha, Al-Assad's former chief of staff. President al-Assad spoke out on Sunday to say that Syria is on the path to reform. The events of this weekend, in Syria and in the Syrian government, demonstrate that this is unlikely.

This article is incorrect! See more recent post on the Syrian Defence Minister.

Syria Surrounded

2011-08-09T11:50:00.003Z

The government action in Syria marks perhaps the bloodiest week since the uprising began this year. The entrance of tanks into Hama and Deir al-Zour has caused the deaths of hundreds of people this weekend. As the brutality appears to continue, the neighbours around Syria are placing pressure on President al-Assad's regime and condemning his actions.

They follow on from a domino effect of countries openly criticising the Syrian government, calling for an end to the violence and an appreciation of human rights. The streets have been emptied by government forces that feel threatened by the possibility of increased protest accompanying the beginning of the Islamic holy month of Ramadan. Residents that have managed to flee the city say that 400 people have been killed over the past 4 days.

Today, Turkey's foreign minister will travel to Syria to demand an end to government violence. This follows King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia who further criticises the government action on its own people. Kuwait and Bahrain have joined these neighbouring countires in recalling their envoys to Damascus.

The head of the Arab League, Nabil al-Arabi, stated that he wishes the crisis can be overcome by 'peaceful means' and 'serious dialogue towards the reconciliation that the people have been demanding.' Al-Azhar, the top Sunni Muslim authority, have also stated that the actions have 'gone too far.'

Pope Benedict XVI also called for Mr Assad to respond to the 'legitimate aspirations' of the people.

The 'strong statements' presented by influential figures within the region are praised by the US State Department, who say they are 'very much encouraged.'

Saudi Arabia breaks silence on Syria

2011-08-08T16:01:00.001Z

In a move unprecedented since the wave of protests across the Middle East began, King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia has sharply condemned the actions of the Syrian regime ‘demanding the stoppage of the killing machine and bloodshed’ and recalling the Saudi Ambassador for consultation. Both Kuwait and Bahrain have followed suit today announcing the recall of their Ambassadors from Damascus. Kuwaiti parliamentarians called on all members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to do the same. The Kuwaiti Foreign Minister hinted at further coordinated action saying “There will be a meeting in the near future for Gulf foreign ministers to discuss the developments in Syria."

Syria is finding itself increasingly isolated as its neighbours as well as regional organisations (the Arab League and the GCC both publically condemned the violence over the weekend) step up their condemnation of the regime’s actions.

Hussein Shobokshi, a well known Saudi TV journalist who has long been questioning the international silence on Syria, sees these developments as a turning point for the future of the Syrian regime. He is reported as saying "I think these will ignite the spirit of protesters and give them hope that the international, Saudi and Islamic, Arab communities are firmly behind them. It will give them hope that victory is in sight... I do not think that the Syrian government's position is reversible. I think it is doomed and we should all now start dealing with a post-Assad reality.’

The text of the Saudi statement reads as follows:

Aug 8, 2011, Saudi Press Agency

"In the name of God the Merciful

"And prayers and peace be upon His Messenger and his family and companions.

"To our brothers in Syria, Syria of Arabism and Islam:

"Peace, mercy and blessings of God be upon you:

"The repercussions of events in sister Syria resulted in the loss of large numbers of martyrs, whose blood was shed, and other numbers of wounded and injured. Everyone knows that every sane Muslim and Arab or others are aware that this is not of religion, values, or ethics. Shedding the blood of innocent people for whatever reasons or justifications will not find a reassuring opening that can enable Arabs, Muslims, and the whole world to see a glimmer of hope except through activation of wisdom by the Syrian leadership and carrying out of its historic role in a crossroads that only Allah knows where it leads to.

"What is happening in Syria is unacceptable to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The event is greater than can be justified by reasons, but rather the Syrian leadership can activate quick and comprehensive reforms. The future of Syria is between only two options: either it chooses wisdom willingly, or drifts into the depths of chaos and loss, may Allah forbid.

"The brotherly Syrian government and people knows the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia's positions by it in the past. Today, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia stands before its historical responsibility towards her brothers, demanding the stoppage of the killing machine and bloodshed, use of reason before it is too late, introduction and activation of reforms that are not entwined with promises, but actually achieved so that our brothers the citizens in Syria can feel them in their lives as dignity, glory and pride. In this regard, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia announces the recall of its ambassador for consultation on current events there.

"Peace, mercy and blessings of God be upon you."

Bashar Is Warned As He Continues to Kill Civilians

2011-08-08T14:00:00.004Z

It has been estimated that the Syrian uprising has resulted in the death of some 1600 people since it started in January this year. More recently, the beginning of August has seen the city of Hama under siege as the government begins a crackdown under fear that the month of Ramadan will bring trouble.

The levels of repression and brutality that has emerged over the past few days detail a government that is deeply concerned and, more importantly, unwilling to reform. Bashar al-Assad, the President of Syria, has been under pressure from all around the globe to stand down. His actions in Hama have resulted in the loss of legitimacy for his government. As well as the words of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, as-Assad has been under pressure from the United Nations.

“The Security Council condemns the widespread violations of human rights and the use of force against civilians by the Syrian authorities.” UN Statement

Turkey has also delivered a warning to Syria to end the bloodshed in areas such as Hama, and recently Deir al-Zour. Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu will travel to Damascus tomorrow to deliver the message that Turkey will withdraw support if the situation is not resolved.

It is possible that 2000 have been killed in the endeavour for democracy in Syria, not including those who have been tortured by the regime. Bashar insists that these are criminals and extremists. The extent to which this number will further increase depends on how long al-Assad can remain in government. According to diplomats around the world, it is not a question of if, but when.

Clinton Condemns Bashar

2011-08-05T15:18:00.002Z

After a week of brutality from the government offensive in Hama, tens of thousands of protesters have taken to the streets of Syria. Activists say that at least 45 have been killed by a tank assault. President Bashar al-Assad has kept Hama under siege in attempt to quash rebel endeavours.

The stubborn oppression has left Hama isolated. Internet and electricity have also been cut.
Some say hundreds of people have been killed, but this cannot be verified as journalists are forbidden from entering the country.

The violence has not gone unnoticed. Hilary Clinton, US Secretary of State, stated that al-Assad has ‘lost his legitimacy to govern’. This is regardless of the fact that the US has previously stated that al-Assad can survive the uprising if he reformed and appeased the people.

Furthermore, the Russian president, Dmitry Medvedev, expressed ‘enormous concern’ over the situation in Syria. Russia has been a longstanding ally of Syria.

President Obama’s spokesman, Jay Carney, also said that Syria would be a ‘better place’ without their current President.

As countries around the world begin to confirm their condemnation of the government action in Syria, it becomes increasingly certain that al-Assad’s continuing time in power hangs by a thread.

A Saudi perspective on Syria

2011-08-04T09:26:00.000Z

This article by Tariq al Humayed the Editor in Chief of Sharq Al Awsat gives a Saudi view of what's going on in Syria. It is interesting and (if you read between the lines) goes some way toward explaining the double game the Saudis are playing in supporting the Moslem Brotherhood.

Global Arab Network - The repeated question: who is in charge in Syria? Is it the President [Bashar al-Assad], or his brother [Republican Guard commander Maher al-Assad], or the political old guard? Everybody is asking this question. There are those asking out of skepticism or suspicion, and those asking out of mere curiosity, whilst others are asking this with a view to questioning whether it is logical for a young, well-educated president to act in the same manner that Bashar al-Assad is acting today against his own people, with shells striking the city of Hama every 10 seconds?

FOR FULL ARTICLE CLICK HERE

Another Day in Hama

2011-08-01T15:11:00.003Z

Today marks the beginning of the Islamic month of Ramadan, and Ramadan is intended to teach Muslims the virtues of humility and patience. However this practice will be significantly tested by the current waves of protests throughout Syria. In fact, the onset of the holy month has created even more tension throughout the country, which has experienced divides and protest for several months. Sparked by the domino effect of uprisings throughout the Middle East, Syria’s situation appears to be either an outburst of sectarian strife or an undercurrent of pressure for freedom. Rating 127/178 on the BBC’s ‘corruption ranking,’ corruption within the Syrian regime, led by the Al-Assad family, is undeniably a great factor.

People are anxious for the overthrow of government and revolutionaries are restless, urging their compatriots to follow on and replicate the degrees of success seen in the Middle East this year. Syria’s experience of a massacre in Hama at the hands of President Assad’s father in 1982, in which tens of thousands were killed, remains a sore memory. It is arguably on the verge of repetition as the government attempts to suppress the emerging tension in its second day of siege on Hama, in which activists say that 130 people have been killed. The considerable level of government violence and intervention, which has been condemned by numerous countries and labelled by President Obama as ‘appalling,’ demonstrates the gridlock of the two opposing parties. Today witnessed the first day of Ramadan and the second day of brutality in Hama, as well as the entrance into the sixth month of protest. Although the future of the Syrian uprisings remains uncertain, it is evident that the stubbornness of both sides in the battle means that government violence and oppression will continue for another day in Hama, and more.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-14363559

Train derailed in Syria: kills driver and injures 14

2011-07-29T13:13:00.000Z

The driver of a train was killed and 14 passengers were injured after a train derailed and caught fire in central Syria, 23rd July 2011. Syrian officials believe that the derailment was caused by saboteurs tearing out part of the tracks.

Syrian authorities quickly seized the opportunity to blame this incident on the uprising against president Bashar al-Assad. They claimed that criminals were taking advantage of the demonstrations to commit terrorist attacks on innocent people. There is no evidence to back these claims.

The Syrian government blamed the unrest on terrorists and foreign extremists. Ghassan Mustafa Abdul-Aal, the governor of the flashpoint city of Homs said that this was a, "clear message" to everyone who says the anti-Assad protest movement is peaceful. The crackdown to crush the revolt has lead to the deaths of 1,600 civilians since protests erupted in March.

The Basharian Way of Democracy

2011-07-25T16:38:00.002Z

The Syrian government has adopted a draft allowing for different political parties along the long time ruling Baath Party. The adoption of the draft, which ultimately forces the government to abandon Article 8 that claims the Baath Party to be the only leader of the Syrian state and society, is seen as one of the government’s few efforts to calm four months of protests. However, the significance of the adoption seems to be rather limited, if not to say ridiculous, as the law appears to forbid “parties founded on the basis of religion, or tribal or regional affiliation”, completely ignoring that these are the most prevalent affiliations in Syrian society; the best examples being the Muslim Brotherhood and the Kurds. Furthermore, the government states: “the establishment of any party has to be based on a commitment to the constitution, democratic principles, the rule of law and respect for freedom and basic rights” adding a highly confusing and contradictory flavour to this farcical and embarrassing attempt of implementing democracy. Whether it will be taken seriously by any protesters remains to be seen, but the chances are that this will just put the government in an even more awkward situation, perhaps even unifying many of the originally fractioned oppositional groups.

A split opposition will not change Syria

2011-07-21T11:36:00.001Z

The Syrian attempt at revolution continues. President Bashar al-Assad shows an iron will to stay in power, while more and more Syrians call for his removal from power. So far, however, the people see no signs of genuine change in the government. Thousands of people are fleeing into the neighbouring countries, despite the Syrian army’s attempts to prevent them from doing so.

Meanwhile the opposition movement is slowly becoming more organized, with a conference recently held in Istanbul between different opposition parties. The conference called for the end of the regime, for the respect of Syria’s different ethnicities and religious groups, and for the importance of keeping the protests peaceful, for instance through the use of civil disobedience. There is also talk about drafting a new constitution, and about preparations for setting up a national transitional government. On the other hand, however, the conference alienated some opposition factions, notably the Kurdish parties, allegedly since the conference chose to use the official name of the country, namely the Syrian Arab Republic. The Kurds are opposed to using the ethnicized name, and chose therefore to walk out of the conference. This does not promise well for the continued opposition to the regime, and indeed for what comes after the potential fall of the Assad regime. The Kurds cannot be sidelined in the creation of a democratic Syria. Furthermore, many opposition groups do not want to have anything to do with the Muslim Brotherhood, which constitutes a significant part of the opposition.

In addition, the government is reported as attempting to foment sectarian divisions within the country, in order to weaken the opposition. They must not take the bait.

If the opposition movement is to have success, it is of vital importance that they stand together, and that their internal divisions aren’t stronger than their distaste of the government.

The flight of Syrian's to a small Lebanese village

2011-07-21T11:05:00.000Z

Knaysse is a small village bordering Lebanon and Syria. Syrian refugees are escaping here.

Previously unknown, Knaysse is where Syrian army deserters are sheltering. They are hiding in this village, out of fear of being arrested by Lebanese authorities and sent back to Syria.

Residents of Heet, a small (mainly Sunni) village located on the border with Lebanon has recently come under intense Syrian military crackdown. The spreading of violence to this village demonstrates how widespread the opposition to President Assad has become. These residents have also escaped to Knaysse.

Shifting towards sectarian fighting?

2011-07-20T12:02:00.004Z

Over the last four months, protests in Syria against President Assad have been non-sectarian. However recent clashes between anti government protestors and the regime in Homs (which is the most religiously mixed city in Syria, made up of Sunni and Alawite neighbourhoods), has seen a shift towards sectarian fighting. The rise in sectarian fighting might be a tactic used by the regime to stir up religious tensions in an attempt to hold on to power within an ever volatile country.

Recent developments in Homs:

At a funeral procession being held for ten activists, another ten were killed. Earlier on in the week thirty people died in sectarian fighting as a result of the discovery of the mutilated bodies of three regime supporters. Their bodies had been thrown in a deserted area outside the city. There are conflicting reports of who these supporters were. The BBC reports that the supporters were Alawites. The Guardian reports that one was a Sunni, one an Alawi and one a Shia. Nevertheless the discovery of these bodies angered Alawites, who subsequently went on a killing spree of Sunnis and vandalized their shops.

If these killings were sectarian in their nature, they will fuel fear of future potential violence between the Sunni majority (who make up two thirds of the Syrian population), and the Alawites.

Irrespective of these killings being sectarian in their nature or not, there is a strong military presence in Homs. There are reports claiming that troops and armoured vehicles are in every neighbourhood of the city, and electricity has been cut in most parts of the city.

Other developments in Syria:

Qatar, previously a supporter of the regime, closed its embassy in Damascus in a gesture of disgust at the actions of the regime.

Developments in cities across Syria over the last 72 hours.

2011-07-18T15:23:00.003Z

Hama:
50 protestors that were arrested were released.

Homs:
30 people were killed. Violence erupted after the discovery of 3 mutilated bodies of regime supporters.

Damascus:
At least 28 people were killed. Mass protests have hit the capital for the first time, which is a direct challenge to President Assad’s regime.

Qutana (suburb of Damascus):
Ali Abdullah, a leading opposition member, was arrested after a raid on his home. He is a writer and member of the Damascus Declaration group.

Al-Boukamel (near border with Iraq):
100 soldiers defected and joined the protestors.

Other recent developments:

• The US embassy in Damascus, and the residence of Ambassador Robert Ford was attacked after the Ambassador’s visit to Hama.
• President Obama stated that President Assad has lost legitimacy, and America has no interest in seeing him hold on to power.
• Secretary of State Hilary Clinton stated that President Assad was not indispensible.
• The Union of Free Syrian Hackers hacked into the website of the Syrian postal services. The group posted threatening message to President Assad, claiming that he would be toppled soon.
• Opposition groups met in Istanbul for the National Salvation Conference. Both secular and Islamic groups were present. However Kurdish representatives left the meeting promptly when the ethnic rights of Kurds were not recognised. The opposition had planned to hold a dual meeting in Damascus but the location was besieged by security forces. The meeting drew up a joint draft declaration setting out the role of the opposition in a future Syria.
• Hilary Clinton visited Istanbul and gave a press conference with her counterpart, Ahmet Davutoglu. She stated that the brutality in Syria must stop, and government reforms must be enacted.

Shadow Government To Be Formed In Damascus – Ready For The Fall of Assad

2011-07-15T11:57:00.003Z

A shadow government is to be formed in Damascus, in preparation for the collapse of the Assad rule. It will consist of, “independent, non-political technocrats” who will guide the opposition movement and anti-Assad protests.

Haitham al-Maleh, who was among the political prisoners freed in March, said the conference in Damascus on July 16 would choose the shadow ministers. He went on to explain that each minister would operate as a leading figure for his region.

The shadow government could bring organisation and (to some extent) unity to the opposition. This would certainly please foreign governments, critical of Assad’s repression, but frustrated at the current lack of organisation and unity to the opposition.

However, the extent to which the Assad regime is aware about this rumour is unknown. Surely, if Maleh were to return to Syria he would be arrested upon arrival? It is certainly possible that the meeting could be crushed upon the orders of Bashar al-Assad.

It is left to be seen as to whether the formation of the shadow government will be successful.

Freedom of Expression in Jordan

2011-07-11T16:09:00.002Z

On Tuesday 21st June, Jordan’s Information Minister Taher Adwan resigned. He said this was done in protest over the proposed laws which he said would restrict freedom of expression and hinder reform.

Mr Adwan, who favoured the introduction of more democratic laws was shocked to see the proposals, which he claimed would lower the ceiling of press freedoms.

The government proposed to introduce much tougher penalties for slander and defamation and have accused the papers of mounting a smear campaign against prominent figures.

But online dissent (Jordan’s internet is fairly free when compared to neighboring Saudi Arabia and Syria) is growing and people are calling for greater reforms and a crackdown on corruption which these proposals, if anything, contradict.

Businessmen are also concerned. Jordan has in the past been viewed as one of the more open Arab states and there is fear that these changes could hurt investment and create an atmosphere of intimidation.

http://mena.ifj.org/en/articles/ifj-urges-review-of-press-law-after-minister-s-resignation

The repressive measures used in Syria

2011-07-06T16:12:00.000Z

There seems to be a great deal of conspiracy and international consensus to leave Syrians to their fate at the hands of a corrupt and ruthless regime.

How is this regime maintained and how is it that Bashar al-Assad is still in power?

The Baath party can certainly be counted as the main reason as to why Syrians are under such repression. Baath translates to mean “resurrection” and the political party opposes westernisation and calls for the resurrection of the Arab world. The party are violent and repressive, producing leaders such as Saddam Hussein (in Iraq) and Hafez al-Assad (in Syria).

The corruptness and cruelty of the Baath regime is highlighted when looking at the imprisonment of Nurreddin al-Attasi (a former pre-Baath president) for 22 years without any charge or trial. Nurreddin was denied medical treatment for cancer which eventually caused his death.

The other means of repression used by the al-Assad family are the Shabbiha. These are Para-military groups working on behalf of the family. The term Shabbiha means, “ghostlike” figures that appear from nowhere and proceed to kill and main demonstrators. The Shabbiha also operate a criminal network throughout the Syrian coastal regions, specialising in smuggling, robbery and prostitution.

When looking at these repressive regimes it becomes clear as to why the Syrian revolution is being repressed so strongly.

Syria's uncertain future

2011-07-06T15:45:00.000Z

Syria’s revolution shows no sign of slowing down and the government shows none of relenting either.Despite calls for reform and opening national dialogue the government has not halted in its violent methods of suppressing demonstrators. Amnesty international has hinted that the country’s leaders are facing being tried for crimes against humanity. Philip Luther from Amnesty International states the disturbing accounts they have heard including systematic and targeted abuses to crush opposition peoples, which is simply not acceptable. The international community has condemned the government; however it is the people of Syria who face an uncertain future. Such violent repressions of Syria’s own people only undermines the government’s legitimacy and make it ever more unlikely that they will accept the Al-Assad dynasty for any longer. The government need to listen to the calls of Syrian’s and move forward with real reform or face an ever increasingly precarious situation where hundreds more lives will be lost. Rights groups say that more than 1,300 civilians have been killed and 10,000 have been arrested since the uprising began in March. Opposition groups need to come together and present themselves as a coherent, unified body willing to credibly oppose the government. In addition, it is important for the international community to be on the same page over Syria. France has been at the forefront of a UN Security Council draft resolution which formally condemns the government. However, Russia, South Africa, India and Brazil have not yet voted in favour meaning that the resolution is at a standstill. Whilst it is undeniably in the hands of Syria to determine its own fate, external pressure would surely aid in pushing along the end of the violence and repression which in time, coupled with the efforts of the Syrian protestors, could bring down the Al-Assad government and bring a democratic Syria.

Hama, Syria: three decades later

2011-07-04T11:26:00.004Z

The 30^th anniversary of the so-called 1982 Hama massacre is approaching. It is unlikely, luckily, that the conditions for a repetition of history are present today, despite the high levels of violence currently experienced in Syria.

The city of Hama has recently turned into one of the main centres of opposition against President Bashar al-Assad. Despite having a significant Alawite population, the majority of Hama’s population, just as in Syria in general, are Sunni Muslims. Reports from the city, admittedly difficult to confirm, claim that tens of thousands of people are gathering in the streets and squares of the city, demonstrating against the regime.

The authorities have used carrots (removing the city’s governor on July 2^nd), but mostly sticks (violent crackdown on protests) in attempting to stop the protests in the city. Although the removal of the governor is surely an additional indicator of the increasingly strong pressure against al-Assad, it will hardly appease the angry population. The use of violence, including tanks, may have more ambiguous effects.

On the one hand, it may effectively kill and silence those protesting, discouraging further protest. This proved successful for the current president's father, Hafez al-Assad, who in February 1982 killed thousands of anti-regime Sunni Muslims led by the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood (the exact amount of people killed is disputed, lying somewhere between 10,000 and 40,000).

On the other hand, although clearly demonstrating a willingness to kill his own people, the al-Assad of 2011 does not seem willing to reach the genocidal levels his father did in 1982. The world is different today. Everybody's eyes are directed at the Arab world, and sanctions are already being implemented against the Syrian regime. Also, no Arab leader will want to end up in the cornered position colonel Gaddafi currently finds himself in. This most likely incentivates al-Assad to increased moderation.

It remains to be seen what will happen in Syria, but in the long run, the Syrian revolt seems hard to both appease and quash.

Syrian National Dialogue Conference

2011-07-04T10:22:00.006Z

President Al-Assad of Syria has recently allowed meetings with opposition members, aimed at creating a ‘national dialogue’.

Nearly 200 dissident opposition members have held their own meetings in Damascus, calling for a peaceful transition to democracy and an end to the rule of Al-Assad and have now been invited to enter discussions with the government; many view this as a great step forward.

The Guardian however, has been critical, suggesting that this may be nothing more than a ‘PR exercise’. The meetings have not included any of Syria’s major opposition parties or those affiliated with them and this casts doubt on whether or not meaningful reform can emerge out of this.

With protests occurring daily, not only in Damascus but throughout Syria, Ammar Abdulhamid, an exiled dissident, suggests that there is still a strong possibility of revolution.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, many opposition parties have declared themselves opposed to the talks; including the main opposition party in Syria, the Damascus Declaration coalition.

The White House has called the talks worthwhile but says it will continue to put pressure on the Syrian government to end the violence towards civilians, which likewise has been condemned by the European Union.

July 10^th has now been set as the date on which Mr Al-Assad and his government will hold their ‘National Dialogue Conference’; a consultative meeting of approximately 100, again unaffiliated, intellectual and political figures, who will discuss various constitutional amendments.

It is the government’s hope that these meetings will stave off revolution and secure the Ba'ath regime. Whether or not these meetings will placate the Syrian protestors, or whether this is simply too little too late, remains to be seen.

What is clear is that this is not a true ‘opposition meeting’, but merely meetings with groups of citizens that include a few opposition members.

A step closer towards Justice?

2011-07-01T11:24:00.002Z

Progress has been made in seeking retribution for the killing of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in 2005. The UN has issued four arrest warrants, which include members of Hezbollah. However the question is whether the Lebanese government will have the courage to arrest and try the defendants. The government has 30 days to serve out the arrest warrants.

Hezbollah has always said that it would retaliate if any of its members were convicted. It states the tribunal is a plot orchestrated by the US, Israel and France.

The issue for the Lebanese government is to balance the need of justice in arresting and convicting the defendants, and ensuring that sectarian unrest does not explode as a result of naming them. Given that Hezbollah is part of the new Lebanese government it will prove difficult as to how the indicted Hezbollah members will be arrested.

Will the government propaganda machine of President Assad stop further protests?

2011-06-30T14:11:00.002Z

Syrians are fearful that extremists will seek to start a sectarian war and the Assad government is playing on these fears to its advantage to dumb down protests.

In March violent protests broke out in Latakia, a religiously diverse city. Assad’s government blamed renowned Sunni Muslim cleric, Sheik Youssef al-Qaradawi, for inciting the unrest amongst the Sunnis in a Sermon he gave in Doha. In his sermon, Al-Qaradawi, who has millions of followers around the world, said, "Today the train of revolutions arrived at a station that was inevitable it would reach: the station of Syria."

Government tactics to use the fear of sectarian war to squash protests was demonstrated when it blamed the killing of a policewoman and two protesters in Latakia on a group of Palestinians refugees. The propaganda machine stated that Sunnis were attacking, and killing Alawites and Christians.

In a sign of resilience, Syrians are showing the government that they do not want a sectarian war, or care to incite one either in their attempt to overthrow the government. Chants of “One Syria” are heard at protests in a deliberate and direct message to the government that they are not scared to protest.

The relative strength of the various opposition groups

2011-06-16T14:53:00.001Z

Most demonstrators are ordinary citizens, not members of this or that political movement. This applies most particularly to younger demonstrators. Of those who are politically active and that do have an allegiance to one or other strand of the opposition, the following is a crude analysis of allegiance. It is no more than an estimate, given the fact that there is no possible way to measure allegiances accurately:

Youth movement (various loose allegiances): 16%
Kurdish Democratic Party of Syria (two factions): 15%
All other Kurdish political parties: 15%
Rifaat Al Assad (UNDA): 15%
Syrian Muslim Brotherhood: 14% (the MB has grown weaker in recent years)
Various liberal independents (Damascus Declaration etc): 10%
Traditional parties (e.g. Communists / socialists): 10%
Other groups (e.g. Azadi, Salvation Front etc): 5%

Timeline of the Syrian Uprising

2011-06-15T16:28:00.001Z

The following is a subjective take on the key events:

The Syrian Reform Group based in America and led by Faride Ghadry called for demonstrations in Syria on Saturday 5th February. They were jumping on the Egypt bandwagon. Not to be outdone the Muslim Brotherhood jumped on Faride Ghadry's bandwagon and called for demonstrations a day earlier on Friday 4th February. Nothing happened which was particularly humiliating for the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood.
Facebook pages were established, the largest of which is now the Muslim Brotherhood run group, "The Syrian Revolution 2011" (currently with over 200,000 members), though there are many other small groups such as the English language "Syrian Uprising Information Centre" (3,500 members).
In an apparent response to Facebook activity, children in the town of Deraa started spray-painting anti-government slogans as graffiti on walls. Some were arrested on 6th March on orders from Atif Najib, head of the Political Security Directorate in Deraa province.
A delegation of tribal leaders came to see Atif Najib. The tribal leaders asked for the release of the boys imprisoned for graffiti. In a traditional gesture, they took their headdresses from off their heads and placed them on the table, saying they’d take them up again when the matter had been resolved. By way of response Atif took the khaffiah (headdresses) of the senior tribal leaders from the table and threw them into the rubbish bin. Protests broke out. (Deraa Governor Faisal Kalthoum was subsequently sacked on 22nd March and Atif Najib was dismissed on 9th April - as a sop to the protesters).
On 30th March a widely anticipated speech from President Bashar Al Assad was a damp squib. Instead of heralding hoped for reform beginning with the lifting of the State of Emergency, the President alluded to foreign conspirators - thus breathing new life into the rebellion.
The rebellion began to lose headway over time and numbers involved in demonstrations dwindled. On Thursday 19th May President Obama gave a speech in which he addressed the Syria issue. Demonstrations on the subsequent Friday / Saturday were modest. But the number of demonstrators killed in these smaller demonstrations remained just as high if not higher than those killed on previous weekends. This caused a reaction which resulted in greater numbers of protesters returning to the street on the next weekend. (note however that numbers involved in demonstrations have never been vast - the very largest demonstration being of 50,000).
On 31st May the President issued a decree offering a general amnesty - a pardon for all crimes committed before 31st May. But the measure was dismissed as too little too late.
On 31st May a group of some 300 opposition activists gathered in Anatalya, Turkey. Largely young people and Muslim Brotherhood members, they refused to allow the main secular groups (Ghadri/Khaddam/Rifat) to join them and were themselves boycotted by the main Kurdish groups.
There were demonstrations in the area around Jisr Al Shugur in the North. A number of Syrian soldiers were subsequently shot. There are two differing accounts of these events: (a) The Turkish Government allowed armed exiled Syrian Baath opposition (i.e. Baath party members exiled to Iraq and Jordan following internal squabbles 40 years ago) to cross the border into Syria. They were responsible for the shooting of a number of Syrian soldiers near the town of Jisr Al Shugur on 10th June. Which is why Turkish authorities did not allow a journalists to meet the first refugees from Jisr (they included people with non-Syrian accents). (b) A number of Syrian soldiers refused to turn on the demonstrators and were gunned down by their own side as they fled. Whatever the truth of this matter, Jisr Al Shugur became a new cause celebre.

The generally accepted view is that despite errors, the Syrian Government will come out of this stronger (internally) provided:

There is no coup d'etat
The uprising does not extend to Aleppo (note in this context that Bashar al Assad has not been killing Kurds. He has been very careful not to provoke a Kurdish uprising).

Male Student living in Edinburgh is “The Girl in Damascus” blogger

2011-06-13T13:07:00.001Z

The irony that the blog called the “The Girl in Damascus” gained a worldwide following, and was reported on by news organisations shows that you cant always believe what you read. Whilst blogs have been a key source of emanating information during the Arab Spring, in this particular instance the author of this blog was in fact Tom MacMaster, an American man studying in Scotland.

Syria and her children

2011-06-02T13:47:00.002Z

The official number of children killed in the Syrian uprising has reached 30.

Outrage against the lack of human rights afforded to Syrian citizens during the recent demonstrations has been highlighted by the story of a 13 year old boy called Hamza al-Khateeb. Hamza died in police custody, after being abducted by local security forces whilst attending a protest in the southern town of Saida at the end of April. His battered and mutilated body (with bullet holes in his arms, sides and chest and a severed penis) was returned to his family four weeks later. The Syrian government, totally insensitive to this incident, alleged that he was shot during a demonstration. Dr Akram Shaar stated on state run television “the apparent torture marks were the result of natural decomposition”.

Rather than dampen the zeal of the protestors, Hamza’s death has reinvigorated protestors in Syria in defiance of the clampdown on them by the Assad government. Hamza has become a symbol for the continued uprising against Assad, just like Tunisian market seller Mohamed Bouazizi and Iranian pro-democracy protestor Neda Agha Soltan.

Assad state of affairs

2011-05-25T13:53:00.003Z

President Assad’s attempts to present himself as a man of reform appear to be all talk and no trousers.

Earlier this month, Syria said it was withdrawing troops and tanks from some cities and offering a “national dialogue” with opposition figures. Giving details of the proposed dialogue, Information Minister Mahmoud said President Assad would meet with “popular delegations” from around the country and listen to “their opinions, demands, and visions about what has currently been taking place in Syria”. The offer has been rejected by Local Coordination Committees who say the government must stop shooting protesters and free political prisoners first; the responses to demands have unearthed the emptiness behind President Assad’s words.

Although Syrian authorities have indeed freed several dissidents - including opposition figure Riad Seif and human rights lawyer Anwar al-Bunni - the promise of troop withdrawal has been undermined by reports of renewed violence that came just one day after the proposal, with security forces shelling towns and opening fire on civilians. Thousands of Syrians have fled to seek refuge in Lebanon and yet have not been able to escape the unrest; Syrian tanks have been deployed at Lebanon’s border crossing.

Increasing the pressure to end Syria’s violent crackdown, the EU, the US and Canada have imposed sanctions - including travel bans, asset freezes, and arms embargoes - on President Assad and other high-ranking members of his regime. The effectiveness of these actions is questionable. Arguably, these individuals are powerful enough and rich enough to be relatively unaffected by the sanctions – except perhaps in terms of emotional aggravation. In a show of unashamed spite, Foreign Minister Walid Mouallem said that Syria would respond to the sanctions by strengthening its relationship with Russia, China, and Latin America - to prove to the West that the world consists of more than Europe and North America. Not only are the sanctions apparently ineffective, they have the potential to exacerbate the situation. If sanctions do not work then the next logical step for the West would be a more extreme measure of external intervention. Yet there have been no calls from Arab countries for international assistance; in fact, its voice on Syria’s uprising is worryingly silent. If we are to avoid the mistakes of the past, it is essential that the West acquires a request from the Arab League before any intervention goes ahead.

What next for Syria?

2011-05-20T11:01:00.001Z

Until recently, the West was hesitant to criticise President Assad, due to Syria's strategic importance in the region and fears of possible civil war if the regime were to collapse.

However, in his recent keynote speech about the Middle East, President Obama called for President Assad to lead a political transition or “get out”. Obama said "The Syrian government must stop shooting demonstrators and allow peaceful protests."

A potential power vacuum within Syria, if Assad falls, is worrying for Israel. The emergence of a more radical regime in Syria could mean a stronger Iran-Syria-Hezbollah axis.

No Joke

2011-04-03T09:28:00.000Z

1 April 2011: The State Department has upgraded its travel "alert" to a more significant "warning" about travel to Syria. The Department now advises citizens to defer non-essential travel and to consider departing if they are already resident in the country. The text is as follows:
"The U.S. Department of State warns U.S. citizens of the potential for ongoing political and civil unrest in Syria. We urge U.S. citizens to defer non-essential travel to Syria at this time. U.S. citizens currently in Syria should consider departing. This Travel Warning replaces the Travel Alert for Syria issued on March 24, 2011, updating warnings to U.S. citizens and noting specific security concerns within Syria."

Israel accusations against Syria

2011-02-27T16:47:00.001Z

Some say that Israel is looking for an excuse to stir up trouble with Syria. The Israelis now claim that satellite images showing a Syrian nuclear facility have been released by the Institute for Science and International Security, a US based research institute. They say that the Syrian nuclear facility is thought to be related to the Dair Alzour uranium conversion site destroyed by Israel in a 2007 strike. On Wednesday, Washington's Institute for Science and International Security reported that recent satellite images showed one of the sites to be a "small uranium conversion facility," adding that the site was "functionally related" to the reactor Israel reportedly destroyed in 2007.

What went wrong?

2011-02-13T14:40:00.004Z

The Syrian Reform Group based in America and led by Faride Ghadry called for demonstrations in Syria last Saturday 5th February. They were jumping on the Egypt bandwagon. Not to be outdone the Muslim Brotherhood jumped on Faride Ghadry's bandwagon and called for demonstrations a day earlier on Friday 4th February.

And what happened? There were no demonstrations of any significance. The Muslim Brotherhood were utterly humiliated. Truth is they are very weak in Syria just as they are in Egypt (contrary to Western perceptions). Indeed they were humiliated in Egypt under similar circumstances ("The 6th April Movement" in Egypt successfully called a general strike on 6th April 2010 demanding the removal of President Mubarak but a repeat demonstration called for 6 May 2010 was cancelled by them because they perceived the Muslim Brotherhood as jumping on the bandwagon - this lead to the political humiliation of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt at the time).

That is not to say that they would not garner support in a genuine election in either country, perhaps even mustering 20% of the votes. But they can never be the key political force in Syria.

Is that the point? Perhaps not. It was the street, not the Muslim Brotherhood, that led the Egyptian Revolution.

So why then no street protests in Syria? Well one reason is the Syrians were not inclined to join a protest called in the name of the Muslim Brotherhood of course (the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood is already much discredited because of its close association with Khaddam, the much hated former Vice President of Syria). Another was that it takes more courage to demonstrate in Syria given the stronghold the government exercises. And a third is economic.

Economic you ask? Well yes, economic. To quote the Middle East Association this week, "Syria boasts one of the region’s most diversified economies. With ever increasing competition, the private sector is experiencing growth and a rise in foreign investment. GDP growth is 4.5%, and future growth is expected as Syria’s international standing develops. A substantial increase in bilateral trade is anticipated in 2011-12 as the country becomes more integrated into the global economy. There are promising opportunities in construction, tourism, healthcare, infrastructure, and the energy sector."

Yes but, you say, Egypt has 4-5% growth and look what happened there. Well sure but in Egypt they've had World Bank driven reforms which mean that they no longer run a centralised economy with cheap food prices. Furthermore, in Egypt the rich have displayed their wealth in lavish fashion, living in elite walled ghettos, a world apart from the people. In Syria there is still staggering poverty but none the less the wealth has spread a little further into the middle income groups than in Egypt. Furthermore Syria is a smaller country. Egypt is hugely overpopulated with 80 million people crammed into quite a modest swathe of habitable land.

And finally I guess, Syria is just better run. Less chaos. Which is why Syria gets no revolution. Syria may be vulnerable to a military coup (and that's pretty questionable) but certainly not to a street led revolution. Not anytime soon anyway. Simple eh?

New Ambassador

2011-01-04T21:46:00.002Z

President Obama has used his constitutional prerogative and appointed three ambassadors while the Senate is in recess, including Bob Ford to Syria and Frank Ricciardone to Turkey. Both are good appointments and can stay in office until the end of the current Congress without Senatorial approval.

The erosion of freedom of information

2010-11-04T12:01:00.002Z

The perception is that Lebanon is one of the freest countries in the world when it comes to internet searching and blogging. In 2010 the press freedom index compiled by Reporters without Borders ranked Lebanon above every other country in the Arab world. However over the last year there have been a string of arrests, detentions and intimidation of Lebanese citizens for their online activities. For example in June of this year, four people were arrested for having posted comments on Facebook about Michel Suleiman, the President of Lebanon.

The President and the army are the most dangerous topics to talk about online. Under Lebanon’s penal code, defamation is a criminal offence.

The deterioration in internet freedom is reflected in the fact that some members of the Lebanese government tried (and failed) to pass a law governing electronic transactions. In effect it would have allowed for the warrantless arrest and seizure of citizens.

US accuses Syria, Iran over Lebanon tensions

2010-10-29T23:36:00.000Z

Hard to tell the truth anymore - the Middle East is awash with disinformation. Is this more of the same? It would help if the US sent an Ambassador to Syria for heaven's sake:

Khaleej Times - 29 October, 2010
The United States on Thursday accused Syria and Iran of fuelling tensions in Lebanon, which a top UN envoy called part of a “hurricane blowing up” in the Middle East.
The United States said Syria was illicitly arming Hezbollah and other militias and showing “flagrant disregard” for the country’s independence. Syria rejected the attack.

Voice of Reason amongst 'False Witnesses' Accusations

2010-10-12T14:10:00.000Z

The question of false testimonies in the International Tribunal investigating Rafiq Hariri’s assassination has driven another wedge between the political parties of Lebanon.

But today Samir Geagea, leader of the Lebanese Forces party, voiced what most people were thinking: only the investigating judge is entitled to pronounce a witness as ‘false’.

The complaints made by Hezbollah and its allies against the veracity of witness statements are more probably an attempt to sabotage the tribunal; the results of which, expected this month, are likely to point the finger at members of the opposition party.

Geagea also stated that the principal grounds for civil strife in the region come from Hezbollah’s enlarged cache of weapons.

Issue of False Witnesses Splits Lebanese Government

2010-10-11T15:12:00.001Z

Future Movement MP Nouhad Mashnouq called for Prime Minister Saad Hariri to commit political suicide and stand down in response to the deadlock facing the government caused by continued quarrelling over the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, which is investigating the 2005 assassination of his father and former Prime Minister, Rafiq Hariri.

Amongst other contentious issues is that of false witnesses. The government is split as to when to try these witnesses: before or after the denouement of the UN tribunal.

There is anticipation of “irreversible damage that could not be corrected” if this issue continues to stir conflict on the Lebanese scene.

The disagreement emerged over the weekend following a report by Justice Minister Ibrahim Najjar in which he said the Justice Council lacks authority to look into the false witnesses' issue since its role "is restricted to crimes committed against state security, spying activities, murders that relate to international law and undermining the state's authority."

Those wishing to delay any trial claim postponement will protect the identity of any witnesses who are to testify before the International tribunal.

Hezbollah questions the neutrality of the tribunal calling that false witnesses be tried before the publishing of any indictments.

Sheik Hassan Nasrallah cited the case of four former Lebanese generals jailed for nearly four years in connection with the killing before being released for lack of evidence last year. He noted that the court agreed to let one general see his secret case file, but the prosecutor, Daniel Bellemare, appealed the decision.

While some analysts said opposition ministers might withdraw from the Cabinet over the impasse, others dismissed the possibility of bringing down the government since “it would be impossible to form one excluding Hariri.”

“Hariri is the leader of the largest parliamentary bloc and the only leader of the Sunnis in Lebanon and thus no wise man can think of forming a Cabinet without him,” Mashnouq said.

Ahmadinejad visit a provocation

2010-10-11T11:51:00.001Z

Given the volatility of relations between Hezbollah and Israel, the visit of Ahmadinejad to Lebanon (his first since taking office since 2005) is a great worry to Israel, due to the provocative nature of the visit. It serves to boost Hezbollah’s popularity within Lebanon and is a blatant attempt by Ahmadinejad to prove that Iranian influence in the region is strong despite Washington's threats that Tehran's nuclear program will lead to more sanctions and more isolation.

This symbolic visit is dangerous because of the on-going fractious nature of national politics in Lebanon, and the imminent indictments expected to be issued against Hezbollah in relation to the 2005 assassination of Rafik al-Harari. Whilst Hezbollah has seats in parliament, it is pitted against the Western-backed coalition government, and the timing of this visit threatens to bring down the fragile unity government. Political rivals of Hezbollah claim that Ahmadinejad is seeking to transform Lebanon into "an Iranian base on the Mediterranean."

UNIFIL INVESTIGATION FINDS RECENT BORDER 'INCIDENT' WAS UNPROVOKED...

2010-09-01T14:30:00.004Z

Investigations have been carried out by Lebanese UN authorities following the worst incident to occur at the Israeli-Lebanese border since 2006. They have concluded that the attack was unprovoked, after it was discovered that an Israeli officer was shot several hundred metres before the border and had not, as the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) claimed, crossed it. Two members of the LAF were also killed and a journalist.
Ironically, it seems that debate over the position of the trees that the Israelis were cutting down led to the incident taking place. Claiming that the Israeli soldiers carrying out the maintenance work had crossed the border, the LAF opened fire on the officer's who were observing nearby, provoking speculation that this was a planned attack and completely unprovoked.
UNIFIL commander Major-General. Alberto Asarta Cuevas is keen to promote the feeling on both sides that the incident 'remains an isolated event.' It it clear that he does not wish it to become yet another spark, flickering dangerously near the increasingly volatile tensions in the area.
It is incredibly sad that people lost their lives over such a seemingly small and might I add, stupid geographical 'error.' The situation is so close to breaking point that even random events such as this could tip the balance into chaos and greater loss of life. Both sides need to show more discipline and restraint. Ask questions first, shoot later.

Al Niqab banned in Syria

2010-08-25T15:38:00.001Z

While attention has been on the efforts of European countries (notably France) to ban the Al Niqab, the Syrian government quietly announced in July that woman wearing the Al Niqab will not be allowed to teach or study in universities. This decision reflects governmental concern over a perceived shift among the population toward a more liberal brand of conservative Islam. (The ban does not affect the Hijab, which many Syrian women wear).

Mohammed Hussein Fadlallah: Some Sense at Last

2010-07-12T16:18:00.006Z

In the last week the UK ambassador to Lebanon as well as an CNN Middle East Editor have been censured for their positive comments in relation to Mohammed Hussein Fadlallah since his death on the 4th July (the latter lost their job altogether).

The first part of this excellent blog by Andrew Exum is well-reasoned and addresses the issue in a manner that somewhat been missing in the last week:

Two Quick Thoughts on Unrelated Topics

July 8, 2010 Posted by Abu Muqawama - 11:22am 68 Comments

A CNN editor trying to express her admiration for Grand Ayatollah Muhammad Hussein Fadlallah on Twitter is just silly. (The name and title alone are 42 characters!) One should not try and explain what seems to have been a nuanced opinion in a text message. Firing her for it, though, also seems silly. Also silly, though, is continuing to describe Fadlallah as Hizballah's spiritual mentor. That may have been kind of true in the 1980s but has probably not been the case since then. My guess is that the young and relatively undistinguished religious scholars who formed Hizballah's leadership in the early 1980s -- Musawi, Tufaili, Nasrallah, etc. -- needed someone of high religious stature like Fadlallah to beef up their Islamic bona fides.* Fadlallah, in turn, benefited from his relationship with Hizballah within civil war-era Lebanon. By the 1990s, though, both groups more or less outgrew one another. Fadlallah no longer needed Hizballah's support, and Hizballah no longer needed his blessing. Both Fadlallah and Hizballah had enough stature to stand on their own. Even Martin Kramer, who once wrote a long monograph on the man titled "Oracle of Hizballah", is highly sensitive to the way in which Fadlallah's stature and relationship with Hizballah has changed over time. Personally, I think Hizballah and Fadlallah are best understood as separate if overlapping phenomena within Shia Lebanon. Fadlallah's ministry and activities, for example, long precede those of Hizballah.

*I should add here that I am hardly the only person who has come to this conclusion. I do not have any citations handy, but I do not want to be accused of plagiarizing someone else's research either. So let me just say, again, that my take on this is not unique

It can be seen in its original format at:

http://www.cnas.org/blogs/abumuqawama/2010/07/two-quick-thoughts-unrelated-topics.html

Half a decade on from the "Cedar Revolution": What has changed?

2010-07-05T10:52:00.000Z

Following the assasination of Rafik Hariri in February 2005 and the unprecedented mass demonstration in Beirut against Syria's overt influence over Lebanese politics, commentators familiar to the region heralded it as landmark in Lebanon's crisis-ridden history. The withdrawal of Syrian armed units from Lebanon as well as a promise from Bashar Al-Asad that the new political landscape in Lebanon would be respected, in particular, seemed to mark a divergence from the past. Nonetheless, much like the renaissance that Syria and its political elite has enjoyed since the dark days of 2005 (principally, a recognition of the fact that Syria is integral to any future Arab-Israeli Peace), the changes that Lebanon experienced in 2005 have also dramatically altered. There are many indications that seem to show that the crassly named "Cedar Revolution" was far from what its name suggested.

Saad Hariri's external and internal support, manifested in the March 14 coalition, has melted away as regional powerhouses such as Saudi Arabia have willingly prioritized reconciliation with Syria over respecting Lebanese sovereignity. In turn, those humbling treks that Nicholas Blanford impressively documents in Killing Mr. Lebanon have also resumed. Most notably, Walid Jumblatt, who once described Bashar Al-Asad as a butcher has made several trips to Damascus to meet Bashar and discuss the future of Lebanon (similarly, Saad Hariri has taken several members of the Lebanese cabinet in a similar vein to Damascus). Syria's proxy Hezbollah also continues to go from strength to strength in Lebanese politics. And within the March 8 alliance, Hezbollah wields 13 seats out of a total of 57 and there is no doubt that its arms gives Hezbollah additional influence to act on Syria's behalf (although this relationship is far from one of subservience). Even Grand Ayatollah Mohammed Hussein Fadlallah, who died yesterday, and is widely credited with being a spiritual guide for Hezbollah, recognized that Lebanon would be persistantly weak whilst the "state within a state" syndrome was perpetuated by Hezbollah. The simple reality is that many of the gains, such as the removal of the divisive and corrupt Rustem Ghazali (former head of Syrian intelligence in Lebanon) pale in comparison to the reality that Syria has been allowed to reassert itself in Lebanese politics as a consequence of regional powerplays that do not prioritize Lebanese sovereignity.

The paradox faced by the Obama administration and regional allies such as Saudi Arabia is thus: by reconciling themselves with the Syrian government in order to advance the Arab-Israeli Peace Process, isolate Iran and encourage Syria to curb its support for groups such as Hezbollah, Bashar Al-Asad and his advisors get more breathing space to act as they please to undermine Lebanon and consequently Israel's unease increases - making it more likely that another war on Lebanese soil will occur (although political commentators now see 2011 as a more likely year for confrontation given that Israel is aware of international opinion in light of the flotilla crisis). Thus, despite Obama's Cario's Speech that marked a new beginning, his administration like countless others before it is now coming to realize the intracacies of Middle Eastern politics.

Ribal moves into the limelight

2010-07-01T21:38:00.000Z

Interesting to see Ribal al Assad moving out of the shadows and into the limelight of late. The son of Dr Rifat Al Assad who heads the United Nationals Allaince, he is opposition of course. And of late he's been the most active of all the various opposition figures.

Click here >>>>>>>>>>>>>

Seducing Syria

2010-02-23T15:05:00.003Z

The Syrian opposition are upset about the USA's outreach to Syria (Bill Burns the US State Department heavy is visiting Damascus). They are concerned that it means we no longer oppose the Syrian government. But we have bigger fish to fry and that means bringing Syria back into the Western camp at almost any cost because that will weaken Iran. But does weakening Iran reduce the risk of another Mid East war - or increase it?

The Obama administration last week made a major diplomatic opening to Syria. It dispatched Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs William Burns to Damascus for talks, thereby elevating the level of diplomatic contact and further making good on a pledge to engage with countries that George W. Bush s administration shunned.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Conspiracy Theories

2010-02-20T15:41:00.002Z

Well this about beats all when it comes to conspiracy theories. What do you think? This was sent over to us by RPS (the Syrian opposition group):

Assad's Intelligence Services Helped Kill al-Mabhouh
"If you question what Assad has given-up in return for US appeasement, then look no further than the killing of al-Mabhouh RPS believes was facilitated by Syrian intelligence in cooperation with the west. Notice the silence of the Iranian regime due to Iranian coordination with Assad knowing that less pressure on Syria will help Assad, clandestinely, further Iranian influence as we have seen in Syrian training on the SA-2 missiles of Hezbollah on Syrian soil and Syrian intransigence on a nuclear program Iran may well be the ultimate beneficiary."

Rights of women in Syria

2009-11-20T14:44:00.000Z

In a country that boasts being a signatory of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and The Convention on the Elimination of all Forms of Discrimination against Women, a recent decision made by a Syrian court was made in direct violation of the Syrian constitution, which guarantees the right to live to all citizens, male or female, and therefore undermining the position of women, and honour killings in Syrian society.

A Syrian judge acquitted a young man who killed his sister. Due to the fact that the murder was motivated by honour (because the brother argues that his sister fled with her lover), his sentence has reduced. However, he had already spent some time in custody- which counted towards his punishment. Therefore he was free to walk the streets straight away. This is irrespective of the fact that the murder was premeditated- as the brother had bought a razor to kill his sister before travelling to Damascus to commit the crime.

No justice has been brought to the sister- whose killer is now able to walk the streets of Damascus. This is due to an oversight by the judges who gave more merit to the argument of a motivation of honour killings than the cold hard facts of the case.

Saudi Arabia, Syria call for a unity govt in Lebanon

2009-10-09T22:47:00.002Z

Some good news for a change. The Saudis and the Syrians seem to be settling their differences

Saudi Arabia and Syria called Thursday for the formation of a national unity government in Lebanon. They also backed the Yemeni government in its ongoing efforts to reinforce peace and stability across the country.

Iraq: Syria - Iraq squabble continues

2009-09-20T20:37:00.000Z

This is getting messy. RPS writes: the Defense and Security Committee of the Iraqi Parliament is heading for the Security Council to invoke Chapter VII proceedings against Syria. Chapter VII gives the UN the mandate to use force. Iraq is also attempting to initiate an international tribunal similar to the one enforced by Lebanon for the murder of Rafik Hariri.
It is unlikely that Iraq can pull a Chapter VII from the UN even if supported by the US.

Iraq: Syria - Iraq squabble continues

Political Stalemate in Lebanon

2009-09-17T14:39:00.001Z

On September 10th, Saad Hariri tendered his resignation as Lebanese Prime Minister, citing difficulties in forming a consensus government. Though not unexpected, reactions to the resignation have varied widely. Some see such a dramatic step as potentially ushering in a new round of sectarian violence, similar to that which left over 100 dead in May 2008. Others, notably L’Orient Le Jour view Hariri’s action as purely an act of political showmanship, since his command of a parliamentary majority ensured his will re-appointment by President Michel Suleiman.

Hariri has suffered enormous difficulty in forging a government which satisfies all parties, a problem which he and his supporters blame largely on the intransigence of elements within the pro-Syrian March 8th coalition, particularly Hezbollah and Michel Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement. Hariri has argued that despite making concessions which were unpopular within his own power-base (particularly with the right-wing Kataeb and Lebanese Forces parties), the Hezbollah-FPM have kept imposing new conditions which make the formation of a functioning government impossible. In particular, debate has revolved around the means by which ministerial posts will be designated, with Hariri attempting to compromise on 15 posts for the March 14th alliance (reflecting their Parliamentary majority following the June 7th elections), 10 posts for the March 8th opposition, and 5 selected by the President. Michel Aoun has also proved inflexible in demanding that his son-in-law Gebran Bassil regain his 2008 post as telecommunications minister. Hariri’s clear frustration was shown in his resignation speech when he stated that he would not allow the post of Prime Minister to become a “mail box” which merely accepts the demands of parties as to who is awarded roles in the national cabinet.

Aside from the difficulties which have dogged his short tenure as Prime Minister, Hariri’s resignation had a more proactive purpose. He actively sought to be re-nominated by President Suleiman following the President’s consultation with the leaders of the various Parliamentary blocs, which took place earlier this week. That this is was his objective all along is not in doubt, despite Al-Mostaqbal MP Ammi Houri’s claim in the Daily Star on Saturday 12th that “Hariri has not decided yet if he wants to be re-designated”. On Sunday, Hariri laid down the law, affirming that although in a democracy no-one had to re-nominate him, he would treat those who did not nominate him “as he treated me before my nomination” once he returned to his post. This does not bode well for the cabinet prospects of Mr. Bassil.

Despite apparent political stalemate, there appears to be a general unwillingness on all sides to countenance a return to the violence that last erupted in May 2008. Rhetoric on all sides has veered away from the threat of direct action.

Hezbollah, not usually a party to mince words when developments meet with its disapproval, has delivered a relatively muted statement through its Deputy Secretary General Sheikh Naim Qassem. Its current stance is limited to voicing its concern that any Prime Minister in the immediate future will face the same problems as Hariri, since “mutual concessions” are required to deal with Lebanon’s complex sectarian make-up. He added that Hezbollah would impose four rules for contribution to the formation of a cabinet – Implementation of the “15-10-5” formula, the participation of all opposition parties in any future cabinet, “flexible dialogue and concessions” during the cabinet-forming process, and application of the principle that a parliamentary majority should not necessarily be reflected in a cabinet majority. In other words, the March 14th movement’s success on June 7th should count for very little. What Hezbollah’s actual response would be should Hariri refuse to back down further following a reinstatement is not clear.

Hariri has more explicitly opposed direct action, warning at an iftar dinner on September 12th against politically motivated disruption. The stance of his Christian allies is more forceful, but also eschews actual violence. Following a mass to commemorate the assassination of Bashir Gemayel in 1982, his widow Solange, herself a former Kataeb MP, stated that the “absolute majority of steadfast Lebanese” would not let the country be drawn into a constitutional crisis and accused the opposition of seeking to prevent a national unity cabinet “by force of arms”.
Some hope may be drawn from parties’ apparent unwillingness to engage in the sort of political posturing which could lead to a sudden eruption of violence in the style of May 2008. AUB Political Science professor Karim Maldessi, quoted in the Daily Star, seemed confident that “no one, either in Lebanon or abroad, has an interest in seeing fighting resuming in the streets”.

Despite the apparent wish for calm on all sides, there are a number of factors which, combined with the potentially fractious internal political climate, are potentially causes for concern should a strong, functioning national unity government not be formed soon.

The first of these, as Makdessi points out, is tension between the main players in the region. Saudi Arabia and the United States both back Hariri’s coalition, while Syria and Iran support the March 8th movement. The tension between the four could lead to their indulging in the old game of using Lebanon as a proxy battleground. Saudi Arabia has already been implicated by some in the encouragement and funding of radical Sunni groups in the country as a counterweight to Iran and Syria’s long-established support of Shi’ite Hezbollah and Amal. Such Sunni groups have become increasingly active in Lebanon the past few years; taking unilateral action against Israel, confronting the Lebanese army and attempting to target UNIFIL troops in the South. It is unlikely that they would feel strong enough to challenge Hezbollah directly, but should Sunni feel dissatisfied with the current democratic quagmire then support for these groups may grow, and with a growth of support may come an upsurge in operations.

The other potential cause for worry is Israel. Although Israel’s action since 2006 has been limited to shelling and airstrikes in response to militants’ launch of rockets over the border, the tone of its leaders has made it clear that it is the government of Lebanon, rather than militant groups themselves, who Israel will blame for attacks should Hezbollah be included in any national unity cabinet. Should Israel feel at any point in the near future that it has been pushed too far, then it would be perfectly capable of launching the kind of attacks on major Lebanese cities which may push Lebanon towards further unrest.

Iraq bombings widen rift with Syria

2009-09-04T15:31:00.000Z

According to the Iraqi government, 90% of the foreign fighters involved in attacks within the country have travelled through or are based in Syria.

It is hard to verify these figures absolutely, but they come as no great surprise. The Iraq-Syria border is relatively porous, with close relations between Sunni tribes based on both sides. Furthermore, the Syrian government is known for its suspicion of its US-backed Iraqi counterpart. Conditions are ideal for any budding cross-border militant group.

Over the past few weeks, events have been reaching a head. Relations between Iraq and Syria have shifted from a cautious detente to full-blooded rhetorical sparring. On Wednesday August 19th, half a dozen ministries in Baghdad, as well as the cabinet office, were struck by combined car bomb and rocket attacks. Close to 100 died and 300 were wounded. Iraq’s Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki blamed Syria, demanding its government hand over the operation’s planners. He supported his accusations with a taped confession by a former Iraqi police officer who purported to have been trained by Syrian intelligence.

Syria, in response, has called the accusation of harbouring terrorists “immoral” and has demanded concrete proof of a Syrian connection. Each country has subsequently withdrawn its diplomatic representation from the other.

Two interesting issues arise from these events. Firstly, aside from a long-standing dislike of Iraq’s government, why does Syria continue to adopt a passive stance towards militants using Syrian soil as a base of operations? Given its past record with domestic fundamentalism, it seems likely that the government would be able to at least drive militants far enough underground to significantly disrupt their activities should it genuinely wish to. That it doesn’t is surprising, considering its recent tentative dialogue with the US.

Set against this apparent reluctance to act, however, it must be remembered that over 1 million Iraqi refugees live in Syria. Ensuring their absolute compliance with Syrian government policy is difficult. Furthermore, the Syrian relationship with Iraq and the US has not solely been characterised by Syrian intransigence. There has been short-sightedness on both sides. In the past, the Syrian government has extended offers of joint security patrols on the Iraqi border to the US; offers which have been declined. In 2005, leading former Baathists were detained by the government and subsequently handed over to the Americans. Little or no credit was awarded for such co-operation. It is perhaps unsurprising that Syria will now respond less than gracefully when it is very publically accused of harbouring terrorists.

The second question is why the exchange on the subject has grown so much more heated in the past few weeks. There are several reasons for this. At the time of the bombing the USA was attempting negotiations with Syria over a reinforcement of security on the Iraqi border, which would facilitate the imminent US withdrawal. Syria, for its part, is eager to lose its long-established pariah status, whilst maintaining face as a nation which stands up to America in the region. Maliki, meanwhile, has seen his previously strong security-based election ticket severely compromised just as his rivals begin to close in for the kill, and must display a bullish front to shore up his credibility.

It remains to be seen how the problem will be resolved. For Syria to take meaningful action in terms of the arrest or expulsion of Iraqi dissidents would be for it to admit that it was harbouring them in the first place. Equally, Maliki cannot back down. This has also left the USA in an awkward position. It cannot invite Syria in from the cold while it appears to back terrorists, and so has extended sanctions. The issue of border security, however, remains unresolved. Iraq’s future stability, should bombings on the pattern of the 19th of August continue, looks far from assured.

Walid Jumblatt - Spectre of Rafik Hariri Indictment “more dangerous than Ein Al-Rummaneh’s bus”

2009-09-01T14:00:00.001Z

Mr. Jumblatt is widely seen as one of the leading trend-spotters in the rapidly shifting world of Lebanese politics. His ominous statement in this case certainly appears to reflect a growing unease in Lebanon.

The threat of criminal indictments issued by the UN tribunal investigating Rafik Hariri’s death has been hanging over Lebanon’s political arena since 2005, but recent hints in the Lebanese press that action was imminent have raised a storm among the country’s varied political factions. That such a strong response occurred despite the tribunal’s denial of indictments in the near future as “imagination” only proves the potential of the issue as a violently divisive catalyst.

Lebanon's political rivals have reached a rare consensus in that perception of a wrong choice by the tribunal will lead to violence. Hezbollah have recently dismissed a report in Der Spiegel claiming that they were behind Hariri’s death as a “fabrication”, and Hassan Nasrallah has made thinly veiled threats to repeat his movement’s takeover of Beirut in May 2008 on a larger scale should the tribunal’s findings lay the blame at his feet.

On the other side of the coin, Mustafa Alloush, a former legislator close to Saad Hariri, has threatened violence in return should Hezbollah attempt to “cover up” the tribunal’s findings.
Syria, for its part, another favourite culprit for Hariri’s death, waded in last week with a particularly garbled statement in Al-Akhbar newspaper, declaring its intention to force the UN Security Council:

“...not to ignore any fraud operation that has occurred, whether with interrogators who have worked in investigation commissions or figures with political links to the team that has filed a lawsuit and is involved in throwing accusations against Syria”.

Whether it will take any more substantive action is open to debate.

Like the fear of widespread violence before June’s predominantly peaceful elections, it may be that the fear of a definitive announcement by the UN tribunal will actually be less damaging once it is finally made. For the moment however, there is little doubt that tensions on all sides are rising.

"Hizbollah Attacked" in Border Village

2009-08-28T10:28:00.003Z

According to the Israeli Defence Force’s Youtube channel, footage shot from a watchtower along the border with Lebanon on August 23rd-24th shows Hizbollah operatives being expelled from the village of Mirouahine by an angry crowd. Apparently, the group was attempting to store weapons and ammunition in houses in the village. The village was subsequently left in the hands of the Lebanese army.

The truth is that it’s difficult to see concrete evidence of any participants' identities on the video. If it is true however, then it is an interesting aberration from the norm. The border villages have been considered Hizbollah strongholds since Israel’s withdrawal in 2000, and the group is known for its uncompromising stance on maintaining discipline within its own fiefdom.

Cyber-activism spreads fast in Syria

2009-08-11T11:09:00.003Z

The Syrians are having the same dramatic problems with the internet explosion that the Iranians had. Young people in Syria are circumventing cyberspace controls to do their own thing. It's becoming a pretty unstoppable phenomena.

DAMASCUS - Increasing internet use in Syria has allowed young people to circumvent restrictions on forming pressure groups, despite official action to rein them in.
The country’s private mobile phone operators, Syriatel and MTN, were one recent target. Three months ago, Hassan al-Zarki and four of his friends launched a campaign to press for cheaper calls.
The group quickly managed to gather 5,630 electronic signatures for a petition about the cost of calls - between 9 and 13 US cents per minute. To back the crusade, they urged supporters not to use their phones for two hours on the first day of each month.

New US Ambassador

2009-07-20T14:21:00.003Z

Syria is excited. It gets a new US Ambassador. And it is cock of the walk about the fact that it had to make no diplomatic concessions to get the Ambassador. Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem is happy. So happy he's planning a trip to London next week. We all look forward to seeing him. The worse things get with Iran, the more we all want to do to court Syria. Natural really.

Syria plays with America

2009-07-14T15:19:00.003Z

The Syrians and the Americans are involved in a coy courtship ritual. In the normal course of events it would go nowhere. But given the crisis with relationships with Iran - Syria is flavor of the month now.

Government changes

2009-06-17T16:12:00.002Z

There is a rumour going round sourced to the US based opposition party, the Reform Party of Syria. They are saying that there is about to be a cabinet reshuffle because the President is annoyed with the Foreign Minister and the Ambassador to Washington because the US has renewed sanctions. The rumour has to be pretty baseless as Syria is on a roll with regard to rapprochment with the US - things are going as well as can be expected and the whole world is keen to see Syria back in the fold.

Issues Raised by Journalists: Jamming ANN

2009-05-21T22:29:00.000Z

Important issues are raised by the jamming of ANN. Western nations should consider carefully how best to respond to this before taking action.

Issues Raised by Journalists: Jamming ANN

The disappearance of Nawar Abboud

2009-05-04T21:20:00.003Z

Sheikh Mohammad Al-Hajj Hassan, the leader of the Free Shiite Movement and Rolf Ohler, member of the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) have met for discussions concerning the Nawar Abboud issue.

The first speaker was Sheikh Al-Hajj Hassan who said:

“It has been four months since Syrian citizen Nawar Abboud’s disappearance when he was arrested by the Lebanese Army intelligence in Tripoli on December 24, 2008 and his whereabouts are still unknown. According to the available information, Abboud was possibly delivered over to the Syrian intelligence.

What crime did this man commit to deserve punishment in the form of forced disappearance?”

Mr. Rolf Ohler, member of the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) said:

“We strongly condemn the disappearance of the Syrian opposition member Nawar Abboud, of the United National Assembly, and call on the Lebanese authorities to uncover the circumstances of this crime. We have been provided with information by Sheikh Al-Hajj Hassan and others in this regard, and we will submit it to the European Union and international organizations in an attempt to uncover Abboud’s whereabouts, return him to his family and friends, and have the criminals punished.”

There goes Lebanon

2009-05-03T17:51:00.002Z

Farid Ghadry's Syrian opposition party is grumbling about Syrian interference in the Lebanon election.

Meanwhile:

Others are grumbling about Saudi interference.

At the end of the day the outcome is likely to be a pro-Syrian alliance - and the further empowerment of Hizbollah.

Ghadry Goes

2009-03-29T22:09:00.002Z

Farid Ghadry is resigning as President of the US approved Syrian opposition group, The Reform Party of Syria (RPS). The RPS is one of two key external opposition groups, the other (and larger) being Rifat al Assad's "United Nationals' Alliance". There is also a small opposition group under the wing of former deputy premier Ghadam in alliance with elements of the Moslem Brotherhood - but this has been discredited

Syrian Dissident Killed?

2009-03-28T15:13:00.005Z

One of the Syrian opposition figures has dissapeared, missing presumed dead, in Tripoli in Northern Lebanon. Human Rights Watch have taken up his cause but he was almost certainly murdered. Still there is always a chance he is still alive. Let's hope. He leaves a pregnant wife and young son whose lives have been threatened as well. Sad world wouldn't you say?

Human Rights Watch says that Nawar Abboud, who worked as an accountant for a Syrian opposition group, was detained in the northern city of Tripoli three months ago and hasn't been heard of since.

Syrian Chemical Weapons

2009-02-18T11:58:00.002Z

Chemical weapons are the latest Syrian project according to this Washington Post article. Which seems unlikely (though possible of course). I thought Syria had signed the Chemical Weapons Convention in any case.

To view article click here

Who is Robert Malley?

2008-11-12T01:06:00.002Z

The RPS have sent round a really comprehensive background not on the new Obama foreign policy advisor. He's not as pro-Israel as he's been painted.

Excerpts from John Perazzo's Article "Obama's Road to Damascus"

Washington - Nov. 11, 2008 (RPS Opinion) -- A Harvard-trained lawyer and Rhodes Scholar, Robert Malley is no newcomer to the Obama team. In 2007, Obama selected him as a foreign policy adviser to his campaign. At the time, Malley was (and still is today) the Middle East and North Africa Program Director for the International Crisis Group (ICG), which receives funding from the Open Society Institute of George Soros (who, incidentally, serves on the ICG Executive Committee).In his capacity with ICG, Malley directs a number of analysts who focus their attention most heavily on the Arab-Israeli conflict, the political and military developments in Iraq, and Islamist movements across the Middle East. Prior to joining ICG, Malley served as President Bill Clinton’s Special Assistant for Arab-Israeli Affairs (1998-2001), and as National Security Adviser Sandy Berger’s Executive Assistant (1996-1998).Robert Malley was raised in France. His lineage is noteworthy. His father, Simon Malley (1923-2006), was a key figure in the Egyptian Communist Party. A passionate hater of Israel, the elder Malley was a close friend and confidante of the late PLO terrorist Yasser Arafat; an inveterate critic of “Western imperialism”; a supporter of various revolutionary “liberation movements,” particularly the Palestinian cause; a beneficiary of Soviet funding; and a supporter of the 1979 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. According to American Thinker news editor Ed Lasky, Simon Malley “participated in the wave of anti-imperialist and nationalist ideology that was sweeping the Third World [and] .. wrote thousands of words in support of struggle against Western nations.”In a July 2001 op-ed which Malley penned for the New York Times, he alleged that Israeli—not Palestinian—inflexibility had caused the previous year’s Camp David peace talks (brokered by Bill Clinton) to fall apart. This was one of several controversial articles Malley has written—some he co-authored with Hussein Agha, a former adviser to Arafat—blaming Israel and exonerating Arafat for the failure of the peace process.Malley’s identification of Israel as the cause of the Camp David impasse has been widely embraced by Palestinian and Arab activists around the world, by Holocaust deniers like Norman Finkelstein, and by anti-Israel publications such as Counterpunch. It should be noted that Malley’s account of the Camp David negotiations is entirely inconsistent with the recollections of the key figures who participated in those talks—specifically, then-Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak, then-U.S. President Bill Clinton, and then-U.S. Ambassador Dennis Ross (Clinton’s Middle East envoy).Malley also has written numerous op-eds urging the U.S. to disengage from Israel to some degree, and recommending that America reach out to negotiate with its traditional Arab enemies such as Syria, Hamas, Hezbollah (a creature of Iran dedicated to the extermination of the Jews and death to America), and Muqtada al-Sadr (the Shiite terrorist leader in Iraq). In addition, Malley has advised nations around the world to establish relationships with, and to send financial aid to, the Hamas-led Palestinian government in Gaza. In Malley’s calculus, the electoral victory that swept Hamas into power in January 2006 was a manifestation of legitimate Palestinian “anger at years of humiliation and loss of self-respect because of Israeli settlement expansion, Arafat’s imprisonment, Israel’s incursions, [and] Western lecturing ..”
Moreover, Malley contends that it is both unreasonable and unrealistic for Israel or Western nations to demand that Syria sever its ties with Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, or Iran. Rather, he suggests that if Israel were to return the Golan Heights (which it captured in the 1967 Six Day War, and again in the 1973 Yom Kippur War—two conflicts sparked by Arab aggression which sought so permanently wipe the Jewish state off the face of the earth) to Syrian control, Damascus would be inclined to pursue peace with Israel.Malley has criticized the U.S. for allegedly remaining “on the sidelines” and being a “no-show” in the overall effort to bring peace to the nations of the Middle East. Exhorting the Bush administration to change its policy of refusing to engage diplomatically with terrorists and their sponsoring states, Malley wrote in July 2006: “Today the U.S. does not talk to Iran, Syria, Hamas, the elected Palestinian government or Hezbollah.. The result has been a policy with all the appeal of a moral principle and all the effectiveness of a tired harangue.”This inclination to negotiate with any and all enemies of the U.S. and Israel—an impulse which Malley has outlined clearly and consistently—clearly has had a powerful influence on Barack Obama.It is notable that six months ago the Obama campaign and Malley hastily severed ties with one another after the Times of London reported that Malley had been meeting privately with Hamas leaders on a regular basis—something Obama had publicly pledged never to do. At the time, Obama campaign spokesman Ben LaBolt minimized the significance of this monumentally embarrassing revelation, saying: “Rob Malley has, like hundreds of other experts, provided informal advice to the campaign in the past. He has no formal role in the campaign and he will not play any role in the future.”But indeed, within hours after Obama’s election victory, Malley was back as a key player in the president-elect’s team of advisors—on his way to Syria. Mr. Obama, meanwhile, received a most friendly communication from Hamas, congratulating him on his “historic victory.”

Syrian peace?

2008-11-07T17:17:00.005Z

Walid Muallam has just been in London. His visit coincided with the U.S bombing of the Syrian border village. Whilst talking to the press on that issue he did say that the ball was in the Isaeli court when it came to the Golan Heights problem. Apparently Syria is ready to go ahead tomorrow if negotiations are on the basis of hte '67 borders. Of course Israel has problems of its own getting its act together and heaven knows how Tzipi Livni's bid for power will pan out in the long run. Perhaps Olmert will stay on as caretaker Israeli premier till January and find the courage to do something on the Syrian track in the interim.

More trouble in Damascus

2008-10-10T22:23:00.002Z

Seems there is more and more trouble brewing in Damascus. To start with the Syrian opposition was blaming the Israelis - which was wierd (see previous posts). Now they are blaming the Syrian government - which is weirder still.

October 9, 2008 //RPS News// – The Al-Arabiya web site reported this morning that a fight erupted in Damascus around noon time today between the Syrian Security Forces and unknown combatants. Al-Arabiya reporter asserted that the engagement happened next to the al-Wasseem Mosque on Al-Yaroom Street.

Syrian officer involved in Hariri death killed

2008-10-06T16:31:00.001Z

Israel seems to be trying to distance itself from the Damascus car bombing. Following the oblique accusation in the recent Reform Party of Syria circulated article - the RPS are now circulating this item which links the whole thing to the Hariri death. A bit far fetched perhaps. Their original police implied that Israel did it to get at Syria's nuclear team. They can't have it both ways. What next? They could coved r all their bases and say the Russians did it.

A Syrian intelligence officer who was involved in the assassination of former Lebanese premier Rafik Hariri in February 2005 was killed in the car bomb attack in Syria on September 27, Syrian opposition representative Sheikh Abdullah Hamidi told Israel Radio on Sunday.

Israel tacitly blamed for Syrian bomb

2008-09-30T20:02:00.003Z

Here's a strange thing indeed. The Syrian opposition group, RPS, is suggesting rather obliquely that the Israelis were responsible for the terrible terrorist car bomb in Syria. And their source? The Debka file, an extremist Israel based site rumored to be well connected at the Pentagon. So - obliquely - an Israel group seems to be implying that Israel did this terrible thing just to assassinate someone connected with an alleged nuclear program. Weird indeed! If not borderline obscene. And untrue we trust. Extract from the Debka item below - click for the link:

Our military sources describe rising tension between Syria and Israel in the wake of the car bomb explosion Saturday, Sept. 27, which killed 17 people and injured 14 outside a Syrian security installation at Sidi Kadad on the highway to Damascus airport. The victims were not officially identified. Various Arab sources report that one was a Syrian brigadier who was not named. After the attack, DEBKAfile’s sources raised the possibility that it might have targeted people involved in Iranian/Syrian nuclear activity.

Syrian Commandos in Lebanon

2008-09-14T22:30:00.003Z

The Syrians are becoming active again in Lebanon - especially in Alawite towns and villages. Perhaps that's natural. And certainly Lebanon needs stability - if that's what it takes.

Lebanese and Israeli media are reporting at least two Syrian commando (special operations) battalions have crossed the Syrian-Lebanese border into north Lebanon and taken up positions in seven Alawite-controlled villages.

Deep Syrian-Saudi Rift

2008-09-12T22:35:00.002Z

More trouble. Why can't the Syrians and the Saudis get it together? So sad really - and so unnecessary:

Al-Sharq Qatari Newspaper reported today that Syrian Foreign Minister al-Moallem ignored an invitation by his Saudi counterpart Foreign Minister Saud al-Faysal to attend an Iftar dinner in Cairo where the Arab League was meeting for its 130th session.

Iran orders changes in Syria?

2008-09-06T18:41:00.002Z

The rumour is that there's been a major reshufle in Syria's armed forces. The take is that they are getting rid of the pro-Western military and promoting the pro-Iran military. Which shows, I suspect, how little people understand Syria - even the exiled Syrians that have never lived or visited there. Yes, they purge pro-Western people from time to time. They are worried they might be getting subverted for counterinsurgency, either by Dr Rifat or the USA.

Information received by RPS confirms that Iran has, from direct orders of Ayatollah Khameni, influenced the removal of Gen. Ali Mamlook of the State Security Services to be replaced by Gen. Hassan Khalouf. Khalouf has been lobbying with those who have advocated with the policy of peeling away from Iran.

Goodbye Iran - Hello Russia

2008-09-02T10:52:00.002Z

Have just left Gaza and am in Tel Aviv where the gossip is extraordinary. They say that Syria has evicted Khalid Mishal of Hamas and sent him to Khartoum. I am not sure at this early stage how credible that report means but if so it would mean - in turn - that the USA is now fully engaged in the Israel-Syria talks.

What is certain is that Syria is moving back towards their old friend Moscow. There is not prosepect - from an Israeli perspective - of peace anywhere else but on the Syrin track. So we all take what we can get. For the moment.

Easing up on Syria

2008-08-31T13:05:00.001Z

French President Nicolas Sarkozy is preparing to go to Damascus on September 3 and 4, after hosting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Paris in July. So it seems that the West is at last easing its stranglehold and beginning to welcome Syria back into the international community of nations. Which all bodes well maybe. Isolating a people and a government has never proved a truly effective policy.

Syria in Lebanon

2008-08-27T05:28:00.002Z

From Jerusalem - We picked up a Farid Ghadry e-mail complaining about the Syrian exchange of Ambassadors with Lebanon. I know Farid is opposition but sometimes he protests too much. They recognise Lebanon as a seperate country from Syria and he doesn't like it. Heavens the guy will always be unhappy. Meanwhile the question here is can Bashar al Assad do anything to swing Israeli public opinion further towards peace and undermine Olmert's reticence. One idea is that he grant an audience to an Israeli satellite channel. Might work.

Better news on Peace

2008-08-26T14:51:00.003Z

Again from Jerusalem. Wise council from those in the know here seems to be that all is not lost on the Syria track after all. Bashar Al-Assad has himself acknowledged that what we have so far is talks about talks. And our earlier dire predictions that a Mofaz premiership would destroy the Syrian track may be groundless. His people are saying that he can be pragmatic - even on this. And after all - it may be Leevni in any case.

Syria Peace talks

2008-08-25T20:44:00.002Z

A note from Jerusalem. The word here is that Israel's Peace with Syria lobby is very concerned about the prospect of Olmert's coming resignation. Olmert has handled the proximity talks with Syria personally - by which we mean through his own office. If Tzipi Leevni wins out in the coming Khadima elections there is a chance the talks will still proceed. If it is Mofaz the talks will be destroyed. Olmert could force things forward before he leaves office. There is already a draft memorandum of understanding on the table which he personally leaked to Maariv newspaper. But leaking it is one thing - announcing it and progressing matters is another and Olmert seems to lack the courage to go for the big gamble.

Working Group on the Middle East Peace Process: Israel to attack Syria?

2008-08-21T11:50:00.000Z

Bashar says "Israel always invades, and cannot be trusted, and we are working daily to strengthen our defenses, but we do not know whether Israel is planning a war, and we cannot ignore this possibility... We have seen nothing from Israel but harm... Evil."

Working Group on the Middle East Peace Process: Israel to attack Syria?

Shebbaa Farms

2008-08-15T06:58:00.002Z

It seems Syria is to negotiate it's border with Lebanon - and establish diplomatic relations with Lebanon. But there's a big difference between saying and doing. The Syrians have always hated the Palestinian State but finally a couple of years back they said they'd establish diploamtic relations with Palestine - and they still haven't done it. How long Lebanon. And they say they won't negotiate their border at Shebbaa Farms with Lebanon until the Israelis withdraw from the Golan. What's the point then? That's always been Lebanese land. Why can't they admit it?

Could peace break out between Israel and Syria

2008-07-31T09:52:00.003Z

Well it seems there are still a few people around that think peace is possible - though we get increasingly doubtful here at NCF. Thank God for the optimists. Here is something forwarded to us by ATFP:

By Janine Zacharia Bloomberg News, International Herald Tribune
Published: July 29, 2008

WASHINGTON: Israel and Syria have suddenly found fresh reasons to try to make peace after eight years of stalemate. President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, concerned about the survival of his regime, wants to reap the political and economic benefits of ending his nation's isolation from the West.
Prime Minister Ehud Olmert of Israel, mindful of his own precarious political future, seeks to wrest Syria out of Iran's orbit and stop it from funneling weapons to the Lebanese group Hezbollah, which used them against Israel in the 2006 war.

CLICK HERE TO VIEW IN FULL

Syria and the nuclear issue

2008-05-31T08:25:00.001Z

We are still getting claims in from Farid in the USA that Syria was trying for nuclear power and / or weapons. Seems incredible to most of our interlocutors. Unlikely beyond credence. Especially since the only source for this story is the hugely discredited US intelligence service. But anything's possible I guess:

Washington DC May 29, 2008//The NY Sun - Farid Ghadry// -- The latest U.S. intelligence on Syria's attempt to build a plutonium nuclear reactor with North Korea's help and under the nose of the International Atomic Energy Agency shows that the Syrian threat is strategic.
Intelligence officials recently briefed American policy makers on Capitol Hill of Syria's complicity in developing a hostile nuclear program in tandem with the North Koreans. This should have made it clear that regime change and democracy development is more important than ever in order to deter adversaries of global security.
The Syrian regime, long complicit in a variety of acts supporting terror in Iraq and the region has gone too far with the latest discovery of its effort to build a nuclear weapon with the North Koreans.

Syrian and Hezbollah troops using Heavy Artillery

2008-05-12T23:05:00.002Z

This came in from our friends in America - the perspective predictable I guess - but valid?

Beirut - May 11, 2008/World Council for the Cedars Revolution/ -- As of this morning, Sunday May 12, Lebanon sources from the field reported that a full fledge offensive conducted by Hezbollah and backed by Iranian Pasdaran and Syrian armed groups has been launched against the southern Mount Lebanon on several axis. The Iranian-backed forces are using long range artillery, Katiusha rockets and armor. Hezbollah has massed around 10,000 troops for this invasion of the Druze villages along the Beirut-Damascus road.

Reports confirm that the Commander of the Lebanese Army, General Michel Sleiman, who was appointed under there Syrian occupation in 1998, has ordered his troops not to intervene to help the Lebanese population under Terrorist attack. Sleiman has also abandoned the Sunni neighborhood in the capital few days ago, when Hezbollah and its Iranian militias invaded the city. At this point, indicate the sources, and unless the Lebanese Army intervene, it is expected that the Hezbollah forces would gradually overrun the Druze villages in Aley district and link up with their forces in the Bekaa valley.

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